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Dukascopy Afternnon Forex Overview : 13/03/2012
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
European governments urged Spain to implement larger budged deficit cuts to prevent debt crisis from returning to the region. 10 days ago Spanish PM Rajoy unilaterally increased Spain's deficit target to 5.8% of GDP for year 2012 and claimed the country will aim to attain region's common target of maximum 3% in 2013. The announcement was not praised by region's officials who recently signed fiscal discipline treaty.
USD
US federal budget deficit widened more than expected in February, reported Department of the Treasury. The US federal budget balance declined to minus 231.7 billion US Dollars on a seasonally adjusted basis in February as compared to minus 27.4 billion US Dollars in January. Experts predicted the deficit to attain 229.3 billion US ...
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Import surge sends China trade to decade-deep deficit
(Reuters) - China's trade balance plunged $31.5 billion into the red in February as imports swamped exports to leave the largest deficit in at least a decade and fuel doubts about the extent to which frail foreign demand or seasonal distortion drove the drop.
Import growth of 39.6 percent on the year in February was the strongest in a year, well ahead of the 27 percent expected and more than twice the rate of export growth of 18.4 percent that was barely more than half the pace forecast -- albeit at a six month high.
"It's a very mixed picture," said Zhang Zhiwei, chief China economist at Nomura in Hong Kong, who cautioned against reading too much into the data given the underlying volatility caused by the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday that saw a week-long factory shut down in January ...
Title:
Import surge sends China trade to decade-deep deficit
China's trade balance plunged $31.5 billion into the red in February as imports swamped exports to leave the largest deficit in at least a decade and fuel doubts about the extent to which frail foreign demand or seasonal distortion drove the drop.
Import growth of 39.6 percent on the year in February was the strongest in a year, well ahead of the 27 percent expected and more than twice the rate of export growth of 18.4 percent that was barely more than half the pace forecast -- albeit at a six month high.
"It's a very mixed picture," said Zhang Zhiwei, chief China economist at Nomura in Hong Kong, who cautioned against reading too much into the data given the underlying volatility caused by the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday that saw a week-long factory shut down in January 2012 and ...
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China central bank sees room for policy maneuvering
(Reuters) - China has ample room to tweak policy to support credit growth in the face of volatile foreign capital flows that will inevitably see market forces play a greater role in determining the value of the yuan currency, the central bank said on Monday.
Speaking days after China posted its biggest trade deficit in at least a decade, People's Bank of China (PBOC) Governor Zhou Xiaochuan Zhou signaled that Beijing has plenty of scope to relax monetary policy to juice up the cooling economy.
His remarks support well-entrenched bets among investors that China will further reduce the amount of cash its commercial banks must hold as reserves with the central bank, to free up more money for lending.
"There is a pretty big room for RRR cuts," Zhou said at an annual press conference, ...
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Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 10/03/2012
Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary
U.S. Review
Nonfarm Payroll Report Continues to Show Progress
The big headline for the week was the nonfarm payroll report which showed the labor market added 227,000 jobs in February with the unemployment rate unchanged at 8.3 percent. The private sector added 233,000 jobs with the largest gains in temporary help, manufacturing, education & health and leisure & hospitality.
The real trade deficit of the United States widened in December to -$49.1 billion from -$48.3 billion. While much of the drop was due to an increase in petroleum prices, we expect trade to be a drag on first quarter economic growth.
Positive Jobs Report Continues to Support Growth
This week's economic indicators continued to signal a moderate pace of economic ...
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Euro gains checked by Greek uncertainty, ECB eyed
(Reuters) - The euro climbed on Thursday on better appetite for riskier assets as optimism grew that Greece would secure enough private sector take-up for a critical bond swap, but gains were likely to be checked until its becomes certain the deal will go through.
The euro and the dollar were both higher against the yen after Japan's current account swung to a record deficit for the first time in three years in January, driving some short-term players to sell the Japanese currency.
In Europe, indications are major banks and pension funds are likely to take part in the Greek deal, easing concerns about a chaotic default. But some hedge funds and several Greek pension funds are still holding out, injecting uncertainty before the deadline expires later in the day and likely to keep the euro ...
Title:
First Policy then Greek PSI Results
Forex News and Events:
Risk appetite seems to have vastly improved as optimism grows around tonight PSI participation results. Yesterday, FX trading came to a grinding halt after the release of the US ADP report. Following that event, the afternoon was spent calculating the potential participation in the Greek debt swap. Estimates vary with the numbers that we are seeing numbers only equaling to €95bn. This equates to €81bn from IIF members and €14bn from Greek funds. This would put the percentage at 46% with the outstanding balance standing at €206bn. Now there is some flexibility with smaller participants not represented by the IIF and last minute hold outs coming to the table at the 11th hour. But even with optimistic forecasts it seems that the necessary 95% level of participation ...
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Greek hopes lift shares and euro, ECB eyed
(Reuters) - Stock markets rose on Thursday and the euro gained as investors bet that Greece would pull off a bond swap needed to avoid a chaotic default and that the U.S. economy would deliver more upbeat news.
But markets are expected to remain cautious ahead of the formal announcement on the Greek deal, as well as Friday's keenly-watched U.S. jobs report, while central banks are being closely monitored for signs they will keep promoting growth.
"This (Greece) has been the game of anticipation. I think it's likely to remain volatile but overall ... we would be expecting more upside potential moving into next week," Luca Solca, global head of European research at CA Cheuvreux, said.
The MSCI world equity index .MIWD00000PUS gained 0.8 percent to 326.61 after gains across Asia and in U.S. ...
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Euro clings to gains on Greece, eyes on ECB
(Reuters) - The euro inched up on Thursday on the back of improved global appetite for risk, but gains were likely to be checked by nerves over the level of participation by private creditors in a Greek debt swap crucial to its second international bailout.
The euro and the dollar were both higher against the yen after Japan's current account swung to a record deficit for the first time in three years in January, driving some short-term players to sell the Japanese currency.
In Europe, indications are major banks and pension funds are likely to take part in the Greek deal, easing concerns about a chaotic default. But some hedge funds and Greek pension funds are still holding out, injecting uncertainty before the deadline expires later in the day.
Greece aims to persuade 90 percent of ...
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