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Unemployment Claims FallTitle:
Weak US Jobs Data May Reverse Bounce in Risk
The Week Ahead
Highlights
Weak US jobs data may reverse bounce in risk
Debt concerns drill down to Europe's core
PBoC hikes rate but not yet finished as inflation remains elevated
Important technical levels to watch in the week ahead
Key data and events to watch next week
Weak US jobs data may reverse bounce in risk
'Extremely disappointing' is about the only way to characterize US June employment data. After a classic ADP-induced shift to more positive expectations on Thursday, Friday's June NFP data showed an increase of only +18K (exp. +105K) and private payrolls a gain of just +57K (exp. +132K). Worse still, the prior two months NFP were revised lower by a total of -44K, average hourly earnings were flat (exp. +0.2% MoM), weekly hours fell 0.1, and the ...
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The Continuing Delusion of Economic Recovery
“The people will be crushed under the burden of taxes,
loan after loan will be floated; after having drained the
present, the State will devour the future.”
– Frédéric Bastiat, French libertarian economist, 1850
Stocks managed to eek out a bit of a rally yesterday. The Dow was up nearly 100 points by the session’s close. (Approximately equal to the amount it gave back within the first sixty seconds of trading today.) Gold, meanwhile, is up $8 over the past 24 hours. An ounce this morning goes for just over $1,540. And bitcoins…they’re back to $14.50 a piece. Hmmm…
Thursday’s investors were apparently nonplussed by the previous day’s job news. Two separate reports revealed what Fellow Reckoners have long suspected; that the job market is in the toilet. According to the reports, another ...
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US Economic Indicators Preview - Week of 4 to 10 July 2011
US Economic Indicators Preview
(Week of 4 to 10 July 2011)
ISM non-manufacturing index (Jun): set to remain stable
Labour market report (Jun): payroll growth likely to have recovered only moderately
Factory orders, which went down by 1.2% mom in April due to a sharp decline in durable goods orders, are likely to have rebounded in May. We already know that durable goods orders rose by 1.9% mom, particularly due to a recovery in nondefense aircraft orders. But nondurable goods orders might have gone up only modestly, as energy prices moderated in the course of the month and the ISM new orders component declined to a slow expansion level of 51.0. We expect total factory orders to have increased by about 1.0% mom in May.
Whereas the ISM manufacturing index fell significantly in May, ...
Title:
Risk is Back from the Brink
The Week Ahead
Highlights
Risk is back from the brink
US debt debate hits an impasse
The ECB to stick to its hawkish path
Sovereign debt concerns far from over
Sterling losing its luster
Gold looks down and out, but may offer a buying opportunity longer-term
Key data and events to watch next week
Risk is back from the brink
At the end of the prior week many key markets were sitting just above major breakdown levels and the risk was for a severe move lower. But just one week later, risky assets have rebounded and show a potential resumption of trends higher. Is all suddenly well in the world? Far from it in our opinion, and so we view the past week's rebound with a fair dose of skepticism. The sharp rebound in risk appetite was in large part a relief rally as ...
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Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 01/07/2011
Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary
U.S. Review
Second Quarter Ends Poorly - Better Times Ahead
Weaker-than-expected consumer spending and income growth for May are causing many economists to further scale back their consumer spending and GDP growth forecasts for the second quarter. Expectations for a second-half growth rebound remain intact, however, although the evidence to date remains scant.
U.S. manufacturing gains remained modest in June if the ISM manufacturing and regional manufacturing surveys are to be believed. On the bright side, capital and durable goods orders rebounded strongly in May increasing the odds of a manufacturing rebound in Q3.
More Disappointment in the Third Quarter?
Economists are counting on a solid third quarter bounce in GDP growth in part ...
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US Housing Market on the Rise?
US housing data beat expectations yesterday, as the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) released an assessment showing homes that were mortgaged by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac saw a rise in value of approximately 0.8% this past month. The report came one day after the National Association of Realtors published the existing home sales data that also met growth forecasts. The numbers may prove a turning point in the US housing market if growth can continue along this trajectory.
Economic News
USD - Dollar Flat after Fed Held Rates Steady
The US dollar was seen trading flat late yesterday as traders began to seek riskier assets after the Federal Reserve released its rate statement, hinting at no future economic stimulus or monetary policy tightening. The EUR/USD was seen ...
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A mixed week for the superpower
This week unlike the prior one was mixed rather than gloomy as we could say that sentiments of optimism and pessimism were spread as fears and worries were boosted on a global scale and mainly in the EU as it was strongly speculated that Greece aid will be delayed while that prices pressures remain around the same level on the U.S soil with lower retail sales, a truly gloomy manufacturing index and surprisingly cheerful labor data.
If truth be told, prices pressures or inflation remain around the same high levels with May's PPI for instance coming in higher than a projected rate of 0.1% at 0.2% from 0.8% and inclined above market forecasts and a prior reading of 6.8% to 7.3% for the year ending May while that the Core PPI came in as already expected by the market at 0.2% and remain ...
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Escalating European debt woes dominates the scene, UK weak fundamentals continue
This week, the main highlight was not on data from the euro zone as investors were focusing on European leaders waiting for final decision for Greece's second bailout.
The week started and ended with mounting tensions as European leaders failed to reach an agreement over the second bailout for the debt-laden nation.
Still, European officials could not bridge the difference between them to reach a unanimous decision as while Germany is in favor of letting private creditors to participate in the Greek bailout, the IMF in addition to Spain, Italy and Belgium are opposing it.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the French President Nicolas Sarkozy agreed in their meeting in Berlin last week to allow private sector investors to have a role in the second bailout for Greece.
However, the EU ...
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What will the Fed say about growth?
(Reuters) - The U.S. economy has slowed in recent months, but underlying inflation pressures are rising. How will the Federal Reserve respond?
With the global data calendar light this week, that is the key question many will want answered by policymakers at the U.S. central bank after they meet on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Since their last meeting in April, U.S. economic data has taken a decisively weak tone. But at the same time, there is no evidence that things are falling apart.
"The key questions will be about how the Fed views the present combination of weak growth and higher-than-expected inflation," said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts.
"Does the Fed still expect growth to pick up after a soft first half? Is it still confident ...
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