Technical Analysis Of The Eur/usd
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"Despite mostly positive economic data for the German economy, the ZEW Indicator remains at the level of the previous month."
- ZEW President Prof. Dr. Clemens Fuest
Investors’ mood in Europe’s largest economy rose significantly this month, as the economy is gathering pace.
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Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
"Markets will likely continue to view any move to withdraw policy as the first step of many and, as a result, volatility is likely to remain elevated as the market balances incoming data with Fed communications about its policy stance."
- Barclays (based on Reuters)
After being supported by the weekly PP for some time pair is currently hovering slightly below 1.34 and seems to be aiming at 1.345 area. Such scenario ...
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"You cannot say that exports are a real growth driver at the moment. To see a more sustainable recovery of the euro zone, we’ll have to wait for the second half of this year."
- Carsten Brzeski, Senior Economist at ING
The Euro bloc’s trade surplus unexpectedly narrowed in April amid decline in exports for the first time in four months, according to the latest data from the European statistics bureau Eurostat. The seasonally adjusted trade surplus reached 14.9 billion euros (19.9 billion U.S. dollars) compared to 22.9 billion euros in March, marking a 30% decline on a monthly basis.
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Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
"The euro is no longer under existential threat, financial stability has been restored, deficits have ...
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"If the growth data disappoints in the latter half of this year then that could be very important for determining market sentiment towards the Eurozone."
- Thanos Vamvikidis, head of European G10 forex strategy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Prices of electricity, fruit and vegetables helped to boost consumer prices in the Eurozone off its three-year low last month, suggesting some stabilization in the struggling to grow region.
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Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
"There’s a lot to be said about euro being a default asset at the moment if we’re worried about a slower Asia and if it’s not clear to us whether the Fed is going to be tapering sooner or later."
- Westpac Banking Corp. (based on Bloomberg)
Pair started the ...
Fundamental Analysis
USD
"The downside risk from sequestration is proving much smaller than some had feared"
- Mike Englund, chief economist at Action Economics LLC
The closely-watched labour market is showing signs of stabilization as the number of Americans who applied last week for the jobless benefits fell, suggesting companies are refraining firing stuff even despite deceleration in the economy and recent budget cuts and tax hikes.
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Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
"The market got ahead of itself in early June, looking for ECB interest rate cuts and U.S. Fed tapering. This continues to be supportive for the euro-dollar..."
- Chapdelaine FX (based on Bloomberg)
EUR/USD carries on with its recovery from the April low at 1.2745. At the moment ...
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"While April industrial production data are relatively encouraging, the euro zone manufacturing sector is not yet out of the woods."
- Howard Archer, chief European economist at IHS Global Insight
Industrial output in the 17-nation economy increased more than expected in April, led by France, adding to signs the region’s economy is beginning to emerge from a record-long recession, the European Union’s statistics office said Wednesday.
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Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
"It lifts hopes that the sector will expand significantly in the second quarter and help the euro zone dodge a seventh successive quarter of GDP contraction."
- IHS Global Insight (based on Bloomberg)
Pair managed to breach key, Fibo 61,8% (February to ...
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"I can guarantee that we won't simply inflate our way out of debt."
- ECB President Mario Draghi
Mario Draghi’s pledge to do “whatever it takes” to save the single currency is being challenged by German constitutional court. German most powerful central bankers will scrutinize the legality of the ECB’s instrument to stabilize the battered shared currency.
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Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
"A gain in short-term rates is cause for euro buying. The rising rates show expectations of a future rate cut by the ECB have receded."
- Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp. (based on Bloomberg)
1.334/35 area is continuing to put significant pressure on the pair despite the fact that technical indicators, on aggregate, give a positive ...
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"I believe that the crisis, far from weakening the eurozone, will strengthen it."
- French President Francois Hollande
Despite record high unemployment, anaemic growth at best and struggling to grow manufacturing sector, French President Francois Hollande is sure that the sovereign debt crisis, which has gripped the region over the past four years, is over.
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Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
"When we presented the programme, the euro was on the brink of a disorderly break-up. The ECB ... had to make clear to all speculators: do not take on the ECB; the euro will be defended."
- ECB board member (based on The Irish Times)
At the moment pair is aiming at the major resistance at 1.33. If pair manages to advance above it, as ...
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The German economy is gradually exiting the weak phase that it had around the turn of the year."
- Mario Gruppe, an economist at NordLB
Industrial production of Europe’s largest economy expanded most in more than a year in April, boosted by an increase in construction activity after an unusually long winter that damped output.
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Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
"I believe that the crisis, far from weakening the eurozone, will strengthen it. Now, we have all the instruments of stability and solidarity."
- French President (based on BBC)
Pair started the week slightly below 1.32 and has been trying to advance above it since the beginning. However, for the time being monthly R1 at 1.322 is getting in the way. Although pair ...
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The governing council continues to see downside risks surrounding the economic outlook for the euro area."
- ECB President Mario Draghi
The European Central Bank has revised down its growth forecast on Thursday, and kept the main refinancing rate on hold, as the economy is still struggling to grow.
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Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
"Once again Draghi’s words are more powerful than the sword and he is charming the market up. Whenever he talks, the euro seems to listen, and oil is following the euro."
- Price Futures Group (based on Bloomberg)
Rather unexpectedly pair received strong bullish impetus from 200-day SMA which sent it more than 200 pips higher to 1.33. Despite this move, pair outlook remains rather grim.
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Sunrise Market Commentary
- Rates: Corrective action
- Global core bonds eked out modest gains yesterday without changing the technical picture. Further deteriorating sentiment on equity markets and a somewhat weaker US ADP report set the stage for core bond gains. Today, eyes are on the central bankers with ECB and BoE meetings. No policy changes are expected.
- Currencies: Sterling gains on strong UK services PMI
- EUR/USD held close to the recent top in the 1.31 area as US eco data were not strong enough to change fortunes in favour of the dollar. Sterling jumped higher on a strong UK services PMI. EUR/GBP is testing the 0.85 area. Today, the focus will be on the ECB press conference. Will soft speak of ECB's Draghi slow the recent rise of the euro?
The Sunrise ...