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SignalTitle:
Weekly Focus: Weak Data Expected to Trigger Policy Response
Weekly Focus: Weak Data Expected to Trigger Policy Response
Market Movers ahead
- US non-farm payrolls are expected to rebound to 170K.
- We expect the manufacturing ISM index for May to weaken somewhat.
- The result of the Irish referendum on fiscal compact will most likely be a 'Yes'.
- In China focus will be on the release of the NBS manufacturing PMI.
Global Update
- Deteriorating PMIs and IFO signal that core Europe is in recession as well.
- EU summit produced few new details. Growth compact set to be endorsed in June.
- Greek polls suggest close run between Syriza and New Democracy.
- First release of US flash PMI showed a deterioration of economic conditions.
- The US housing market is a source of good news.
- Weak Chinese data are expected to ...
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XAU/USD (Gold) Daily technical analysis - May 2012
The pair XAU/USD (Gold) is currently moving below the lower band of its long term bullish channel (purple lines).
Resistance 2 : 1900 points
Resistance 1 : 1800 points
Key level : 1700 points
Support 1 : 1600 points
Support 2 : 1500 points
On the long term:
The trend is neutral since the exit of its bullish channel.
We will wait an exit of the range 1500/1600 to see a clear trend :
- Bullish if 1600 points is broken
- Bearish if 1500 points is broken.
On the short term:
The pair has validated in May the breakout of 1600 points, offering a sell signal.
The trend is bearish as far as 1650 points is resistance.
The breakout of 1500 points and 1500 points will both give a new sell signal.
In case of return above 1650 points, we will wait the breakout of 1700 points to see the return of ...
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AUD/USD Daily technical analysis - May 2012
The pair AUD/USD has validated in May a return below 1.0 and also an exit of its long term bullish channel (purple lines).
Resistance 2 : 1.15
Resistance 1 : 1.10
Key point ; 1.05
Support 1 : 1.00
Support 2 : 0.95
On the long term:
The trend is now neutral with the exit of its bullish channel.
We will wait an exit of the range 0.95/10 to see a clear trend on the pair:
- Bullish if 1.0 is broken
- Bearish if 0.95 is broken
On the short term:
The trend is bearish as far as 1.0250 is resistance.
The breakout of 0.95 will give a new sell signal and open the way towards 0.90.
In case of return above 1.0250, we will wait the breakout of 1.05 to see the return of the bullish trend.
Previous AUD/USD Daily Analysis - April 2012
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EUR/CHF Daily technical analysis - May 2012
The pair EUR/CHF is still moving below its bearish slant (purple line) since 2008.
The bearish slant is not unique and could be change a little if you want to take into account some highs/lows.
The pair lost all its volatility and is moving around the major support at 1.20.
Resistance 1 : 1.20
Resistance 2 : 1.25
Key point : 1.15
Support 1 : 1.10
Support 2 : 1.05
On the long term:
The long term trend is neutral between 1.20 and 1.25.
If 1.25 is broken, the trend will become bullish and is 1.20 is broken, the will be bearish.
On the short term:
The trend is bullish as far as 1.20 is support.
The breakout of 1.2250 and 1.25 will both give a new buy signal.
If 1.20 is broken, the trend will become bearish. The breakout of 1.15 will give a new sell signal.
Previous EUR/CHF Daily ...
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EUR/GBP Daily technical analysis - May 2012
The pair EUR/GBP continues its bearish rally below the lower band of its symmetrical Triangle Top.
On the long term:
The breakout of the lower band of the symmetrical triangle gave us a sell signal allowing the long term trend to become bearish.
The breakout of 0.81 just gave us a new sell signal.
The trend will remain bearish as far as 0.84 is resistance.
The breakout of 0.77 will give a new sell signal.
In case of return above 0.84, we will wait the breakout of 0.86 to see the return of the bullish trend.
On the short term:
The trend is clearly bearish as far as 0.83 is resistance.
The breakout of 0.78 and 0.77 will both give a new sell signal.
In case of return above 0.83, we will wait the breakout of 0.84 to see the return of the bullish trend.
Previous EUR/GBP Daily Analysis - ...
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EUR/JPY Daily technical analysis - May 2012
The pair EUR/JPY continues to move into its falling wedge. The pair has validated in May a return below 105 and is currently testing the next support at 100.
Resistance 2 :120
Resistance 1 : 115
Key level : 110
Support 1 : 105
Support 2 : 100
Support 3 : 95
Support 4 : 90
On the long term:
The trend is clearly bearish as far as the pair is moving into its falling wedge.
The breakout of 100/95/90 will all give a new sell signal.
We will wait the breakout of 115 to see the trend become bullish.
On the short term:
The trend is now bearish due to the return below 105.
As far as this level is resistance, the trend will remain bearish.
The breakouts of 100/95/90 will all give a new sell signal.
In case of return above 105, we will wait the breakout of 110 to see the return of the bullish ...
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EUR/USD Daily technical analysis - May 2012
The pair EUR/USD has validated the breakout of its long term bullish slant (green line) and is currently testing the support at 1.25.
Resistance 1 : 1.50
Resistance 1 : 1.45
Resistance 2 :1.40
The key point of the pair is at 1.35
Support 1: 1.30
Support 2 : 1.25
Support 3 : 1.20
The breakout of 1.30 gave us a sell signal and the pair is currently testing the support at 1.25.
The bullish slant (green line) could still be considered as tested given the fact that the breakout just occured.
Short and long term trend a bearish.
The breakout of 1.25 will give a new sell signal and open the way towards 1.20. A pullback on 1.30 stay possible.
If the pair get back above 1.30, the trend will become neutral. However, if 1.35 is broken, the trend will be bullish.
Previous EUR/USD Daily ...
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Market Drivers - Currencies : 25/05/2012
Market Drivers - Currencies
Today's Comment
As there are no major items on today's agenda, the markedly weaker-than-expected PMI data from Europe and China (as well as lower-than-expected IFO figures from Germany) published yesterday will undoubtedly show repercussions in Friday's market. Ironically, the equity market and commodity market did not show any considerable negative reactions to the news yesterday. The reason for this is most likely a fairly simple one – the weak economic indicators will increase the likelihood of a central bank intervention – lower interest rates – more QE, fiscal stimuli from China, etc. – and that will be to the liking of risky assets as they have become almost dependent on such measures to maintain the current levels. The poor PMI data signal that the ...
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Crude rebounds slightly after Iran-West talks failure
Crude oil managed to halt the sharp downside wave after Iran-West talks failed to reach an agreement over Iran’s nuclear program, which helped the commodity and pushed it to the upside despite the current circumstances in Europe.
Crude oil opened today’s session at $90.80 to reach so far a high of $91.28 and a low of $90.18, where it is currently trading around $91.17 a barrel.
The black gold gained bullish momentum after talks with Iran failed to reach an agreement after two days of negotiations which raised concerns over the country’s oil supplies as a military option remains on the table.
The U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said "significant differences" remain over Iran`s nuclear program following two days of talks in Baghdad. More talks will take place in Moscow June 18 ...
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