Readings On The Labor Market

USD remains firmer after the disappointing ADP employment change. The report showed that 119k jobs were added in April from the prior downwardly revised 201k while the consensus was for a gain of 170k. Housing data released earlier showed a +0.1% increase in weekly mortgage applications from the prior -3.8% decline and Fed Governor Tarullo said that he sees ‘signs of gradual improvement' in U.S. housing. UST yields are lower as the softer labor data increases speculation of further Fed measures and 10-year yields dipped below the 1.90% mark. European bourses are mostly lower and US stock futures are pointing to a negative open as sentiment deteriorates. The DXY is higher today and approaching the 55-day SMA and Kijun line which converge around the 79.35/40 area. March factory orders are ...

(Reuters) - Oil prices turned higher on Tuesday after data showing the U.S. manufacturing sector expanded in April at its fastest pace in 10 months eased concerns about slowing economic growth. The supportive U.S. factory data from the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) helped U.S. crude end at its highest settlement in five weeks and lifted equities on Wall Street, sending the S&P 500 index up 1 percent and the Dow to its highest level since December 2007. .N Technical buying kicked in after U.S. crude moved above the 50-day moving average at $105.21 a barrel. Crude had hit formidable resistance at that level in recent sessions. "The ISM data pushed crude up and strong equities are helping, and when crude moved above the 50-day moving average that triggered some technical buying," ...

FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK at 0800 GMT (EDT +0400) WORLD The RBNZ kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.5%, but implicitly raised the prospect of a future interest rate cut. The short overnight policy statement warned that continued strength of theNew Zealanddollar may force the bank “to reassess the outlook for monetary policy”. Previously, only a deferral of interest rate hikes was being considered in the case of persistent currency strength, but now two-way risk has been injected into the policy language. Surprisingly, theNew Zealanddollar did not weaken in response, and soon gained 30 pips in line with a more supportive backdrop for risk appetite. Meanwhile, FX investors continue to digest the FOMC’s latest policy announcement and forecast revisions. Near-term GDP growth and inflation ...

The Week Ahead Highlights UK Q1 GDP to put the brakes on more QE French political risk comes to a head Italy and Spain turn attention to fiscal targets BOJ to back up rhetoric with action FOMC still in wait-and-see mode Market Moves UK Q1 GDP to put the brakes on more QE The major data release in the UK this week will be the preliminary Q1 GDP reading. There is considerable uncertainty around this figure due to some strong data in the services sector, especially retail sales, balanced by some disappointments in the manufacturing and construction sectors. Retail sales for March rose 1.5%, more than the 0.4% expected. This was mostly due to the effects of good weather boosting demand for clothes, footwear and gardening equipment. This helped to reverse some of the ...

U.S. Review Look Past the Monthly Volatility and See the Trend This week of economic releases painted a somewhat mixed picture, but the underlying trend still reflects an economy that is growing at a modest pace. The milder-than-usual winter likely brought some activity forward and below-consensus readings are due in part to payback. Housing starts, existing home sales and industrial production all posted disappointing readings in March that are likely not indicative of the underlying trend. Headline retail sales, however, came in more than double the consensus estimate in March, ending the first quarter on a positive note. Early Spring Brings Payback Period The full week of economic releases painted a somewhat mixed picture, but the underlying trend still reflects an economy ...

The Week Ahead Highlights QE or not QE? BOJ under pressure to ease No more support from the ECB Will the UK avoid a recession? Market Moves: Key Levels QE or not QE? The release of the FOMC minutes earlier this week and speeches by Fed officials have resulted in markets reducing their expectations of additional easing. However, today's disappointing jobs figures (120K in headline NFP vs. cons. 205K) have brought the speculation of more stimulus back into focus. To illustrate the extent of the negative surprise in the NFP print, the lowest estimate was for the addition of 175K payrolls out of the 80 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. QE3 chatter is making its rounds again in the markets and the US dollar has tumbled against most of the majors as heightened speculation ...

Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 30/03/2012 U.S. Review Mixed Signals Housing data released this week were a bit disappointing but also offered some signs of optimism. Pending home sales fell in February but remained near a one-year high. The decline in the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index in January was the smallest since July, although the index did reach a new cyclical low. Personal spending rose in February by the most since July, as consumers dipped into savings to spend more on services. However, consumer confidence slipped in March due to a decline in the expectations index amid rising gas prices, although purchase plans improved. Mixed Signals Housing data released this week were slightly disappointing but also provided some signs of optimism. Pending home ...

Treasuries prices fell on Wednesday after weak demand for a debt sale dampened gains built on Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's assurances U.S. interest rates will remain low. In a day of choppy trade, the lackluster reception for $35 billion in five-year notes overshadowed weaker than forecast durable goods orders that earlier lifted bond prices from session lows. Another influence was the Fed's purchase of $4.81 billion of Treasuries maturing between August 2020 and November 2021. The purchases helped the bond market erase its morning losses, leaving it flat to slightly higher by early afternoon before the Treasury auction. Treasury losses widened when the stock market began to erase some of the day's worst losses and the S&P 500 index clung to the 1,400 level, hurting the bid ...

(Reuters) - A strengthening jobs market helped lift U.S. consumer confidence to a one-year high this month, but a surprisingly large plunge in orders for some factory goods cast a cloud over signs of increased economic momentum. Other data on Tuesday showed home prices fell in December, a reminder of the uphill climb faced by the housing market. A recent slew of positive data had allayed fears economic growth could slow sharply early in the year. Other gauges of manufacturing activity have been solid, and the unemployment rate sank to a three-year low last month. But Tuesday's data muddied the waters. "From an economic perspective, it shows that we are moving very slowly forward, " said Paul Nolte, managing director at Dearborn Partners in Chicago. U.S. stock indexes rose modestly on ...