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Second Bailout PackageTitle:
European Market Update : 22/05/2012
Fitch cuts Japan's sovereign rating two notches
Economic Data
(JP) Japan Apr Supermarket Sales Y/Y: --1.9% v -2.4% prior
(FI) Finland Apr Unemployment Rate: 8.4% v 8.4%e
(DK) Denmark May Consumer Confidence Indicator: 0.4 v 0.6 prior
(ZA) South Africa Mar Leading Indicator: 134.5 v 134.4 prior
(NL) Netherlands May Consumer Confidence: -38 v -32 prior
(NO) Norway Q1 GDP Q/Q: 1.4% v 0.9%e; GDP Mainland Norway Q/Q: 1.1% v 0.9%e
(UK) Mar ONS UK House Prices Y/Y: -0.4% v +1.0% prior
(UK) Apr Public Finances (PSNCR): -£23.2B v -£6.0Be; Public Sector Net Borrowing: -£18.8B v -£22.8Be; PSNB ex Interventions: -£16.5B v -£20.0Be
(UK) Apr CPI M/M: 0.6% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 3.0% v 3.1%e; Core CPI Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.0%e
(UK) Apr RPI M/M: 0.7% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 3.5% v 3.4%e; Core RPI- Ex Mortgages Y/Y: 3.5% ...
Title:
Gold hits 4-1/2 month low, Greece heads for elections
Gold slipped to a fresh 4-1/2 month low on Tuesday as the euro continued to lose ground to the dollar after Greece's failure to form a coalition government heightened concerns over Europe's financial crisis and led investors to spurn risky assets.
After six rounds of fruitless wrangling, Greece abandoned efforts to form a government and called a new election that some investors fear may hand victory to the leftists, undo the country's financial bailout package, and push it closer to bankruptcy and out of the euro zone.
In response, gold slipped with the euro, which tumbled to new four-month lows in late New York trade. The euro had fallen in five of the last six sessions on worries over Greece's June election prospects, dragging gold down with it.
Title:
Euro still mixed despite upbeat growth data from the euro zone
Several factors are affecting the high yielding euro right now, where with the heavy load of fundamentals and events the euro is not able to define the intraday trend so far. Meanwhile, the sentiment is still mixed as Greeks still cannot reach an agreement regarding the creation of a government, while Moody`s downgraded 26 Italian banks, yet positivity remains stronger as the euro-region didn’t slip into recession after posting steady GDP figures.
Fears and tension eased in the market after growth data from Germany, France, Italy and finally the euro-area region, where GDP figures have beaten estimates in Germany and the euro zone, Stalled in France, yet missed estimates in Italy; however, the sentiment remained positive as the euro-area region skipped another phase of recession temporary. ...
Title:
EUR/GBP Testing 80.00 Barrier, As BoE Stops Printing Press
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Fixed Income: Largely uneventful session for core bonds
- Core bonds had an insignificant, technical and sentiment-driven session that left bond yields slightly higher in the close. Overnight, negative headline news on JP Morgan and Greece triggered a moderately strong opening of the Bund. Europe will be in the focus today with the publication of the Spanish banking plan and the EU spring forecasts.
- Currencies: EUR/GBP testing 80.00 barrier, as BoE stops printing press
- On Thursday, sentiment on risk turned slightly less negative, even without progress in the Greek debt/election crisis. Nevertheless, the decline in EUR/USD slowed. EUR/GBP reached a minor low just below 0.8000 as the BoE halted its program of asset purchases. For now, we see no ...
Title:
Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 11/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The overall manufacturing trend remains weak."
- Pierre-Olivier Beffy, chief economist at Exane BNP Paribas
French industrial production fell in March, said the national statistics office Insee on Thursday. Output contracted 0.9 per cent from February, when it gained 0.2 per cent.
USD
"It’s hard to get nervous that imports are rising."
- Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital Inc.
The number of Americans claiming for unemployment benefits fell to 367,000 in the week ended May 5 from 368,000 the week before, said the Department of Labor on Thursday.
GBP
"Our forecast is that they are done with QE, but you can’t rule out more later this year."
- Ross Walker, an economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc
The Bank of England kept rates on hold ...
Title:
Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 04/10/2012
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
Greece’s next government may hold a trump card worth more than $510 billion if it heeds voters’ demands to renegotiate its bailout with the European Union.
USD
Treasury prices declined on Thursday, pushing yields up from their lowest levels since February, as news out of Europe eased some near-term uncertainty and reduced demand for the relative safe-haven status of U.S. debt.
GBP
Bank of England officials halted stimulus expansion after seven months of bond purchases as the threat of inflation trumped concerns about an economy that’s succumbed to a double-dip recession. The nine-member Monetary Policy Committee led by Governor Mervyn King today held its quantitative-easing target at 325 billion pounds ($525 billion), ending a second round of stimulus. ...
Title:
Euro Extends Its Trip South As Speculation On Greek Exit Is Growing
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Fixed Income: Core bonds higher at first, but gave back gains in US session
- Fears about Greece and Spain continued to boost core bonds, but a rumours, later confirmed, that the EFSF would today disburse a tranche of the Greek bail-out loan triggered some correction and erased part of the German bond gains and almost all of the US ones. Today, the BoE decision on QE may affect overall bond markets.
- Currencies: euro extends its trip South as speculation on Greek exit is growing
- On Wednesday, trading on global markets was still dominated by negative headlines on Europe. This weighed on the euro. After all, the decline of EUR/USD developed in an orderly way even as several EMU policymakers pondered the option of a Greek exit. Today, the BoE holds ...
Title:
Greek crisis drags euro, global stocks, oil lower
The euro, oil and world stocks fell on Tuesday as worries intensified that Greece could reject the bailout that saved it from a chaotic bankruptcy as new leadership sought to form a government two days after elections.
Voters in weekend polls in both Greece and France soundly rejected the harsh austerity measures that markets have seen as the way out of Europe's debt crisis, heightening the uncertainty of the path ahead for the euro zone.
Alexis Tsipras, the leader of Greece's Left Coalition party, began efforts to form a government by rejecting terms tied to the country's receipt of bailout funds and threatening to nationalize banks.
The head of a centrist conservative party, which won the most votes Sunday, said he would not back a minority government that renounced the bailout, ...
Title:
Euro, stocks, oil slump as Greece crisis deepens
The euro, oil and stocks fell on Tuesday as Greece's political crisis intensified after a call to form a new government renounced the terms of a bailout that is keeping the country's finances afloat.
The results of weekend elections in Greece and France, in which voters soundly rejected harsh austerity measures seen by markets as a way out of the debt crisis, heightened the uncertainty of the path ahead for the euro zone.
Alexis Tsipras, the leader of the Greece's Left Coalition party, began efforts to form a government by renouncing the EU/IMF bailout terms and threatening to nationalize banks.
The head of a centrist conservative party, which won the most votes Sunday, said he would not back a minority government that rejected the bailout, making repeat elections in a few weeks ...
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