Technical
Highlights
FX return analysis
Gold hurtling towards 2013 lows
Fundamental focus: UK and Europe
BOJ to stand pat
Clarity needed from the Fed
FX return analysis
The USD was the star performer last week, gaining against all of its G10 counterparts. The dollar index broke above 84.10 - a key resistance level - to the highest level since mid-2010. Interestingly, the dollar pushed higher even though there were some soft economic data points from the US last week including weaker inflation and initial jobless claims. The key driver of the stronger buck appears to have been some hawkish comments from Fed speakers. San Francisco Fed speaker John Williams and Charles Plosser both said that QE could end by 2014. Although Williams and Plosser are not voting members of the Fed this year, their ...
Throughout the US session today we watch the major pairs narrow trade today as the market is close to close and the week is ending as a result of present technical movements and also the presence of mixed sentiments; fears and hopes, with most of the data this week coming out gloomy or below market forecasts while that today cheerful data was report.
In fact today we saw that the US leading indicators, which is an index designed to forecast economic changes in the upcoming period of time, rose cheerfully in April by 0.6 percent.
While that the University of Michigan Confidence preliminary reading rose cheerfully to 83.7 from 76.4; an indication that confidence regarding personal finances, business conditions and purchasing power gained some strength.
Accordingly the euro is presently ...
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"Deflation is perhaps becoming more of a risk than inflation for the eurozone, although it remains unlikely for now at least."
- HIS Global Insight analyst Howard Archer
Consumer prices hike in the 17-nation economy has slowed to the lowest level in more than three years, as fuel and telecommunications costs dropped substantially, the EU statistics office, Eurostat said Thursday.
Read more: FULL REPORT - Fundamental Analysis
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
"U.S. bond prices gained sharply yesterday despite William's comments. Each market has its own interpretation now and there's no broad consensus on the Fed's stance yet."
- Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ (based on CNBC)
It looks like 1.2874/46 will be unable to withstand bearish pressure and thus will give in, ...
Sunrise Market Commentary
Rates: Global bonds finally react on weaker US data
It took some time, but finally bonds reacted positively to another batch of weaker US data. That may have ended the downward correction that started after the US May payrolls release. However, there is as of yet no reason to become overly bullish for bonds.
Currencies: Dollar ignores poor US eco data
The recent slide of EUR/USD slowed, but the pair failed to profit from a series of poor US eco data. Fed speakers, including governor Williams, continue the debate on the tapering of asset purchases. These expectation are putting a strong floor under the dollar. The trade-weighted dollar is still near the key 84.10 level
The Sunrise Headlines
US equities suffered first losses this week with S&P 0.5% lower. Whereas ...
- Forex Technical Analysis : 05/17/2013 -
(Timeframes: 30 minutes)
USD/CAD Technical Analysis
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
NZD/USD Technical Analysis
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
GBP/JPY Technical Analysis
EUR/CHF Technical Analysis
EUR/JPY Technical Analysis
EUR/GBP Technical Analysis
USD/CHF Technical Analysis
USD/JPY Technical Analysis
XAU/USD (Gold) Technical Analysis
XAG/USD (Silver) Technical Analysis
Crude Oil Technical Analysis
Major pairs so far narrow traded within the US session as a result of technical movements after that the dollar plunged from an almost four-year high versus the yen after weaker-than-forecast reports on U.S. unemployment claims, housing and inflation damped bets the Federal Reserve will slow its bond purchases.
Accordingly the euro is presently narrow trading on the four and one-hour charts as a result of the current technical movements sending in fact the EUR/USD pair to trade up around $1.2903 while recording the highest level of $1.2928 and lowest level of $1.2845, knowing that the pair may incline but slightly as mixed signs are seen throughout the four-hour and one-hour momentum indicators. The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.2745 and key resistance at 1.2990.
...
It's another key day for US economic data. As debate heats up about the timing of a possible exit of QE3, economic data is becoming even more important. Today's highlights include inflation, initial jobless claims, housing starts and Philadelphia Fed survey. Inflation and labour market data are critical inputs for QE3, while the recovery in the housing market is necessary for economic momentum to continue and the Philly Fed is worth watching as it is one of the first May data releases.
Market expectations:
Inflation: headline prices expected to fall to 1.3% due to weak gasoline prices, and core prices to fall a notch to 1.8% - a 2 year low. This is below the Fed's target of 2%.
Initial jobless claims: expected to rise to 330k, up slightly from last week's 323k, but still close to a 5-year ...
Title:
Euro Drifting Further South
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Rates: Core EMU bonds stabilize as eco data disappoint
Following a losing streak, US Treasuries eked out only modest gains on eco weakness, as equities kept climbing higher. German bonds ended little changed. Is this the start of longer consolidation period? More eco releases and Fed speakers may lead to an interesting session today.
- Currencies: Euro drifting further south
Yesterday the news flow brought negative news both for the euro and the dollar. The euro was hit the hardest as EMU Q1 GDP growth was reported well below the market consensus. The trade-weighted dollar tested the July 2012 top but the test was rejected. Sterling rebounded as the BoE turned slightly more positive on the UK economy.
The Sunrise Headlines
US equities eked out nice gains on ...
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The first-quarter contraction reinforces pressure on the ECB to come up with further measures to try and support euro-zone growth."
- Howard Archer, an economist at IHS Global Insight
The 17-nation economy has slumped into its longest recession ever, as the economic activity in the region fell for a sixth quarter in a row. Gross domestic product in the Eurozone shrank 0.2% in the first three months of 2013 after a 0.6% decline in the previous quarter, and below analysts’ expectations of a 0.1% slump.
Read more: FULL REPORT - Fundamental Analysis
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
"The euro zone GDP data reinforced expectations of additional easing from the ECB."
- Commonwealth Foreign Exchange (based on CNBC)
Even though EUR/USD was facing a strong support zone at ...