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European Market Update : 24/05/2012
Major European PMI Manufacturing data misses expectations; German IFO Business Confidence falls for the first time in 7 months
Economic Data
(RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e May 18th: $514.3B v $518.8B prior
(DE) Germany Q1 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.5% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.7%e; GDP WDA Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.2%e
(DE) Germany Q1 Private Consumption: 0.4% v 0.2%e; Government Spending: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Domestic Demand: -0.3% v 0.0%e; Capital Investment: -1.1% v -0.3%e; Construction Investment: -1.3% v -0.4%e; Exports: 1.7% v 0.9%e; Imports: 0.0% v 0.3%e
(CH) Swiss Apr Trade Balance (CHG): 1.3B v 1.9Be; Real Exports M/M: -0.9% v +0.2%e; Real Imports M/M: 2.6% v 5.9% prior
(FI) Finland Apr PPI M/M: -0.1% v +0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.4% prior
(FI) Finland Apr Preliminary Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -2.0% v ...
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YouTradeFX Daily Market Analysis : 24/05/2012
Fundamental News
Today’s highlights:
- German GDP (QoQ) (GER, 07:00 GMT)
- French Manufacturing PMI (FRA, 07:00 GMT)
- German Manufacturing PMI (GER, 08:00 GMT)
- German Ifo Business Climate Index (GER, 09:00 GMT)
- GDP (QoQ) + Business Investment (QoQ) + BBA Mortgage Approvals (GB, 09:30 GMT)
- Initial Jobless Claims + Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (U.S, 13:30 GMT)
- ECB President Draghi Speaks (EUR, 14:00 GMT)
- Treasury Secretary Geithner Speaks (U.S., 19:00 GMT)
Demand for new U.S. homes rose more than forecast in April, indicating residential real estate may contribute to economic growth for the first time in seven years. Purchases rose to a 343,000 annual rate, up 3.3 percent from a revised 332,000 in March, the Commerce Department reported today in ...
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Oil drops on Iran talks, brimming U.S. supply
(Reuters) - Oil futures fell more than 2 percent on Wednesday to five-month lows, as a potential nuclear deal between Iran and the West eased supply concerns and worries about Greece's future in the euro zone raised questions about demand.
Further pressure came from U.S. government data that showed weak demand and the ninth straight weekly build in domestic crude inventories, extending the stockpile buffer as the world's largest consumer gears up for the start of the summer driving season.
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Euro Rebound Short-Lived
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Fixed Income: Profit taking continued, but now concluded?
- The profit taking on global core bond markets continued in the run-up to tonight's informal EU-Summit. Spanish and Italian spreads decreased significantly but yields remain at elevated levels. Today, the eco calendar is again thin and trading will again be driven by sentiment.
- Currencies: Euro rebound short-lived On
- Tuesday, the euro came again under pressure even as the global context was not that negative. Sentiment on risk was constructive and intra-EMU spreads narrowed, but all this didn't prevent investors to use any upticks in the single currency to further reduce exposure. The key 1.2642/24 support is again coming within reach.
The Sunrise Headlines
- In the final hour of ...
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Safe-Haven Dollar
Forex News and Events:
Friday’s trading session was mostly uneventful with all the focus shifted to Facebook’s IPO. Many markets that had been freefalling these last two weeks caught a breather, with gold, silver, and the EUR gaining 1.12%, 2.57% and 0.63% respectively against the USD. The reversal has been attributed to a weak Philly Fed reading on economic activity in a sign that the world’s reserve currency is riskier than panicked markets are pricing. The weak number raised speculation over a new round of interventions from the part of the Fed in order to boost its economy. WTI however, was not able to profit from this reversal as it dropped to a six-month low before closing at 91.33. A 22-year high in inventory levels for the US could explain the decoupling of oil from the rest of ...
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SunBirdFX Daily Market Analysis : 05/21/2012
www.sunbirdfx.com
The bearish momentum in Wall Street continued last week as indices shed 4%-5% during the week. The sharp declines were expected from the technical analysis point of view, since the main indices broke significant support in their daily charts, which we have analyzed and marked as key levels. The S&P 500 broke the support at 1350 points and reached the target we set at 1300 points, mainly because of the collapse of the financial sector. The volumes are increasing, which means that the sellers are gaining power, in spite improving economic data and the optimism that spread with Facebook trading on Friday. The three main indices are close to the annual opening levels as NASDAQ's next support is at 2400 points.
EUR/USD
We have been mentioning the support at 1.30 as a ...
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Oil slips and posts third weekly loss
Oil prices fell on Friday in tug-of-war trading, posting a 2012 low and a third straight weekly loss as debt problems in Greece and Spain kept concerns about the euro zone economy in focus.
Crude futures felt pressure from news that European officials were working on contingency plans in case Greece exits the euro zone and from a ratings downgrade of 16 Spanish banks by Moody's Investors Service.
Helping push oil lower early was data showing Chinese home prices in April fell for a second month in a row from year-ago levels.
"The problems in Europe, highlighted by the political instability in Greece, remain as the primary factor for today's slide in oil prices," said Kyle Cooper, managing partner at IAF Advisors in Houston.
"There is also a factual realization that the Chinese economy ...
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Brent hits 2012 low on Europe turmoil, weak U.S. data
Brent crude slipped below $107 per barrel on Friday to its lowest in 2012 as a worsening euro zone crisis and weak U.S. economic data raised fears of a global slowdown that could dent oil demand.
Worries about the euro zone, already roiled by Greek political chaos, mounted as Spain slipped into a recession, pushing the euro to a four-month low while sluggish data out of the United States sent worrisome signs about a still-fragile recovery at the world's largest economy and top oil consumer.
Brent crude was down 64 cents to $106.85 by 2:47 a.m. EDT after slipping to its lowest level for the year at $106.40. Front-month Brent is on track to post its largest three-week fall since May 2011.
U.S. crude was down 58 cents to $91.98, heading for its largest three-week fall since August 2011.
" ...
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Downgrades Day
Forex News and Events:
In a race for downgrades, rating agencies took action targeting the two most burdened countries in the EMU. Moody’s confirmed today a rumor about the downgrade of 16 Spanish banks after having downgraded four Spanish regions, which added more pressure to the the Spanish economy. The increase in risk was reflected by 4-year Spanish Bonos yields, higher at 5.106% against a previous 4.319%. Fitch took over the Greek front by downgrading the country to CCC, adding that all EU countries would be on “Rating Watch Negative” if no pro-bailout government were formed following the elections on June 17. What’s more, while Greek banks are struggling for liquidity from EUR 700mn withdrawals since the elections and Greek central bank governor Provopoulos expecting EUR 100mn more, ...
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