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Would Exit On StrengthTitle:
Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 25/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
Trading in the shares of Bankia has been suspended in Madrid. Market regulator announced that this was done due to circumstances which might influence normal trading. Bankia is said to be forced to ask EUR 15b government bailout. Fourth largest Spanish bank was formed in 2010 after uniting seven troubled regional banks and currently holds EUR 32b worth of troubled assets.
USD
Natural gas futures declined during late US trade on Thursday after IEA reported that US inventories increased by 101 billion cubic feet on an annual basis last week, being higher than five-year average change of 97 billion cubic feet. Natural gas futures for June delivery traded at 2.707 US Dollars per million Btu on the New York Mercantile Exchange, tumbling by 3.20%.
GBP
David Cameron ...
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What would Greek exit mean for the U.S. economy?
(Reuters) - Uncertainty over the fate of the euro currency is already dampening U.S. economic growth and any significant worsening of the crisis would deal a blow to a recovery that is gradually gathering steam.
Economists estimate that volatile markets and business uncertainty over the fate of Greece and the policy course in Europe is already shaving anywhere from one tenth to one half a percentage point from U.S. 2012 gross domestic product growth.
In a Reuters poll last week, U.S. GDP was forecast on average at 2.3 percent for 2012 and 2.4 percent for 2013.
The direct hit to growth comes through trade. U.S. exports to the European Union account for 19 percent of total exports, and those to the euro zone represent 13 percent of the total. But when calculated in terms of GDP, the share ...
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European Market Update : 24/05/2012
Major European PMI Manufacturing data misses expectations; German IFO Business Confidence falls for the first time in 7 months
Economic Data
(RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e May 18th: $514.3B v $518.8B prior
(DE) Germany Q1 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.5% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.7%e; GDP WDA Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.2%e
(DE) Germany Q1 Private Consumption: 0.4% v 0.2%e; Government Spending: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Domestic Demand: -0.3% v 0.0%e; Capital Investment: -1.1% v -0.3%e; Construction Investment: -1.3% v -0.4%e; Exports: 1.7% v 0.9%e; Imports: 0.0% v 0.3%e
(CH) Swiss Apr Trade Balance (CHG): 1.3B v 1.9Be; Real Exports M/M: -0.9% v +0.2%e; Real Imports M/M: 2.6% v 5.9% prior
(FI) Finland Apr PPI M/M: -0.1% v +0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.4% prior
(FI) Finland Apr Preliminary Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -2.0% v ...
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Markets vs. Technocrats
Forex News and Events:
Over the past few days, the media has been relaying comments suggesting leaders are backing the stay of Greece in the EMU. For starters the G8 stressed the importance for Greece to remain in the monetary union regardless of the discord over how to best tackle the crisis. During an interview with CNBC on Tuesday, former Greek PM insisted that an exit would yield “catastrophic” consequences for the country itself and “far reaching” implications for the EU. During yesterday’s European session however, EU officials stated they have agreed over a teleconference call with Eurogroup Work Group (EWG) that each nation in the EMU must prepare an individual contingency plan in case of an exit. The EUR sank against the USD to its lowest level since July 2010 at 1.2544, down 5. ...
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Asian Market Update : 24/05/2012
EU leaders call on Greece to work harder, June meeting to provide more details on measures; China flash PMI contracts again Thu, 24 May 2012 1:41 AM EST
Economic Data
(CN) CHINA MAY HSBC FLASH MANUFACTURING PMI: 48.7 V 49.3 PRIOR FINAL (7th consecutive contraction)
(NZ) NEW ZEALAND APR TRADE BALANCE (NZ$): 355M V 400ME (11-month high); TRADE BALANCE YTD: -541M V -651ME
(NZ) NEW ZEALAND ANNUAL BUDGET RELEASE: AFFIRMS TARGET OF RETURNING BUDGET TO SURPLUS IN 2015
(AU) AUSTRALIA Q1 CBAHIA HOUSE AFFORDABILITY: 61.8 V 58.5 PRIOR
(JP) JAPAN BOJ MONTHLY ECONOMIC REPORT: Increasingly Evident Japan Economy Is Shifting To Pickup
(KR) SOUTH KOREA Q1 HOUSEHOLD CREDIT Y/Y: +7.0% V 7.8% PRIOR (lowest level since Sept 2009)
(VN) Vietnam May CPI m/m: 0.2% v 0.1% prior; y/y: 8.3% v 8.9%e
(JP) ...
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Asia shares ease as weak China PMI, Greece risks weigh
(Reuters) - Asian shares eased on Thursday as markets were vulnerable to faltering factory orders in China and lack of concrete measures shown by European leaders to tackle the risk of Greece leaving the currency bloc.
European Union leaders, at an informal meeting on Wednesday, said they wanted Greece to stay in the euro zone while respecting commitments it had made in return for its bailout, but have been advised by senior officials to prepare contingency plans in case Greece exits.
The murky outlook for the euro zone and fears that the crisis could derail the global economy have prompted investors to park money in safe-haven assets such as U.S. and German government bonds, the U.S. dollar or cash.
Implications of a retreat in China's HSBC Flash Purchasing Managers Index, the earliest ...
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Gold lower but recovers some ground; trade eyes $1,525/oz
(Reuters) - Gold managed to recover most of the ground it lost in a brutal sell-off earlier on Wednesday even as sentiment and the euro remained fragile as European leaders met to discuss the deepening euro-zone debt crisis.
Gold tested key support levels for a second time in a week as a wave of selling hit commodities, the euro and equities, before bouncing off those lows in New York afternoon trading.
Money had piled into bonds and the dollar, assets considered low risk, on Wednesday ahead of a meeting of European Union leaders later in the day. The leaders are expected to discuss growth-boosting measures and the idea of a joint euro zone bond.
Spot gold prices dropped as low as $1,534.25 an ounce, down over 2 percent, as the euro slumped to its weakest against the dollar in nearly ...
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Global stocks, euro fall on Greece exit worries
(Reuters) - World stocks skidded and the euro fell to a 21-month low on Wednesday on worries about Greece's possible exit from the euro zone, which threatened to deepen the region's debt crisis and hurt an already fragile global recovery.
Nervous investors piled into low-risk U.S. and German government debt, sending their yields lower. The dollar also was favored as a safe haven by investors.
Each euro zone country will have to prepare a contingency plan for the possibility of Greece's leaving the bloc, three euro zone sources told Reuters, citing an agreement reached by officials.
A scramble for low-risk investments enabled Germany to pay no interest on 5 billion euros in new two-year debt amid the absence of new measures to tackle the region's debt crisis from a European leaders' ...
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Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 23/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
German bunds rose on worries that European leaders will struggle to resolve the euro zone debt crisis during tonight's European summit. David Schnautz of Commerzbank AG in London thinks that Europe is unlikely to solve key topics and will probably disappoint the market. The 5-year bund lost 5 bp to 0.47 percent at 10:49 GMT after tumbling to 0.461 percent, the lowest since 1990, when Bloomberg began gathering data.
USD
Crude oil futures declined in Asian session on Wednesday as Iran is ready to invite nuclear inspectors, the move that may ease oil import sanctions. Light, sweet crude oil futures for July delivery traded at 91.27 US Dollars per barrel, retreating by 0.63% from the last session's high of 91.72 US Dollars per barrel.
GBP
Today the minutes of the ...
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