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Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 25/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
Trading in the shares of Bankia has been suspended in Madrid. Market regulator announced that this was done due to circumstances which might influence normal trading. Bankia is said to be forced to ask EUR 15b government bailout. Fourth largest Spanish bank was formed in 2010 after uniting seven troubled regional banks and currently holds EUR 32b worth of troubled assets.
USD
Natural gas futures declined during late US trade on Thursday after IEA reported that US inventories increased by 101 billion cubic feet on an annual basis last week, being higher than five-year average change of 97 billion cubic feet. Natural gas futures for June delivery traded at 2.707 US Dollars per million Btu on the New York Mercantile Exchange, tumbling by 3.20%.
GBP
David Cameron ...
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Euro off near two-year lows, outlook still bleak
(Reuters) - The euro inched up from two-year lows against the dollar on Friday as bearish investors took a breather from a sharp sell-off this week, but worries about a possible Greek exit from the euro zone and the risk of contagion could make gains fleeting.
The euro traded 0.4 percent higher on the day at $1.2581, pulling away from $1.25155, the lowest level since July 2010 that was hit the day before. Traders cited a reported option barrier at $1.2500 that could check losses with offers around $1.2600 and stop-loss orders above $1.2620.
Despite the bounce, the common currency has lost more than 5 percent against the dollar so far this month and is on track for its fourth straight week of losses, raising the possibility of a test of the 2010 low of $1.1875.
Macro funds and ...
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EURCHF Move Provides Temporary Excitement
Forex News and Events:
Risk appetite has recovery marginally in the Asian session as the lack of Europe-negative headlines allowed risk seekers to pick up bargains. EURUSD was able to rally off the 1.2519 lows trading up to 1.2579. One of the more tangible drivers of today’s renewed positive sentiment has been the optimistic tone out of the Iran nuclear talks. A spokesman for EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, stated "there is a positive atmosphere.” Oil went bid in the European session as WTI traded swiftly to $91.31. Yesterday’s move of the day was in the EURCHF where speculation on exactly what happened is still dominating conversation. After a month of inactivity around the 1.2010 level (vols compressed to nothing), EURCHF jumped suddenly over 60 pips during the European ...
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European Market Update : 25/05/2012
Germany said to be working on growth plan for euro zone
Economic Data
(EU) ECB: €3.8B borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. €3.8B prior; €760.9B parked in deposit facility v €765.9B prior
(RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e May 21st (RUB): 7.00T v 6.93T prior
(SG) Singapore Apr Industrial Production M/M: -3.5% v +06%e; Y/Y: -0.3% v +4.1% prior
(DE) Germany Jun GfK Consumer Confidence: 5.7 v 5.6e
(FR) France May Consumer Confidence: 90 v 88e
(ES) Spain Apr Producer Prices M/M: -0.8% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 3.1% v 2.7%e
(AT) Austria Mar Industrial Production M/M: +1.6% v -1.4% prior; Y/Y: +0.8% v -0.9% prior
(CH) Swiss Q1 Non-Farm payrolls: 4.049M v 4.044M prior
(DE) Germany May CPI Saxony M/M: -0.2%% v +0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.9% v 2.0% prior
(IT) Italy Mar Retail Sales M/M: -0.2% V -0.2%e; Y/ ...
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Market Drivers - Currencies : 25/05/2012
Market Drivers - Currencies
Today's Comment
As there are no major items on today's agenda, the markedly weaker-than-expected PMI data from Europe and China (as well as lower-than-expected IFO figures from Germany) published yesterday will undoubtedly show repercussions in Friday's market. Ironically, the equity market and commodity market did not show any considerable negative reactions to the news yesterday. The reason for this is most likely a fairly simple one – the weak economic indicators will increase the likelihood of a central bank intervention – lower interest rates – more QE, fiscal stimuli from China, etc. – and that will be to the liking of risky assets as they have become almost dependent on such measures to maintain the current levels. The poor PMI data signal that the ...
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Negative outlook in EU sends EUR/USD to new 2012 lows
MORNING BRIEFING: Negative outlook in EU sends EUR/USD to new 2012 lows
What’s new:
Asia: Japanese CPI in line with expectations. Risk mixed overnight. EUR/JPY consolidates below 100.
United States: Soft core durables send GDP forecasts down. USD gaining against most peers
Europe: Decent indices, but Euro selling off. Still focus on Greece and the lack of progress.
Rates in Asia and Indices:
EUR/USD 1.2519 1.2561 0.21 %
USD/CHF 0.9567 0.9606 0.16 %
GBP/USD 1.5648 1.5676 -0.00 %
USD/JPY 79.54 79.82 -0.06 %
EUR/CHF 1.2012 1.20375 -0.03 %
EUR/JPY 99.73 100.06 -0.25 %
Dow Jones 12419.63 12539.59 0.26 %
Nasdaq 2512.35 2554.2 ...
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Gold inches up, yet heading for a weekly decline
Gold inched up on Friday’s early trading yet remains under pressure amid worries from the euro area on speculations the European debt crisis is materializing on possible Greek exit from the euro area and macroeconomic degradation.
On Wednesday, the informal EU summit showed disagreement over introducing Eurobonds as German Chancellor Angela Merkel said after the EU summit that her country support her opposition to jointly issued common European bonds.
However, after the end of the EU-27 summit yesterday Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti said he persuade Germany to accept launching common bonds, stating that “Europe can have euro bonds soon.”
He also announced that Greece will probably remain in the euro bloc even as “anything can happen.”
On the other hand, reports released ...
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Japanese yen declines against majors at the end of the week
The Japanese yen fell against the dollar and major currencies today at the end of the week’s session after the CPI missed expectations and remained below the BOJ’s inflation target which raised worries especially from deflation bubble.
USD/JPY pair inclined to record a high of 79.82 after a low of 79.52, where the pair is currently trading at 79.70 after opening at 79.58.
The Euro is hovering around its lowest this week which amid continued concerns about sovereign debt crisis in Europe, especially after the failure of European leaders in talks to set out the decision.
EUR/USD pair recorded low of 1.2515 after reaching a high of 1.2552 after opening at 1.2532.
AUD/USD pair fell today to record a low of 0.9724 after a high of 0.7983 and started the session at 0.9761. The NZD/USD pair ...
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Spike of EUR/USD Leads to Speculation About SNB Intervention
The Swiss franc fell after a spike of the EUR/USD currency pair lead to speculations that the Swiss National Bank may take additional measures to erode the role of the franc as a safe haven.
Yesterday, for a short time, EUR/USD climbed to the highest level since March. The currency pair quickly pulled back, but that was enough to spur talks about another intervention by the SNB. There were rumors that the central bank plans to introduce a tax on deposit. Government and the bank’s officials refused to comment the speculations. Some economists say that the spike was likely caused just by some bank selling euros.
The SNB introduced the 1.20 cap on the franc against the euro in September last year. Since then, the Swiss currency was steadily appreciating, but stopped near the ceiling, ...
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