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Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 04/10/2012
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
Greece’s next government may hold a trump card worth more than $510 billion if it heeds voters’ demands to renegotiate its bailout with the European Union.
USD
Treasury prices declined on Thursday, pushing yields up from their lowest levels since February, as news out of Europe eased some near-term uncertainty and reduced demand for the relative safe-haven status of U.S. debt.
GBP
Bank of England officials halted stimulus expansion after seven months of bond purchases as the threat of inflation trumped concerns about an economy that’s succumbed to a double-dip recession. The nine-member Monetary Policy Committee led by Governor Mervyn King today held its quantitative-easing target at 325 billion pounds ($525 billion), ending a second round of stimulus. ...
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Fragile euro hovers near multi-month lows
(Reuters) - The euro stayed close to a 3 1/2-month low against the dollar on Thursday and was expected to suffer further losses as political deadlock in Greece increased the risk of insolvency and a possible euro exit.
The common currency gained a short-term reprive as stress in Spanish debt markets abated slightly and after Greece secured funds needed for bond repayments.
However, it was expected to continue the firm downward path established since Greece's inconclusive elections at the weekend. With another set of elections likely, doubts are growing that Greece will adhere to austerity measures needed to secure further emergency funding.
The euro was up 0.2 percent at $1.2956, but it stayed not far from $1.29115 hit on Wednesday, its lowest since late January. Analysts were skeptical ...
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Fragile euro teeters near multi-month lows
(Reuters) - The euro steadied near a 3 1/2-month low against the dollar on Thursday as stress in Spanish debt markets abated slightly and after Greece secured funds needed for bond repayments, tempering the threat of a Greek insolvency and possible euro exit.
However Greece's future in the euro zone remains in question, with another round of elections foreseen and doubts about whether the country will adhere to austerity measures needed to secure further emergency funding.
Greece averted an imminent funding crisis after the board of the European Financial Stability Facility agreed to release 4.2 billion euros of a scheduled payment. However, impatient governments withheld part of the latest tranche of rescue funds to be paid on Thursday.
Ten-year Spanish government bond yields fell ...
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Euro on the edge as political risk mounts
(Reuters) - The euro fell close to a recent three-month low on Wednesday and was set for further falls on worries that Greek political uncertainty and a French leadership change may undermine the euro zone's austerity measures.
The euro remained under pressure after the leader of Greece's Left Coalition party said on Tuesday that the country's commitment to a European Union/International Monetary Fund rescue deal had become null and void.
Greece's two main pro-bailout parties failed to win a majority in weekend elections, leaving questions over the country's ability to avert bankruptcy and stay in the euro.
Added to instability in Greece, French President-elect Francois Hollande has advocated an approach to tackling the debt crisis centered more on growth, which may create tensions with ...
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Gold perched at $1,641 on equities, all eyes on Fed
(Reuters) - Gold held around $1,641 per ounce on Wednesday, underpinned by stronger equities, but investors were also looking for hints of another round of quantitative easing when the U.S. Federal Reserve ends its two-day meeting.
Previous rounds of asset purchases by the Fed weakened the dollar and boosted U.S. and global stocks. The central bank is expected to reiterate its intent to keep benchmark U.S. interest rates near zero over the next two years, which could burnish gold's safe-haven appeal.
Bullion struck a 2012 high around $1,790 in late February after the Fed at the time said it would keep interest rates near zero until at least by the end of 2014.
Gold hardly moved at $1,641.31 per ounce by 0632 GMT, having risen as high as $1,648.91 on Tuesday as the Dow .DJI and the S&P ...
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Euro vulnerable ahead of Spanish bill auction
(Reuters) - The euro was steady on Tuesday, staying vulnerable ahead of a Spanish bill sale that could intensify concerns over the country's precarious fiscal position as euro zone debt jitters showed no signs of abating.
Spain is expected to see borrowing costs leap when it sells 12- and 18-month Treasury bills after concerns over its deficit and banking sector pushed 10-year yields above 6 percent on Monday and the cost of insuring its debt to a record high.
The developments fuelled concerns Madrid might fail to meet deficit targets as the country acknowledged it has probably tipped into its second recession since 2009, raising the risk it may have to seek an international bailout.
The euro was steady at $1.3136, just above its 100-day moving average at $1.3129 but stuck below ...
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Pound Advances with Retail Sales
The Great Britain pound climbed today after a report showed that UK retail sales grew last month, following a decline in the previous month. The report made Britain’s assets more attractive to investors, who were worried about the economic slowdown in the United Kingdom.
British Retail Consortium reported that retail sales were up 1.3 percent on a like-for-like basis in March from a year ago. The increase followed the drop by 0.3 percent in the previous month. Stephen Robertson, the Director General at BRC, warned against being too exited by the positive data:
It’s worth remembering the sales comparison is against the weakest month of last year, largely caused by the movement of Easter in the calendar, and we’ll have to see whether this is additional spending or just shopping which ...
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Euro drops, yen rises as Spain's budget eyed
The euro slid against the dollar and the yen on Thursday as investors, nervous about Spain's budget presentation on Friday, dumped riskier assets before the end of the first quarter.
The single currency has declined steadily in recent sessions after touching a nearly four-week high earlier this week on comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, who indicated supportive monetary policy will remain in place.
But with several key risk events for the euro zone's sovereign debt crisis slated for the next few days, investors are squaring positions, said Nick Bennenbroek, head of currency strategy at Wells Fargo Bank in New York.
"We've had a few good days for the euro," he said.
With a broader bias to sell euros still pervading the market, investors are now booking profits on some ...
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Euro slides as Spain budget eyed
The euro slid against the dollar and the yen on Thursday as investors fretted that a Spanish budget due on Friday could show the euro zone nation with little recourse to dig its way out its debt dilemma.
The yen also benefited from flows ahead of the close of Japan's fiscal year on March 31, with data showing weaker-than-expected U.S. initial jobless claims also adding to the market's nervousness.
In Spain, workers slowed public transport to a crawl and disrupted factories to protest Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's sweeping reforms a day before a new round of budget cuts.
That budget "is a very dicey game," said Karl Schamotta, senior markets strategist with Western Union Business Solutions.
An austere document could spur relief in bond markets, "however, the reality is that that will ...
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