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Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 25/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
Trading in the shares of Bankia has been suspended in Madrid. Market regulator announced that this was done due to circumstances which might influence normal trading. Bankia is said to be forced to ask EUR 15b government bailout. Fourth largest Spanish bank was formed in 2010 after uniting seven troubled regional banks and currently holds EUR 32b worth of troubled assets.
USD
Natural gas futures declined during late US trade on Thursday after IEA reported that US inventories increased by 101 billion cubic feet on an annual basis last week, being higher than five-year average change of 97 billion cubic feet. Natural gas futures for June delivery traded at 2.707 US Dollars per million Btu on the New York Mercantile Exchange, tumbling by 3.20%.
GBP
David Cameron ...
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USD Softer ahead of Holiday Weekend
The dollar is giving back some of its recent gains as traders cover positions ahead of the holiday weekend and after the market failed to break the 1.25 downside barrier in EUR/USD. Sentiment is relatively stable with global equities trading flat to slightly softer, EU sovereign yield spreads have eased somewhat, and the dollar index is lower and testing the 82.00 figure after making new highs for the current rally. Uncertainty remains high as markets lack clarity on key European issues and barring any new headlines, today's price action may be driven by position squaring ahead of the long weekend.
The Swiss franc was on the move earlier with EUR/CHF rising sharply on speculation of possible fees on SNB deposits. Swiss officials declined to comment and the franc regained ground after the ...
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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 25/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The euro zone is being buffeted by major headwinds."
- Howard Archer, chief European economist at IHS Global Insight
European manufacturing and services industries contracted in May. A composite index based on a survey of purchasing managers in manufacturing and services sectors declined to 45.9 from 46.7 in April, said the Markit Economics on Thursday.
USD
"It looks more and more like businesses are hesitating to invest in the face of worsening uncertainties in the and global economy."
- Pierre Ellis, a senior economist at Decision Economics
The number of Americans claiming for unemployment benefits declined slightly by 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 370,000 in the week ended May 19 from the week before, said the Department of Labor on Thursday.
GBP
" ...
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Germany May Have No Choice But To Play Ball
Investors in Asia were not as confident as those in the US and Europe, with most equity markets in Asia trading in negative territory or flat. A lot of investors are likely choosing to stay on the sidelines with so much of their focus on the uncertainty in Europe.
Overnight, Italy’s Monti attempted to reassure the market by stating Eurobonds gained a lot of support at Wednesday’s EU summit, with the obvious exception of Germany.
Monti appears to be suggesting Germany will give in to other EU leaders. Looking at Germany’s alternatives we are inclined to agree with this assumption. The balance of power may be shifting, and Germany may have no other option than to bow to pressure from its fellow EU nations, especially when faced with the prospect of Greece leaving the Eurozone which puts ...
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EUR/USD Falls to 21-Month Low
The EUR/USD fell as low as 1.2614 yesterday, a 21-month low, after investors grew increasingly concerned regarding Greece's fate in the euro-zone and shifted their funds to safe-haven assets. The currency pair staged a mild upward correction later in the day, eventually stabilizing around the 1.2655 level. Turning to today, euro traders will want to pay attention to several potentially significant news events. Specifically, the German Manufacturing PMI and Ifo Business Climate may help the euro recoup some of yesterday's losses if they come in above expectations.
Economic News
USD - Dollar Sees Significant Gains amid Risk Aversion
The US dollar moved up against several of its main currency rivals yesterday, as ongoing fears regarding Greece's future in the euro-zone have led to risk ...
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Risky trade getting hammered
Higher yielders remained under pressure as uncertainty continues to surround markets. The lack of assurance of an Imperative action on Greece from the euro leaders in their informal summit today makes things further vague for the destiny of the risky trade. While markets lack a conclusive expectation for the outcome of the summit majors look skeptical around key support levels.
During a teleconference earlier today, the Eurogroup Working Group (EWG); which consists of the officials preparing the meetings of finance minister, and form the board of the ESF as well, agreed that euro zone countries must consider and prepare for the consequences of a Greece exit. The move could have further negative impact on the common currency.
While Later today, the finance ministers are expected to unveil ...
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Waiting for the EU Summit
Trading in the London Session was choppy with the market unwilling to take any clear direction as we lead up to tomorrow's informal EU summit. The market toyed with the idea of Eurobonds (they like that idea and risk assets may rally tomorrow on any signs they are on the horizon.) Then they focused on the prospect of a showdown between Germany and France, Europe's de facto leaders, which caused a mild sell off. Right now the chances of the latter happening are more likely especially since Merkel is unlikely to be re-elected next year if she agrees to Eurobonds (read Germany guaranteeing the bulk of Europe's debt), which would never fly with German voters.
Although the EU President said that everything is on the table for discussion tomorrow, he also said that no concrete measures will be ...
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Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 22/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
Gold extended previous gains in Asian session on Tuesday as concerns over Greek exit from the single currency union eased. At G8 summit leaders of eighth largest economies stated that they would do everything possible to retain Greece in the Euro Zone. COMEX gold June contract traded at 1,592.35 US Dollars per troy ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, advancing by 0.23%.
USD
The US Senate has passed a bill aimed at tightening sanctions imposed on Iran to force the country to cease its nuclear program. The new sanctions imply investigation of role of Iran's Revolutionary Guard in oil exports as well as obliging the US companies to disclose any business activities with Iranian partners. The move came ahead of negotiations between Iran and six major ...
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Investors await EU summit
MORNING BRIEFING: Investors await EU summit
What’s new:
Asia: US equities swing into positive Asia in green territory as well
United States: CFNAI swings back into positive territory
Forex: GBP/USD trending higher ahead of CPI data
Rates in Asia and Indices:
EUR/USD 1.2783 1.282 -0.18 %
USD/CHF 0.9371 0.9397 -0.18 %
GBP/USD 1.5811 1.5837 -0.00 %
USD/JPY 79.27 79.5 -0.18 %
EUR/CHF 1.2009 1.20136 0.00 %
EUR/JPY 101.44 101.77 0 %
Dow Jones 12367.72 12508.11 1.09 %
Nasdaq 2478.36 2547.69 2.69 %
S&P 500 1295.73 1316.39 1.60 %
Nikkei 225 8690.47 8740.48 1.10 %
Shanghai 2354.867 2373.823 1.05 %
Gold spot 1586.21 1594.65 -0.33 %
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