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AUD Rises as Employment in USA Improves, Threatened by QE
The Australian dollar rose today on the speculation that labor market in the United States continue to improve. The currency was falling this week on the forecast that the Reserve Bank of Australia may perform quantitative easing.
Yesterday, the employment report from Automatic Data Processing showed that US employment continued to grow with steady pace last month. Tomorrow, non-farm payrolls are expected to confirm that, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain steady. Jobless claims report today is also expected to show a stable level of unemployment.
As for the economic environment is Australia itself, it wasn’t nearly as good as the one in the USA, leading to the speculation that the RBA will reduce interest rates next month. The central bank left the main interest rate ...
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U.S. Jobs Report, Manufacturing, Services Data and FOMC Meeting Minutes, All In One Week!
After rocking the dance floor in the first three months of the year, the world's largest economy is stomping into the second quarter, starting April with the latest manufacturing and services data besides to minutes of the Federal Reserve interest-rate adjusting open market committee’s final meeting, then paving the way for most-anticipated repot ever - The jobs report!
With the start of a new quarter, traders are still concerned about the prospects of the global economic growth and whether the largest economies will be able to at least sustain an even economic recovery amid the unending financial and debt crisis the world has been facing in the past decade. Eyes are still focused on news from Europe and further progress in bottling up the region's sovereign debt crisis.
Mostly positive ...
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Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 30/03/2012
Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 30/03/2012
U.S. Review
Mixed Signals
Housing data released this week were a bit disappointing but also offered some signs of optimism. Pending home sales fell in February but remained near a one-year high. The decline in the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index in January was the smallest since July, although the index did reach a new cyclical low.
Personal spending rose in February by the most since July, as consumers dipped into savings to spend more on services. However, consumer confidence slipped in March due to a decline in the expectations index amid rising gas prices, although purchase plans improved.
Mixed Signals
Housing data released this week were slightly disappointing but also provided some signs of optimism. Pending home ...
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The Weekly Bottom Line : 30/03/2012
The Weekly Bottom Line : 30/03/2012
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK
United States
February's personal income and spending report revealed some mixed signals about the U.S. economy. Real after-tax incomes declined 0.1%, but real consumer spending managed an impressive 0.5% increase.
Even after this solid spending gain, Q1 GDP growth is tracking close to 2%, and growth is unlikely to breakout above the 3% range until the end of 2013. This leaves questions about whether the recent pace of improvement in the job market can be sustained.
In a highly publicized speech this week, Bernanke emphasized this theme and made it clear that the Fed is focused on jobs, and stands ready to act if conditions worsen.
Canada
Equity markets ended the quarter strongly with the S&P/TSX Composite ...
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FOMC Minutes and US Labour Market in Focus
The Week Ahead
Highlights
FOMC minutes and US labour market in focus
More QE for the UK
Spain and other sovereign concerns
RBA to hold for now
Market Moves
FOMC minutes and US labour market in focus
The past week has seen a multitude of Fed speakers express their views on the economic outlook and monetary policy. Voting members Bernanke, Lacker, Lockhart, Duke, and Dudley all delivered speeches as well as non-voters Plosser, Fisher, and Rosengren. The main focus was on Chairman Bernanke who reiterated his concern that the economic recovery is "slower than we would have hoped" and that "the job market remains far from normal". The Fed Chairman noted the benefits of continued accommodation and kept open the option for further easing. Markets will look to the release ...
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Session dominated by month-end and quarter-end flow
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK at 0800 GMT (EDT +0400)
WORLD
Price action in Asia was dominated by month-end and quarter-end flows into the Tokyo fix, on this the last day of Japan‘s fiscal year. The euro, and Australian and New Zealand dollars received a boost, but USDJPY remains heavy as UST yields continue to drift lower. We are wary of joining the rally in commodity currencies given the likelihood of a weak official Chinese March PMI over the weekend, and we would expect risk appetite to begin next week on a softer tone. The latest US economic data was uninspiring with jobless claims falling to 359k from (a revised up) 364k. Q4 GDP growth was unchanged at a 3.0% annual rate though. Fed Chairman Bernanke completed his four-part economics lecture series noting the pace of recovery has been “ ...
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Inflation key as Fed looks ahead
Containing inflation will be critical when the time finally comes for the U.S. Federal Reserve to reverse its ultra loose monetary policy, two top Fed officials said on Thursday.
With inflation hovering near the Fed's 2.0 percent target, the focus for U.S. policymakers has been kick-starting economic growth and lowering the 8.3 percent unemployment rate. Still, there are lingering concerns that the central bank's unprecedented actions have sown the seeds for a possible big jump in prices.
"As always, we have to look at the inflation side and be comfortable that price stability will be maintained and that inflation will be low and stable," Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke told students at George Washington University.
"Those are the things we'll be looking at. There's no simple formula but as ...
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Oil slips under $123, release talk continues
Oil prices fell below $123 a barrel on Thursday amid signs the global economy may be slowing, while the prospect of a strategic oil reserve release in the West balanced against concerns about a loss of Iranian oil.
U.S. unemployment claims fell to a four-year low but still failed to meet heightened market expectations, leaving investors to wonder whether the economy can sustain a rally.
Further weighing on oil prices on Thursday, French Prime Minister Francois Fillon said there was a good chance of an accord between the United States and Europe on a release of strategic oil reserves.
Brent crude futures fell $1.30 to $122.86 a barrel at 1601 GMT, extending losses after falling 1.09 percent the previous session. U.S. crude futures also fell, down $2 to $103.41 a barrel, having dropped by ...
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Dukascopy Afternnon Forex Overview : 29/03/2012
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
Thousands of people in Spain are going participate in the general strike against the new reform. The reform stipulates reduction of the maximum severance payment to 33 days' remuneration from 45 days currently provided. The measure is aimed at combating with unemployment and saving billions of Euros for the country. However, labour unions claim the legislation will ease firing for the companies.
USD
US unemployment claims increased sharply last week to 359K despite positive sentiment on the market and analyst consensus forecast of 351K. The latest reading indicates a sharp increase of this indicator, as the previous week's reading stood at 348K.
GBP
The average house price in the UK declined by 1% this month while taken annualized rate home prices ...
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