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Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 10/03/2012
Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary
U.S. Review
Nonfarm Payroll Report Continues to Show Progress
The big headline for the week was the nonfarm payroll report which showed the labor market added 227,000 jobs in February with the unemployment rate unchanged at 8.3 percent. The private sector added 233,000 jobs with the largest gains in temporary help, manufacturing, education & health and leisure & hospitality.
The real trade deficit of the United States widened in December to -$49.1 billion from -$48.3 billion. While much of the drop was due to an increase in petroleum prices, we expect trade to be a drag on first quarter economic growth.
Positive Jobs Report Continues to Support Growth
This week's economic indicators continued to signal a moderate pace of economic ...
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Analysis: Greek default may be gift to other euro strugglers
(Reuters) - Greece's tortuous debt restructuring and threat of retroactive laws to compel reluctant creditors heaps regulatory risk onto investors but may make voluntary sovereign debt revamps more attractive and likely for other cash-strapped euro sovereigns and their creditors.
Thursday could mark a climax of the Greek debt workout with private creditors due to respond to an offer that would see them effectively write off more than 70 percent of the face value of their bonds in return for new debt with a series of sweeteners.
With Greek government bonds currently trading at less than 20 cents in the euro and the risk of a total wipeout if Greece decided to unilaterally refuse all payments, a majority will likely go for it. Legally-binding majorities are another matter.
Athens said ...
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Why Buffett and Gartman are Wrong About Gold
Warren Buffett doesn’t like gold. Neither does Dennis Gartman. That settles it for us; gold must be a table-pounding buy.
In this year’s annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders, Warren Buffett scorned gold as an asset that is “forever unproductive.”
“ will never produce anything,” he wrote. “Gold has two significant shortcomings, being neither of much use nor procreative.”
Buffett’s statement is literally correct, but it has two significant shortcomings, being neither of much use nor insightful. No one holds gold hoping it will produce something. They hold gold because no one can produce it. Precisely for this reason, mankind has considered gold the ultimate money for several thousand years…and it has performed this role with meritorious distinction.
Gold’s appeal waxes and ...
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Obama to Cut Mortgage Fees for 3 Million Homeowners
President Barack Obama moved to aid the stressed housing market on Tuesday, urging the Congress to produce additional measures to bolster the economy, signaling recent housing reports where somehow "positive" and confirming a vast of three million U.S. homeowners are struggling with rocket-sky mortgage rates.
The Obama administration stepped today with a proposal of cheaper government-backed mortgages to reduce fees on mortgages the Federal Housing Administration insures. This step enables borrowers with higher-cost FHA loans to refinance and probably save a typical FHA borrower about a thousand dollars a year.
The U.S dollar is by far the biggest winner of the day, topping its most-traded counterparts, as traders swithced off the risk mode and got more appealed to safe havens, follwing ...
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Greek Debt Swap Fears Continue to Weigh on EUR
Ongoing concerns regarding the Greek debt swap later this week, weighed down on the euro throughout yesterday's trading session. Risk aversion kept the EUR/USD close to the 1.3200 level, while the EUR/JPY dropped some 100 pips before staging a slight recovery during the evening session. Today, traders will want to continue monitoring any announcements out of the euro-zone for clues as to the level of risk appetite in the marketplace. Positive news may help the euro recoup some of its recent losses.
Economic News
USD - US Indicators Signal Further Growth in US Economy
Confidence in the US economic recovery was boosted yesterday, following the release of a better than expected ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. The PMI, which came in at 57.3, was seen as further evidence that the US economy is ...
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Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 04/03/2012
Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 04/03/2012
U.S. Review
A Better Tone to the Data but Growth Remains Sluggish
The economic data clearly have a better feel to them but there is no evidence of a sudden break out to the upside.
Fourth quarter real GDP was revised up to a 3.0 percent annual rate and inflation was also revised slightly higher.
Personal income came in slightly below expectations but upward revisions to previously published data put the saving rate at 4.6 percent in January, well above the earlier reported level of 4.0 percent.
Manufacturing data were mixed, with orders down but purchasing managers' surveys remaining strong.
Lots of Good News but Still Only Modest Growth
We received a full complement of economic reports this week, providing new intel ...
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YouTradeFX Daily Market Analysis : 29/02/2012
Fundamental News:
Today’s Highlights:
GDP (QoQ) (U.S, 13:30 GMT)
Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies (U.S, 15:00 GMT)
German 10-Year Bund Auction (GER, 10:30 GMT)
German Unemployment Rate (GER, 08:55 GMT)
Core CPI (YoY) (EUR, 10:00 GMT)
The Conference Board released a report on Tuesday showing a notable rebound by its consumer confidence index in the month of February. Consumer confidence index jumped to 70.8 in February from a revised 61.5 in January. While, Home prices in major U.S. metropolitan areas saw continued weakness in the month of December, according to a report released by Standard & Poor's on Tuesday. The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city home price index for December was down by 4 percent compared to the same month a year ago.
Retail sales in Australia grew at ...
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Greece downgraded; Euro recovers pace ahead of LTRO
Morning Briefing : Greece downgraded; Euro recovers pace ahead of LTRO
What's new:
Asia: Asian equities in positive territory ahead of ECB LTRO
Japan: Retail trade grows despite expectations for a decline
Greece: S&P downgrades Greece debt to selective default
FOREX: Euro recovers ground lost yesterday
Forex rates in Asia and Indices:
EURUSD: 1.3391 – 1.3451.
USDCHF: 0.8962 – 0.8999.
GBPUSD: 1.5814 - 1.5864.
EURJPY: 107.29 – 108.46.
USDJPY: 80.01– 80.68.
DowJones: 12’981.51 -0.01%
NASDAQ: 2'966.16 +0.08%
S & P 500: 1'367.59 +0.14%
Nikkei: 9’722.52 +0.92%
Shanghai: 2'451.86 +0.20%
Gold: $ 1'774.50
Crude Oil: $ 108.29
Comments:
Earlier data from Japan showed that the yearly figure for Japanese retail trade grew to 1.9% lower than the previous month’s reading of 2.5% but managing to ...
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YouTradeFX Daily Market Analysis : 28/02/2012
Fundamental News:
Today’s highlights:
Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (US, 13:30 GMT)
German CPI (MoM) (GER, Tentative)
Italian 10-Year BTP Auction (ITA, 10:10 GMT)
CB Consumer Confidence (US, 15:00 GMT)
GfK German Consumer Climate (GER, 07:00 GMT)
Pending home sales in the U.S. rose by more than expected in the month of January, according to a report released by the National Association of Realtors on Monday, with the pending home sales index rising to its highest level in almost two years. Pending home sales index rose 2.0 percent to 97.0 in January from a downwardly revised 95.1 in December.
Japanese small business confidence weakened in February, survey results from Shoko Chukin Bank showed Tuesday. The headline business confidence index fell to 45.3 from 45. ...
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