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Price Is Testing The ResistanceTitle:
RBA still dovish
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK at 0800 GMT (EDT +0400)
WORLD
The RBA’s quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy provided further colour on the decision to cut the cash rate by 50 bp on Tuesday. End-2012 forecasts for both core inflation and GDP were modestly downgraded. This came as a minor relief to FX investors, some of whom had feared such a large rate reduction might need substantial forecast downgrades in order to justify it. AUDUSD climbed 20 pips afterwards but eventually gave back all gains. Our analysts team note though that the bank’s assessment of domestic growth now appears to be much less upbeat. They also expect next week’s budget to confirm suspicions that a very significant amount of fiscal drag is in the pipeline over the coming 12 months. Consequently they now expect another 50 bp ...
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EUR-AUD DAILY 03-05-2012
The pair is testing the down trend and the very important long-term resistance zone between 1.2955-1.2878, corresponds to 38.2% fibo (1.2879).
Sell to target return on 23.6% fibo.
The analysis remains valid if the price does not break the downtrend.
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USD Higher ahead of Labor Data, ECB Press Conference
USD drifting higher ahead of the ECB press conference and weekly initial jobless claims which are expected to decline to 379k from the prior week’s 388k. Risk sentiment is broadly higher with European bourses and US stock futures trading to the upside while UST yields are slightly higher. Of the G10 currencies, the buck is strongest against the NZD after an unexpected jump in NZ unemployment. The dollar index is firmly above the 79.00 figure and being supported by the daily Tenkan line, however it faces the convergence of the Kijun line and cloud base around the 79.40 area as near term resistance. On the data front, weekly jobless claims, 1Q nonfarm productivity, and unit labor costs are due at 0830ET while the ISM services report for April is due at 1000ET. Fed speakers today include ...
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Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (08:45 GMT)
EUR/USD
The single currency extends its near-term weakness off 1.3282, yesterday’s high, where short-term rally was limited, just ahead of key barrier at 1.3290/1.3300. Brief consolidation above initial support at 1.3200, was short-lived, as more negative data from Eurozone, increased pressure on that pair. Near-term studies weakened further, as the price broke below 1.3200/1.3172 supports, with immediate focus at 1.3157, 27 Apr low and 1.3138, 50% retracement of 1.2993/1.3282 upleg, ahead of more significant support at 1.3100, 23 Apr low / Fib 61.8%. Previous support at 1.3200, now reverts to initial resistance.
Res: 1.3200, 1.3232, 1.3243, 1.3269
Sup: 1.3157, 1.3138, 1.3123, 1.3100
GBP/USD
Commences the third leg of reversal from 1.6300, 30 Apr fresh 8-month high, after initial ...
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Euro well bid, Aussie well offerd
The Reserve Bank of Australia shocked markets with a 50bps rate cut this morning, the bank cut interet rate from 4.25% to 3.75% while markets were expecting an imminent cut of 25bps. Australia’s slowing economy and headache coming overseas from Europe in addition to the slowdown in its major trade partner China were the main reasons behind the aggressive move. Thus, we have seen the Australian and Newzealand dollar under pressure today.
While most European markets were off for Labor day, the euro was well bid as the common currency bottomed at the support area and the 50-days SMA around 1.3220, to resume the bullish bias retesting areas near 1.3300 again, however 1.3300 seen the next important pivot for the pair over the short term. Above 1.3300 the door could be open towards March high ...
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UK Economic Woes Continue To Mount
After plunging back into recession in the first quarter of 2012, UK data at the start of the second quarter hasn't been particularly encouraging. Today the manufacturing PMI survey for April was weaker than expected at 50.5 down from a revised 51.9 in March, which was the lowest level since December. The biggest decline was in the export sector, as the UK's largest trading partner, the Eurozone, suffers from its own economic and sovereign woes. However, what was worrying is that new orders to Asia and the US also fell sharply, which is concerning as they may not be able to balance out the weak growth coming from Europe.
Could the BOE expand QE?
This report is the first of three April PMI surveys released over the coming days and the results for the construction and services sectors will ...
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EUR/USD Ignored The S&P Downgrade Of Spain
Sunrise Market Commentary : 30/04/2012
- Fixed Income: new highs for Bund Future (141.38) and US Note Future (132-17)
- Core bonds set new contract highs on Friday after the Spanish rating downgrade. However, sentiment changed in the European session and led to return action. Today, trading will be thin ahead of tomorrow's Labour Day Holiday in most of Europe. Main items this week will be the ECB meeting (Thursday) and the US payrolls (Friday).
- Currencies: EUR/USD ignored the S&P downgrade of Spain.
- On Friday morning, the focus on the European markets was on the S&P downgrade of Spain. However, the reaction developed in a very orderly way. EUR/USD reversed the early losses and the dollar lost further ground after the weaker than expected US GDP. USD/JPY is testing the key ...
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Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:00 GMT)
EUR/USD
No significant changes from last Friday, when the pair reached fresh 4-week high at 1.3269. Overnight price action moved within narrow range , hovering around 1.3250. Positive tone on short-term studies keeps the upside favored, with immediate targets at 1.3269 and 1.3277, 02 Apr low, above which to expose psychological barrier at 1.3300. Overnight’s low at 1.3230 offers initial support, ahead of 1.3200, figure support / 55 day MA, while only break below 1.3157/64, last Friday’s low / Fib 38.2% of 1.2993/1.3269 ascend, would delay bulls.
Res: 1.3269, 1.3277, 1.3300, 1.3366
Sup: 1.3229, 1.3211, 1.3200, 1.3157
GBP/USD
Maintains strong bullish tone, with gains accelerating after clearance of 1.6200 barrier. Overnight’s gap higher opening confirms upside action towards 1.6300, ...
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JPY Advances ahead of Bank of Japan
USD remains soft after Bernanke indicated that the door was open for more stimulus if necessary at yesterday's press conference. Markets seemed to focus on this despite the upward revisions to the growth outlook and downward estimates of the unemployment rate this year. Weekly initial jobless claims today came in higher than consensus with a print of 388k from the prior 389k which was revised higher from 386k. The 4-week moving average in initial claims rose by over 6k for the third straight week - not an encouraging sign for the labor market. With employment struggling to gain traction and mixed interpretations of yesterday's FOMC meeting, markets are likely to focus on data surprises and price action will be impacted by QE3 speculation as it is still on the table.
UST yields are lower ...
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