ForexTribe is a french website mainly created to share graphic analysis and trade ideas on the Forex Forum.
Situation May Improve For The EuroTitle:
YouTradeFX Daily Market Analysis : 25/05/2012
Fundamental News
Today’s highlights
- GfK German Consumer Climate (GER, 07:00 GMT)
- French Consumer Confidence (FRA, 07:45 GMT)
- Spanish PPI (YoY) (SPAIN, 08:00 GMT)
- Employment Level (SUI, 08:15 GMT)
- Michigan Consumer Sentiment (U.S., 14:55 GMT)
According to the Labor Department, new unemployment claims in the U.S came in at a seasonally adjusted level of 370,000, a slight decline from the previous week's revised level of 372,000. While, U.S durable goods orders edged up by 0.2 percent in April after tumbling by 3.7 percent in March, the Commerce Department said in a report on Thursday.
According to Bloomberg, China’s biggest banks may fall short of loan targets for the first time in at least seven years as an economic slowdown crimps demand for credit, three ...
Title:
Greek Debt Crisis: Answers to Frequently Asked Questions
Highlights
- An acceleration in deposit withdrawals, combined with the prospect of an anti-austerity party winning the next election, has brought to the fore concerns about a potential Greek exit from the euro zone.
- Our base case assumption is that under the most likely scenario, the Greek election will lead to a government that sticks to an EU/IMF program, even if the terms are renegotiated.
- However, we do believe that Greece needs a further restructuring of its debt and we do think the country will ultimately exit the euro - we're just not convinced that Europe is ready for this to happen at the moment.
- If an accident does occur and Greece does leave the euro in the near term, it would have global financial ramifications that could range from severe to catastrophic. ...
Title:
Dollar Gains on Negative Risk Sentiment & Good US Fundamentals
The US dollar advanced today on fears of the worsening crisis in Europe that drove investors to safer currencies and the dollar in particular as the US economy continue to show signs of recovery.
Traders are worried by decline of Italy’s economy and speculation that Spain may be the next country to ask for a bailout. There was no major news from Europe recently, and that is not good as without a significant positive event the situation in the eurozone would worsen, not improve. It is not surprising that demand for safe currencies was strong. The greenback even managed to outperform the yen, another currency considered to be a safe haven, but many analysts believe that the US currency would not gain on Japan’s one for long.
Fundamentals in the United States are not perfect, but definitely ...
Title:
European Market Update : 22/05/2012
Fitch cuts Japan's sovereign rating two notches
Economic Data
(JP) Japan Apr Supermarket Sales Y/Y: --1.9% v -2.4% prior
(FI) Finland Apr Unemployment Rate: 8.4% v 8.4%e
(DK) Denmark May Consumer Confidence Indicator: 0.4 v 0.6 prior
(ZA) South Africa Mar Leading Indicator: 134.5 v 134.4 prior
(NL) Netherlands May Consumer Confidence: -38 v -32 prior
(NO) Norway Q1 GDP Q/Q: 1.4% v 0.9%e; GDP Mainland Norway Q/Q: 1.1% v 0.9%e
(UK) Mar ONS UK House Prices Y/Y: -0.4% v +1.0% prior
(UK) Apr Public Finances (PSNCR): -£23.2B v -£6.0Be; Public Sector Net Borrowing: -£18.8B v -£22.8Be; PSNB ex Interventions: -£16.5B v -£20.0Be
(UK) Apr CPI M/M: 0.6% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 3.0% v 3.1%e; Core CPI Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.0%e
(UK) Apr RPI M/M: 0.7% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 3.5% v 3.4%e; Core RPI- Ex Mortgages Y/Y: 3.5% ...
Title:
EUR Resumes Bearish Trend
After steadily gaining on the dollar and yen yesterday in overnight trading, the euro once again turned bearish during the European session. Renewed concerns regarding the political situation in Greece triggered the bearish correction. Still, the common currency was able to avoid dropping to the four-month low hit last week. Turning to today, traders will want to pay attention to a batch of British and US economic indicators. Both the British CPI and Public Sector Net Borrowing figures are forecasted to come in well below last month's figures. If true, the GBP could take losses during mid-day trading. Later in the day, analysts are predicting that the US Existing Home Sales figure will show improvements in the American Real Estate sector. If true, the dollar could move up as a result.
...
Title:
Safe-Haven Dollar
Forex News and Events:
Friday’s trading session was mostly uneventful with all the focus shifted to Facebook’s IPO. Many markets that had been freefalling these last two weeks caught a breather, with gold, silver, and the EUR gaining 1.12%, 2.57% and 0.63% respectively against the USD. The reversal has been attributed to a weak Philly Fed reading on economic activity in a sign that the world’s reserve currency is riskier than panicked markets are pricing. The weak number raised speculation over a new round of interventions from the part of the Fed in order to boost its economy. WTI however, was not able to profit from this reversal as it dropped to a six-month low before closing at 91.33. A 22-year high in inventory levels for the US could explain the decoupling of oil from the rest of ...
Title:
European Market Update : 21/05/2012
Spain's banking sector said to be calling on market regulator for renewed ban on short-selling
Economic Data
(EU) ECB: €809M borrowed in overnight loan facility €839M prior; €762.4B parked in deposit facility v €785.1B prior
(JP) Japan Apr Nationwide Dept. Sales Y/Y: 1.3% v 14.1% prior; Tokyo Dept. Store Sales Y/Y: 6.7% v 26.7% prior
(IN) India Apr CPI Y/Y: 10.4% v 9.4% prior
(DE) Germany Apr Producer Prices M/M: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.5%e
(HU) Hungary Mar Avg Gross Wages Y/Y: 2.7% v 6.5%e v 6.9% prior
(RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e May 14th (RUB): 6.93T v 6.88T prior
(ES) Spain Central Bank (BOS): Mar Bad Loan Ratio at 8.37% v 8.16% prior; - Lending -3.1% y/ym, Deposits -4.2% y/y
(IT) Italy Mar Industrial Orders M/M: 3.5% v 1.0%e; Y/Y: -14.3% v -13.2% prior
(IT) Italy ...
Title:
Main Focus to Remain On Spain and Greece As Well As U.K. Fundamentals
Worries are expected to continue this week in the European continent amid the fiscal and economic woes in Spain in addition to the political upheavals in Greece.
The situation seems to be getting worse which may provoke the need for further measures by European officials to prevent the escalation of the European debt crisis.
Fears soared last week after the downgrade of Spain`s Banco Santander, the country`s largest lender, and BBVA by Moody`s amid the government`s efforts to reform the ailing banking sector, and the rise in borrowing cost at a bond selling auction.
On the other hand, fundamentals showed that the euro area`s fourth largest economy recorded 0.3% contraction in the first quarter, following the 0.3% contraction in the last quarter of 2011; therefore, the country is ...
Title:
Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 19/05/2012
U.S. Review
To QE3 or Not To QE3: That is the Question
- Some market participants are beginning to speculate about another round of quantitative easing. Although recent growth indicators have not been particularly stellar, the economy is still growing. Moreover, core CPI inflation in the neighborhood of 2 percent means that the threshold for more QE is relatively high.
- Overall, indicators were positive during the week. Housing starts increased by 2.6 percent in April, the Empire Manufacturing index improved to 17.09 in May from a 6.56 print in April and retail sales printed a 0.1 percent increase in April, in line with expectations.
To QE3 or Not To QE3: That is the Question
QE3 seems to have more lives that a cat; it comes back into the forefront of the U.S. economy discussion ...
|