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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 05/16/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"Germany is holding up the rest of the euro zone”"
- Nick Kounis, head of macroeconomic research at ABN Amro
Germany helped the Eurozone avoid its second recession in three years. Overall gross domestic product stagnated in the first three months of 2012, compared to the previous quarter, Eurostat data showed on Tuesday.
USD
"There’s a lot of slack in the economy"
- Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James & Associates Inc.
Inflation in the U.S. stagnated in April, restrained by a decline in energy costs. The core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy costs, rose 0.2 per cent, showed Bureau of Labor Statistics data on Tuesday.
GBP
"March's UK trade figures showed a bit of an improvement, although the external sector still looks likely to ...
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Asia shares gain as U.S. data raises hope of Fed easing
(Reuters) - Asian shares rose on Monday as weaker-than-expected U.S. growth data left open the possibility of further monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve to boost growth, but trading was subdued with Japanese and Chinese markets closed.
The dollar remained pressured by Friday's report showing annual growth in the U.S. economy cooled in the first quarter to 2.2 percent, below a 2.5 percent forecast, and concerns about lower fuel demand brought oil prices lower.
"A flavor of QE (quantitative easing) is back in the air, driving the U.S. dollar lower and risky assets higher," said Sebastien Galy, strategist at Societe Generale.
Asian equities followed the rise in global equities on Friday on the back of strong earnings reports, although Asian growth prospects were clouded as South ...
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Insight: U.S. barnyards help China super-size food production
(Reuters) - Inside a dimly lit barn in northeast Indiana, where the air smells faintly of corn and earth, the future of China's food supply is squealing for attention.
A farmhand shuffles through the crowd of pigs inside pen 7E3, patting their fleshy pink backs and checking their water trough. The animals here at the Whiteshire Hamroc farm have been bred for one purpose: to be flown halfway around the world, on a journey fueled by China's appetite for food independence
In a country where pork is a culinary staple, the demand for a protein-rich diet is growing faster than Chinese farmers can keep up. While Americans cut back on meat consumption to the lowest levels seen in two decades, the Chinese now eat nearly 10 percent more meat than they did five years ago.
China's solution: to ...
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How Market Sentiment Moves With the Greek Debt Crisis
A couple of hours south of Kaikoura — and the most famous crayfish picnic tables on the South Island’s east coast (Nin’s Bin) — you’ll discover the fastest growing wine region in New Zealand; 80 vineyards sprawling across more than 1,200 hectares of picturesque plantings…
Alas, Fellow Reckoner, there are far less important things to worry about than shellfish and Chardonnay. So, let’s get right to them…
Global markets rebounded yesterday after what had been the steepest selloff of the year on Tuesday. The Dow clawed back about a third of the previous session’s 200-point loss. Indexes in Europe were up too with stocks from the Thames to the Rhine gaining between a half and one percent after Tuesday’s two and three percent losses. For its part, the euro edged higher too…as did oil…and gold… ...
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What the Greek Rescue is Really About
In today’s Daily Reckoning, we’ll do something we can barely stand to do: we’re going to write one more time about Greece. If you can stand to read it, you may come to the same conclusion we reached.
That conclusion is simple: what’s going on Europe has nothing to do with solving a debt crisis and everything to do with preserving a corrupt system based on limitless debt and growing government power. The sooner you understand that fact, the sooner you’ll be able to prepare for what happens next. There are two options for what happens next, and we’ll get to those shortly.
First, though, doesn’t it strike you as strange that all of Europe can be brought to its knees by tiny little Greece? Greek GDP is just 2.4% of Europe’s GDP. In economic terms, Greece doesn’t matter. Its lack of growth or ...
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Fed should raise rates in 2013, Bullard says
(Reuters) - The Federal Reserve should start raising interest rates next year, a top Fed official said on Monday, arguing that even if rates stay near zero for many years, U.S. economic output will not bounce back to pre-recession levels.
Last month the Fed said it was likely to keep interest rates exceptionally low through late 2014 to bolster a recovery that was moving too slowly.
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said he disagreed with that decision, arguing that the housing collapse means unemployment is likely to stay high and labor markets will improve only slowly even if rates are kept low for many years.
Bullard, who does not have a vote on the Fed's policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee this year, is seen as a policy centrist.
"It's important to start to remove ...
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Oil falls on economic, demand concerns
(Reuters) - Oil prices fell on
Friday, pressured by economic uncertainty ahead of a possible debt deal in Greece, concerns about China's sluggish manufacturing sector and weak U.S. petroleum demand.
China's manufacturers had a sluggish start to the year, a survey of purchasing managers showed, weighing on oil and also on copper prices.
News that major powers seeking to negotiate an end to Iran's suspected pursuit of nuclear weapons are soon to lay out what Tehran would need to do return to talks added to pressure on oil prices, analysts and broker said.
"There are questions about Europe as far as (oil) demand and yesterday's weak U.S. gasoline demand numbers indicate the economy may not be doing as well as thought," said Phil Flynn, analyst at PFGBest Research in Chicago.
"Signs of ...
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Oil falls on economy worry, dollar strength
Oil prices fell on Friday and were on pace to post a weekly loss on pressure from a stronger dollar and uncertainty ahead of a possible debt deal in Greece along with concerns about China's contracting manufacturing sector.
The dollar index .DXY strengthened as the euro fell from a two-week peak against the greenback as investors locked in profits from this week's rally and remained wary about the outcome of Greek debt negotiations.
Slowing Chinese growth added to pressure on oil prices after a survey of purchasing managers showed China's factory activity likely fell for a third consecutive month in January.
News that major powers seeking to negotiate an end to Iran's suspected pursuit of nuclear weapons are soon to lay out what Tehran would need to do return to talks added to pressure ...
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The Weekly Bottom Line : 07/01/2012
The Weekly Bottom Line : 07/01/2012
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK
United States
Data released this week showed the U.S. economy gained some traction towards the end of last year.
December's non-farm payrolls surpassed market expectations with a net addition of 200K jobs. This drove the unemployment rate down to 8.5%.
However, we should keep our expectations on a short leash. Risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside, dominated be a grim European outlook and its potential ripple effects on this side of the Atlantic.
Canada
The Canadian economy added 18,000 net new jobs in December, following two months of job losses.
Despite December's gain, employment in Canada has been declining on a trend basis, with only 7,000 jobs created during the last six months, compared ...
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