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Market Drivers - Currencies : 25/05/2012
Market Drivers - Currencies
Today's Comment
As there are no major items on today's agenda, the markedly weaker-than-expected PMI data from Europe and China (as well as lower-than-expected IFO figures from Germany) published yesterday will undoubtedly show repercussions in Friday's market. Ironically, the equity market and commodity market did not show any considerable negative reactions to the news yesterday. The reason for this is most likely a fairly simple one the weak economic indicators will increase the likelihood of a central bank intervention lower interest rates more QE, fiscal stimuli from China, etc. and that will be to the liking of risky assets as they have become almost dependent on such measures to maintain the current levels. The poor PMI data signal that the ...
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Asian Market Update : 25/05/2012
Monti thinks Greece will remain in the EU; China slowdown fears return to front and center
Economic Data
(JP) JAPAN APR NATIONAL CPI Y/Y: 0.4% V 0.4%E; NATIONAL CORE CPI Y/Y: 0.2% V 0.1%E; TOKYO MAY CPI Y/Y: -0.5% V -0.3%E; TOKYO CORE CPI Y/Y: -0.8% V -0.5%E (20-month low)
(KR) SOUTH KOREA MAY CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: 105 V 104 PRIOR (15-month high)
(SG) SINGAPORE APR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: -3.5% V +0.6%E; Y/Y: -0.3% V +4.1%E
(TH) THAILAND APR CUSTOMS TRADE BALANCE: -$2.9B V -$2.9BE
(PH) PHILIPPINES MAR TRADE BALANCE: -$1.05B V -$562M PRIOR; TOTAL IMPORTS: $5.4B V $4.99B PRIOR
Markets Snapshot (as of 05:00GMT)
Nikkei225 +0.1%
S&P/ASX -0.4%
Kospi +0.6%
Singapore Straits Times Index -0.3%
Shanghai Composite -0.4%
Hang Seng -0.3%
June S&P Futures -0.2% at 1,320
June gold -0.3% $ ...
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Fed's Dudley eyes costs of more policy easing
(Reuters) - The Federal Reserve would not want to ease policy more - including another round of quantitative easing (QE) - if U.S. economic growth continues to eat into "slack" in the economy including unused labor, an influential Fed official said on Thursday.
New York Fed President William Dudley, a permanent voter on the Fed's policy committee who is closely aligned with Chairman Ben Bernanke, did not tilt his hand on what, if any, steps he wants the central bank to take at its next policy-setting meeting in June. But he sketched out what could lead to more easing - and even tightening - of the Fed's ultra easy policy stance.
"As long as the U.S. economy continues to grow sufficiently fast to cut into the nation's unused economic resources at a meaningful pace, I think the benefits ...
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Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 24/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
European stocks returned to growth, despite services and manufacturing purchasing managers indices across Europe and German business confidence shrank more than expected. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 1.0 percent to 241.81. Cable & Wireless Communications Plc soared 19 percent. Sonova Holding AG gained 2.5 percent. Bayer AG declined 1.1 percent. U.S. futures and Asian stock little changed. S&P 500 futures gained 0.3 percent, MSCI Asia Pacific index added 0.1 percent.
USD
The US Dollar followed bullish trend on Thursday as Germany disapproves issuance of Eurobonds that may help to ease Greek debt burden. Traders are also cautions ahead of Euro Zone's manufacturing data release due later today. The US Dollar index, which tracks the greenback's performance ...
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U.S. New Orders for Durable Goods Rose 0.2% in April
U.S. New Orders for Durable Goods Rose 0.2% in April; Initial Claims Inched Downward in the Latest Week
- New orders for durable goods inched up 0.2% in April 2012 following a revised 3.7% decline (previously reported as -3.9%) in March. The gain in April matched market expectations.
- Transportation orders unexpectedly rose 2.1% as rising motor vehicle orders offset falling orders for defence aircraft. Excluding the transportation component, orders fell 0.6% following a 0.8% decline (previously was -1.3%) in March and well below market expectations for a 0.8% gain.
- Orders of non-defence capital equipment excluding aircraft, a commonly used proxy for future business investment, fell 1.9% following a revised 2.2% decline (previously was -3.9%) in March. The corresponding ...
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Gold edges up as euro cuts losses
(Reuters) - Gold rose on Thursday, after three days of losses, although the drag of the euro near two-year lows tempered the bullion price and eclipsed data that showed another rise in central bank purchases of the metal last month.
The euro edged higher, having hit a near two-year low against the dollar earlier on Thursday after dire German economic data suggested no country in the region was immune from crisis, spooking investors already weighing the risk of Greece leaving the euro zone.
This offset a potentially bullish lift from International Monetary Fund data that showed another rise in central bank holdings in April, after the largest purchase in over four years by the Philippines and further additions by the likes of Mexico, Ukraine and Russia to their reserves.
Spot gold rose 0. ...
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EUR/USD Cedes The 1.2624 Support
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Fixed Income: Risk off pushes German bond yields to new lows
- Risk off sentiment pushed core bonds higher and non-core bond yield spreads re-widened substantially. The Summit didn't bring new information, but another hole found in Spain's regions' budgets might get attention today.
- Currencies EUR/USD cedes the 1.2624 support
- On Wednesday, the EMU debt crisis was again omnipresent. Markets feared that the EU leaders wouldn't be able to take decisive action to address the debt crisis. Extreme risk aversion pushed EUR/USD to a new low for 2012. The losses of EUR/GBP were more contained, as poor UK retail sales and rather soft BoE minutes kept the door open for more policy stimulation.
The Sunrise Headlines
- In the final hour of trading, US ...
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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 24/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
Concern about Greece "is a big weight on the market and makes things uncertain"
- Emmanuel Soupre, a fund manager at Neuflize Private Assets
European stocks tumbled on Wednesday, after rising by the most in a month on Tuesday, on speculation Greece may exit the euro zone.
USD
"Its very clear now that the housing market has turned a corner"
- Richard DeKaser, deputy chief economist at Parthenon Group LLC
Sales of new U.S. homes rose by more than expected in April, Commerce Department data showed on Wednesday. Purchases increased to an annual rate of 343,000, up by 3.3 per cent from a revised 332,000 in March.
GBP
" employment remains fragile and wage growth weak"
- Ross Walker, chief U.K. economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group
U.K. retails sales declined by ...
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EUR/USD Falls to 21-Month Low
The EUR/USD fell as low as 1.2614 yesterday, a 21-month low, after investors grew increasingly concerned regarding Greece's fate in the euro-zone and shifted their funds to safe-haven assets. The currency pair staged a mild upward correction later in the day, eventually stabilizing around the 1.2655 level. Turning to today, euro traders will want to pay attention to several potentially significant news events. Specifically, the German Manufacturing PMI and Ifo Business Climate may help the euro recoup some of yesterday's losses if they come in above expectations.
Economic News
USD - Dollar Sees Significant Gains amid Risk Aversion
The US dollar moved up against several of its main currency rivals yesterday, as ongoing fears regarding Greece's future in the euro-zone have led to risk ...
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