Speculation Leads To Broad

Euro hits fresh 2012 lows ahead of informal summit; More reports of an ECB contingency plan in the works Economic Data (GR) Greece Mar Current Account: -€2.1B v €1.1B prior (NL) Netherlands Mar Consumer Spending Y/Y: % v -1.3% prior (SE) Sweden Apr Unemployment Rate: % v 7.8%e (EU) Euro Zone Apr Current Account: +€7.5B v -€5.6B prior; Current Account Seasonally Adj: +€7.5B v -€1.2B prior (IT) Italy May Consumer Confidence: 86.5 v 89.5e (lowest reading on record after series began in 1996)) (ZA) South Africa Apr CPI (all items) M/M: 0.4% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: % v 6.2%e (TW) Taiwan Apr Industrial Production Y/Y: -2.3% v -1.7%e; Commercial Sales Y/Y: -2.4% v -0.9% prior (UK) Apr Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel M/M: -1.0% v -0.7%e; Y/Y: -0.3% v +0.7%e (UK) Apr Retail Sales with Auto Fuel M/M: -0.8% ...

Forex News and Events: There is plenty of speculation about the EURCHF spike around 20.00est yesterday. The sudden move to 1.2035 from 1.2015 has fueled speculation that the SNB was active once again in the FX markets. At this point there is little supporting evidence that what we saw was an official intervention rather than panicky traders hearing footsteps. The SNB, so far, has been very transparent regarding their FX policy. Last Thursday’s trading action had the SNB wholly entering the market on EBS in their own name. In addition, SNBs Jordon quickly issued a discussion memo (see below) outlining in very lucid details the events of the day. The SNB saw no advantage of hiding being classics convoluted Central bank language. There are some significant credibility issues and policy ...

Fundamental Analysis EUR "We expect euro-zone gross domestic product to contract further in the first quarter of 2012 and very possibly in the second quarter as well" - Howard Archer, chief European economist at IHS Global Insight European exports rose for a third straight month in January, adding to signs the region is recovering after contraction in the fourth quarter. The 17-nation currency bloc posted a trade deficit of 7.6 billion euros in January, said the European Union's statistics agency Eurostat on Friday. USD "Consumers are pretty stretched at this point" - Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James & Associates Inc U.S. industrial production was little changed in February, compared to the previous month, said the Federal Reserve on Wednesday. GBP "Both the systemic risk ...

News of debt contagion spreading across the euro zone has several economists worried that a toppling of consumer confidence may be up next, followed by additional ratings downgrades that lead into an ever deepening spiral of debt and default. With today's ZEW reports on economic sentiment expected at 10:00 GMT, forex traders may catch a glimpse into the early evolution of the investment landscape as it turns towards another crisis. Economic News USD - USD Rising as Safe-Havens Soar The US dollar (USD) was seen increasing yesterday as traders began to seek shelter following speculation that growth forecasts across Europe will become further depressed as traders flee risk. The value of safe-haven assets like the greenback and Swiss franc (CHF) have been buoyed by a shift away from higher ...

The Week Ahead Highlights * QE speculation leads to broad-based USD weakness * The UK's deficit plan under the microscope * MPC minutes crucial for sterling in the short-term * Europe's peripheral concerns put to bed for now * BoC likely to hold steady on rates, growth concerns * Key data and events to watch next week QE speculation leads to broad-based USD weakness The markets have been fixated on the potential of further Fed easing measures in the form of a second round of asset purchases or 'QE2'. This past week gave a lot of clues into the Fed's thinking with the release of the September 21 FOMC meeting minutes and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech at Friday's Boston Fed conference. The meeting minutes showed that 'many' on FOMC noted too-slow growth and ...

Previous session overview The dollar fell to a fresh post-intervention low against the yen on Thursday, continuing its near-steady slide against a broad swath of currencies. It hit an intraday low of JPY83.23 in afternoon Asian trade, breaking through the previous resistance point of JPY83.50. At 0550 GMT, it was at JPY83.37 compared with JPY83.70 in late New York trade. Market players remain on edge about a fresh bout of intervention by Japanese authorities, but with Tokyo apparently sitting on the sidelines for more than two weeks, traders are left wondering whether Japan has a "line in the sand" or not. The government spent an estimated JPY1.8 trillion on Sept. 15 to push the yen lower. The euro followed the dollar's trend, falling to a low of JPY113.20 against the yen at 0550 GMT, ...

The Euro fell broadly throughout the night following news that the Spanish government is planning to takeover a smaller savings bank due to a failed merger attempt. The EUR/USD, currently trading below the 1.2300 level, has fallen more than 100 pips since yesterday evening as one of the results. USD - Dollar Receives Boost Following Existing Home Sales Report While last week saw the U.S Dollar drop against many of the other major currencies, the greenback appeared to be coming back strong after a solid housing report helped boost investor confidence. Monday's Existing Home Sales report led to major gains for the Dollar against its primary counterparts. The report, which came in well above expectations, revealed that home sales increased for the second straight month. As a result, the ...