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Analysis: Deeper metals price falls needed to spark closures
(Reuters) - A rout in commodity markets has pushed prices of aluminum, zinc and nickel down to levels where many high-cost producers are starting to suffer, although the pain threshold may have to increase before widespread closures help balance markets.
High cash premiums in aluminum and zinc along with recent weakening in commodity currencies are providing a cushion to some producers, who otherwise might be forced to halt loss-making output in markets burdened with surpluses.
"It becomes a question of how long you can hold your breath under water, if you can hold breath just a moment longer, then it may be your rival who makes the cuts," said Nick Moore, head of commodity research at RBS in London.
"If they don't cut, then prices will be the grim reaper. They will go down to a level ...
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Gold slips in line with euro ahead of EU meeting
(Reuters) - Gold fell towards $1,550 an ounce in Europe, pressured by concerns that a European Union meeting later on Wednesday would fail to significantly ease worries over the euro zone debt crisis which lifted the dollar to a 21-month high against the euro.
The dollar, along with German bond futures, benefited from a flight from riskier assets, including stocks and commodities such as copper and oil.
Spot gold was down 0.1 percent at $1,555.50 an ounce at 0930 GMT while U.S. gold futures for June delivery were down $20.60 an ounce at $1,556.00.
"Gold is acting more as a risky asset, and everything is tumbling this morning ahead of this informal finance ministers meeting, where nothing good is really expected," Societe Generale analyst Robin Bhar said.
"It is not inconceivable that ...
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Guessing game begins over next Treasury chief
(Reuters) - Wanted for the Treasury Department: a new boss who can fix trillion-dollar-plus budget deficits, overhaul the tax system and spur a reluctant Europe into fixing its debt crisis.
It's a tall order, especially when the new Treasury chief also must deal with a fractious Congress - and all for a salary lower than that paid to many junior Wall Street bankers.
Economists, investors and veterans of past administrations are appraising potential successors to Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, either in a new Obama administration, if President Barack Obama is re-elected, or under Mitt Romney.
Geithner has made it clear that he is leaving the post he has held since January 2009 even if Obama, a Democrat, beats Romney, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, in the November ...
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Global shares gain on Europe optimism; euro dips
(Reuters) - World equity markets rose for a second consecutive day on Tuesday on hopes European leaders will tackle the region's debt crisis, but the euro fell on doubts that much would come of a meeting just a day away.
European shares gained almost 2 percent on optimism European leaders may devise new measures to foster growth in the euro zone and restore a doubtful market's confidence.
An informal summit of European Union leaders late on Wednesday is expected to discuss the idea of regional bonds jointly underwritten by all euro zone member states.
However, Germany's long-standing opposition is unlikely to change; the country has dismissed the French-led call for the euro zone to issue common bonds.
"The string of summit meetings that have been called to address the euro crisis thus ...
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Waiting for the EU Summit
Trading in the London Session was choppy with the market unwilling to take any clear direction as we lead up to tomorrow's informal EU summit. The market toyed with the idea of Eurobonds (they like that idea and risk assets may rally tomorrow on any signs they are on the horizon.) Then they focused on the prospect of a showdown between Germany and France, Europe's de facto leaders, which caused a mild sell off. Right now the chances of the latter happening are more likely especially since Merkel is unlikely to be re-elected next year if she agrees to Eurobonds (read Germany guaranteeing the bulk of Europe's debt), which would never fly with German voters.
Although the EU President said that everything is on the table for discussion tomorrow, he also said that no concrete measures will be ...
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Copper falls as dollar firms, debt crisis weighs
(Reuters) - Copper fell on Tuesday as the dollar firmed and uncertainty about Europe's ability to resolve its debt crisis outweighed reports that top metals consumer China will fast-track infrastructure investment.
Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange touched a week-high of $7,816 a metric ton (1.1 ton) in the session, before erasing gains to $7,712 at 5:37 a.m. EDT (0937 GMT), down 0.2 percent from Monday's $7,731 close.
One of the price supports for copper on Tuesday was a report in the state-backed China Securities Journal that Beijing will fast track its approval of infrastructure investments to combat slowing growth and a sluggish property sector. Copper is used extensively in construction.
Premier Wen Jiabao has also called for additional efforts to support growth, ...
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Asian Market Update : 22/05/2012
Short-covering momentum builds on China infrastructure spending hopes
Economic Data
(NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q2 RBNZ 2-YR INFLATION EXPECTATIONS: 2.4% V 2.5% PRIOR (11-quarter low and 4th consecutive quarter of decline)
(CN) CHINA APR CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX M/M: 0.8% V 0.8% PRIOR
(TW) TAIWAN APR UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 4.2% V 4.1%E
(KR) SOUTH KOREA Q1 EXTERNAL SHORT TERM DEBT: $136.3B V $136.1B PRIOR
Markets Snapshot (as of 04:15GMT)
Nikkei225 +1.0%
S&P/ASX +0.8%
Kospi +1.2%
Shanghai Composite +0.5%
Hang Seng +0.8%
June S&P Futures flat at 1,315
June gold flat at $1,589/oz
July Crude +0.1% at $92.96
Overview/Top Headlines
Asian equity markets have extended the overnight rally with another session of moderate gains, as hopes for progress in European talks took a back- ...
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Greek Chaos Continues But Solution Ultimately Found
- While waiting for the Greek election on 17 June we are likely to see continued high uncertainty and continued high stress in the markets. Things are likely to get worse before they get better.
- Amid this uncertainty, Greek citizens are likely to withdraw more money from their banks and this could escalate into a real bank run.
- A major game of chicken has started between the EU on the one hand and Greek politicians on the other.
- The EU is likely to stand firm on its demands for Greece to deliver austerity and give only a few concessions. The rethoric from the left coalition party Syriza is likely to continue to be fiercely against the EU as it is aiming to become the biggest party and get 50 bonus mandates for this.
- We look at three different post-election scenarios. ...
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Asian Market Update : 21/05/2012
Equities and risky FX bounce after G8 commitment to Greece and China hints of easing
Economic Data
(JP) JAPAN MAR ALL INDUSTRY ACTIVITY INDEX M/M: -0.3% V -0.1%E (3rd consecutive decline)
(NZ) NEW ZEALAND APR NET MIGRATION: -850 V 230 PRIOR
(NZ) NEW ZEALAND APR CREDIT CARD SPENDING M/M: 0.2% V 0.4% PRIOR; Y/Y: 3.7% V 5.3% PRIOR
(TH) THAILAND Q1 GDP Q/Q: 11.0% V 10.0%E; Y/Y: +0.3% V -0.5%E
(UK) UK MAY RIGHTMOVE HOUSE PRICE M/M: 0.0% V 2.9% PRIOR (4-month low); Y/Y: 2.0% V 3.4% PRIOR
Markets Snapshot (as of 04:30GMT)
Nikkei225 +0.7%
S&P/ASX +0.3%
Kospi +0.9%
Shanghai Composite +0.2%
Hang Seng -0.1%
Jun S&P Futures +0.5% at 1,297
June gold +0.4% at $1,599/oz
June Crude +0.5% at $91.90
Overview/Top Headlines
Asian equity markets, commodities, and risk-on FX opened the new week ...
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