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Technical analysis of the USD/CHF pair on May 11th, 2012
Commentary of the USD/CHF pair :
The pair USD/CHF made yesterday a pullback on the support at 0.9258 and is currently testing again the resistance at 0.93.
The opening gap is still not filled in.
All indicators are bullish.
We continue to advise long positons as far as 0.92 is support.
The breakout of 0.93 will give a new buy signal and open the way towards 0.9350.
In case of return below 0.92, we will be neutral between this level and 0.9150.
See the previous analysis of the USD/CHF pair of May 10th, 2012
USD/CHF Analysis
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USD Softer as Sentiment Stabilizes
USD Softer as Sentiment Stabilizes
USD is mostly softer as sentiment stabilizes and amid slightly weaker US economic data. Weekly initial jobless claims dropped by 1k to 367k (cons. 368k) from an upwardly revised 368k (prior 365k). The 4-week moving average in initial claims fell for the first time in 5 weeks with a drop of -5.3k indicating marginal improvement in labor. The March trade balance showed a wider than expected deficit of -$51.8B (cons. -50.0B, prior -45.4B) as imports jumped 5.2% – the largest increase in over a year. European bourses are currently trading in positive territory, US stock futures are suggesting upside at the open, and UST yields are higher across the curve indicating a better risk environment today. The dollar index is lower and testing the 80.00 figure as ...
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Risk Recovery Looks Fragile
It's one step forward and two steps back for risk at the moment. On the one hand we heard yesterday that Greece was 'more than likely' to receive its next aid tranche in order to cover a bond redemption due later this month, yet the political deadlock from Sunday's election is now entering its fourth day. The chances are that Greece will have to go back to the polls next month (at the cost of about EU 18mn) and the financial markets are concerned that the electorate will choose an anti-austerity party as its first choice.
The choice is up to the Greeks
However, Greece may not like austerity, but it also wants to remain in the Eurozone. EU officials, particularly in Germany, have broken the taboo that no one can leave the Eurozone and started to publically announce that Greece has to ...
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Technical analysis of the EUR/USD pair on May 10th, 2012
Commentary of the EUR/USD pair :
The pair EUR/USD is currently testing the support at 1.2950.
The pair is moving below the lower band of its bearish channel (purple lines).
All indicators are bearish.
We continue to advise short positons as far as 1.3070 is resistance.
The breakout of 1.2950 and 1.29 will both give a new sell signal.
In case of return above 1.3070, we will wait the breakout of 1.31 to advise long positions.
See the previous analysis of the EUR/USD pair of May 9th, 2012
EUR/USD Analysis
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Risk Aversion Boosts the USD, JPY
USD trading broadly higher (except against the JPY) as the Greek political impasse is raises concerns and increases risk aversion. The IMF remained firm saying that Greece must deliver necessary economic reforms and that it is not acceptable for the country to seek laxer loan terms. German officials are speaking out as well calling the latest developments ‘very worrying' and saying that Greeks must decide whether or not they want to stay in the euro. It is another light day for economic data in the US with weekly mortgage applications rising by +1.7% and March wholesale inventories due out at 1000ET. UST yields continues their descent across the curve with the 10-year yield falling below the 1.80% level as a result of both increased risk aversion and increased speculation of QE3. The ...
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Technical look at the majors
Currencies on the brick of breaking key multi-week technical levels, while the greenback continues to command. The USDIX has broken a key descending trend line today, after forming a bottom at the main ascending support of the ascending channel. This breach could be the start of something bigger, as the longer term outlook shall point towards an initial rally towards 2012 high at 81.69.
The EUR/USD has penetrated the key support and psychological level at 1.3000-1.2972, currently trading below 1.2935. If the pair manages to hold below this key level for today, a downside move towards 1.2625 lows may be inevitable, while the bearish bias shall remain intact so long as 1.3100 is holding.
The GBP/USD fell sharply today, currently testing the key support and previous high around 1.6060. A ...
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Political Situation in Greece Drives Risky Assets lower
Forex News and Events:
Considering the risk building in Europe, the EUR has held up surprisingly well. However, given the following headlines from Greece, we doubt how much longer the single currency can remain resilient. Conservative leader Samaras stated “I tried to form a coalition government with two goals: that the country remain in the euro and bailout policies change to include growth measures,” the lack of success after 6 hrs of talks in Athens means he will hand over the mandate back to the president. This also means that the attempt to form a government will now be passed to Alexis Tsipras, the head of Syriza, who has vowed to derail the current bailout path. Comments from Tsipras overnight has rattled the markets nerves as the Syriza leader Alex stated that he will annul the ...
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EUR/USD Testing Key Support
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Fixed Income: new contract highs
- London-traders returned and the market seemed to react with a lag to this weekend's election results. In a risk off session, both the German Bund Future and the US Note Future set new contract highs, respectively at 142.62 and 133-04.
- Currencies EUR/USD testing key support
- On Tuesday, sentiment on the euro remained fragile even as there was little news from the political scene in France or Greece. EUR/USD is again testing the key 1.2974/55 support area. A break below this level would be highly significant from a technical point of view.
The Sunrise Headlines
- US Equities dropped sharply lower yesterday, but reversed most of their losses in the final hours of trading. The S&P ended the session 0.43% lower. ...
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Technical analysis of the XAU/USD (Gold) pair on May 9th, 2012
Commentary of the XAU/USD (Gold) pair:
The pair XAU/USD has suddenly validated the breakout of 1630 and 1620 points, offering new sell signals.
The pair is currently testing the support at 1600 points and also the lower band of its medium term bearish channel (purple lines).
All indicators are bearish.
We maintain to trade only short positions as far as 1630 points is resistance.
The breakout of 1600 and 1580 will both give a new sell signal and open the way towards 1550 points.
In case of return above 1630 points, we will wait the breakout of 1650 to advise long positions.
See the previous analysis of the XAU/USD pair of May 8th, 2012
XAU/USD Analysis
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