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Terms Of Confidence And SoTitle:
EURCHF Move Provides Temporary Excitement
Forex News and Events:
Risk appetite has recovery marginally in the Asian session as the lack of Europe-negative headlines allowed risk seekers to pick up bargains. EURUSD was able to rally off the 1.2519 lows trading up to 1.2579. One of the more tangible drivers of today’s renewed positive sentiment has been the optimistic tone out of the Iran nuclear talks. A spokesman for EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, stated "there is a positive atmosphere.” Oil went bid in the European session as WTI traded swiftly to $91.31. Yesterday’s move of the day was in the EURCHF where speculation on exactly what happened is still dominating conversation. After a month of inactivity around the 1.2010 level (vols compressed to nothing), EURCHF jumped suddenly over 60 pips during the European ...
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What would Greek exit mean for the U.S. economy?
(Reuters) - Uncertainty over the fate of the euro currency is already dampening U.S. economic growth and any significant worsening of the crisis would deal a blow to a recovery that is gradually gathering steam.
Economists estimate that volatile markets and business uncertainty over the fate of Greece and the policy course in Europe is already shaving anywhere from one tenth to one half a percentage point from U.S. 2012 gross domestic product growth.
In a Reuters poll last week, U.S. GDP was forecast on average at 2.3 percent for 2012 and 2.4 percent for 2013.
The direct hit to growth comes through trade. U.S. exports to the European Union account for 19 percent of total exports, and those to the euro zone represent 13 percent of the total. But when calculated in terms of GDP, the share ...
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European Market Update : 24/05/2012
Major European PMI Manufacturing data misses expectations; German IFO Business Confidence falls for the first time in 7 months
Economic Data
(RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e May 18th: $514.3B v $518.8B prior
(DE) Germany Q1 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.5% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.7%e; GDP WDA Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.2%e
(DE) Germany Q1 Private Consumption: 0.4% v 0.2%e; Government Spending: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Domestic Demand: -0.3% v 0.0%e; Capital Investment: -1.1% v -0.3%e; Construction Investment: -1.3% v -0.4%e; Exports: 1.7% v 0.9%e; Imports: 0.0% v 0.3%e
(CH) Swiss Apr Trade Balance (CHG): 1.3B v 1.9Be; Real Exports M/M: -0.9% v +0.2%e; Real Imports M/M: 2.6% v 5.9% prior
(FI) Finland Apr PPI M/M: -0.1% v +0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.4% prior
(FI) Finland Apr Preliminary Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -2.0% v ...
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Exclusive: U.S. lets China bypass Wall Street for Treasury orders
(Reuters) - China can now bypass Wall Street when buying U.S. government debt and go straight to the U.S. Treasury, in what is the Treasury's first-ever direct relationship with a foreign government, according to documents viewed by Reuters.
The relationship means the People's Bank of China buys U.S. debt using a different method than any other central bank in the world.
The other central banks, including the Bank of Japan, which has a large appetite for Treasuries, place orders for U.S. debt with major Wall Street banks designated by the government as primary dealers. Those dealers then bid on their behalf at Treasury auctions.
China, which holds $1.17 trillion in U.S. Treasuries, still buys some Treasuries through primary dealers, but since June 2011, that route hasn't been necessary.
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Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 19/05/2012
U.S. Review
To QE3 or Not To QE3: That is the Question
- Some market participants are beginning to speculate about another round of quantitative easing. Although recent growth indicators have not been particularly stellar, the economy is still growing. Moreover, core CPI inflation in the neighborhood of 2 percent means that the threshold for more QE is relatively high.
- Overall, indicators were positive during the week. Housing starts increased by 2.6 percent in April, the Empire Manufacturing index improved to 17.09 in May from a 6.56 print in April and retail sales printed a 0.1 percent increase in April, in line with expectations.
To QE3 or Not To QE3: That is the Question
QE3 seems to have more lives that a cat; it comes back into the forefront of the U.S. economy discussion ...
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European stocks fluctuate in closing
European stocks finished in green territory in today’s trading session, amid the political deadlock in Greece, which affected global confidence levels amid fears of a renewed chapter in the debt crisis.
STOXX 600 ended higher today by 0.35% at 251.97; STOXX 50 ended also in green, higher by 0.40% at 2361.85.
CAC 40 Index
The French benchmark index was covered in red by closing, down by 0.40 points or 0.01% to close at 3129.77. The index opened at 3107.60 recording a high of 3134.62 and a low of 3077.41.
The worst performing shares in terms of subtracted value for the index were led by Vallourec SA as it plummeted 19.99% to end at €34.29; following was Schneider Electric SA as it shed 2.69% to settle at €43.99, while coming in third was Liquide SA which slumped 1.82% to close at €95.05.
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Pressures intensify on European leaders
Confidence is already in short supply in financial markets and could evaporate further in the coming week if investors judge that Europe's often fractious political leaders aren't mapping out a sustainable path through the current crisis.
Over the past week investors have been rocked by the increased likelihood of Greece leaving the euro, and an admission by one of the world's more highly regarded banks, JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N), of an embarrassing failure in risk management.
Many in the markets are now looking to Europe's political leaders to signal a shift in the German-led austerity drive across Europe which they now see as threatening the fragile recovery underway in the world economy if cuts are not tempered with some efforts to encourage growth.
Credit rating agency Fitch put the ...
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EUR/GBP Testing 80.00 Barrier, As BoE Stops Printing Press
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Fixed Income: Largely uneventful session for core bonds
- Core bonds had an insignificant, technical and sentiment-driven session that left bond yields slightly higher in the close. Overnight, negative headline news on JP Morgan and Greece triggered a moderately strong opening of the Bund. Europe will be in the focus today with the publication of the Spanish banking plan and the EU spring forecasts.
- Currencies: EUR/GBP testing 80.00 barrier, as BoE stops printing press
- On Thursday, sentiment on risk turned slightly less negative, even without progress in the Greek debt/election crisis. Nevertheless, the decline in EUR/USD slowed. EUR/GBP reached a minor low just below 0.8000 as the BoE halted its program of asset purchases. For now, we see no ...
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Fragile euro teeters near multi-month lows
(Reuters) - The euro steadied near a 3 1/2-month low against the dollar on Thursday as stress in Spanish debt markets abated slightly and after Greece secured funds needed for bond repayments, tempering the threat of a Greek insolvency and possible euro exit.
However Greece's future in the euro zone remains in question, with another round of elections foreseen and doubts about whether the country will adhere to austerity measures needed to secure further emergency funding.
Greece averted an imminent funding crisis after the board of the European Financial Stability Facility agreed to release 4.2 billion euros of a scheduled payment. However, impatient governments withheld part of the latest tranche of rescue funds to be paid on Thursday.
Ten-year Spanish government bond yields fell ...
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