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Price Is Testing The ResistanceTitle:
Forex - All Eyes on Draghi and the ECB
Forex News and Events:
FX risk correlated trades were under pressure in Asian session as Greece’s PM Papandreou bombshell announcement had investors very nervous. Clearly the shift of the Greece crisis in the realm of politics has traders unconvinced that an orderly handling of Greece will occur. In fact, there are many who suggest that the decision by Greece to hold a confidence vote then general referendum is merely a Machiavellian-esque strategy to force the Troika to provide better terms. Tomorrow Greek parliament faces a confidence vote and given the resignation of a PASOK member, plus the dissention in the ranks on base scenario is that PM Papandreou PASOK will lose its majority. Even if Papandreou party should retain the majority, the next major question will be should the ...
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Bernanke's Press Conference: Watch For Fireworks
The market's focus on euro zone events should not come as a surprise given the recent two year anniversary of the European debt crisis. Investors will be no less inclined after the decision by Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou to offer a referendum on the EU bailout package. However, today's FOMC decision highlights one of the main themes of the foreign exchange markets over the past few years; USD weakness. While the FOMC statement may go materially unchanged the newly introduced FOMC press conference with Chairman Ben Bernanke may provide a bit more fireworks.
Economic News
USD - Ignore the FOMC Statement, Focus on the Press Conference
The USD continues to lose the FX beauty pageant of the least ugly currency. Despite a sovereign debt crisis that has spread throughout Europe the ...
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Yen Intervention Delivers a Punch but fails to Provide Knockout Blow
After a lengthy period of jawboning the Japanese Ministry of Finance (MOF) moved to weaken the yen by selling an estimated ¥7 Trn. The timing of the move may have caught the market looking the other way given market positioning. However, the MOF failed to deliver a knockout blow as the technical damage on the charts was minimal at best.
Economic News
USD - USD is Bid in Risk Off Day
With the monthly close which caps an October that saw a sharp run up in the prices of risky assets the USD has caught a bid. $89 Bn of this bid likely came from the MOF and increased criticism of the European agreement has most markets risk averse to start the week. The bankruptcy filing by MF Global may have played a part in the day's movement as the broker is a major player in many fixed income and ...
Title:
USD is Bid in Risk Off Day
With the monthly close coming today which caps an October that saw a sharp run up in the prices of risky assets the USD has caught a bid. $89 Bn of this bid likely came from the MOF and increased criticism of the European agreement has most markets risk averse to start the week. The bankruptcy filing by MF Global may have played a part in the day's movement as the broker is a major player in many fixed income and derivative markets including European bonds.
European data underperformed today with an unexpected increase in the Italian unemployment rate and disappointing German retail sales for the month of September which fell 0.14%. US data was also lower than expected with the Chicago PMI slipping to 58.4 from 60.4. Expectations were for a smaller decline to 59.2. On a bright note ...
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Employment Data and Interest Rates Comes Into Focus This Week
With a heavy news day ahead, many traders are awaiting this week's data releases before buying into riskier assets, especially with this week's employment and interest rate focus. With today's high liquidity, some heavy movement is expected, though this is just the start of a very volatile week; a fact alone which could hold liquidity back.
Economic News
USD - US Dollar Gains Ground at Start of Non-Farm Week
The US dollar (USD) was seen trading moderately bullish Monday morning as traders saw a small increase in risk aversion following last week's economic reports. The EUR/USD rose last week following the completion of a long-term consolidation trend, reaching a 4-day high of 1.4250. Late last week, however, the pair bounced off the resistance level and is now trading near 1.4140.
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Title:
EU Summit Relief Rally May be Short-lived
The Week Ahead
Highlights
EU Summit relief rally may be short-lived
USD under pressure on a number of fronts
G-20, FOMC, ECB and RBA meetings next week
EU Summit relief rally may be short-lived
As expected, EU leaders came up with a sufficiently credible plan to prevent a disorderly default of Greece, recapitalize EU banks, and increase the size of the EFSF in an attempt to quell contagion to other EU sovereign debt. Risk markets responded with a massive rally on what we think is over-exuberance, but also likely due to a huge squeeze on short-risk/long USD positions. The details of the EFSF expansion, the Greek debt swap and other mechanisms are still to be worked out over the coming weeks, but market sentiment over the package appears to be fading rather quickly.
No less ...
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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 24/10/2011
Fundamental market overview
EUR
"These rating agencies should probably be considered one of the causes of this crisis"
- Michel Barnier, EU commissioner for Internal Market and Services
USD
"The American people want us to do something about the jobs crisis"
- Mitch McConnell, Senate Republican leader
GBP
"These relatively downbeat findings are understandable given the challenging economic backdrop"
- Robert Gardner, chief economist at Nationwide
CHF
"Market participants look ahead with excitement at the EU summit on Sunday"
- Christian Schmidt, a technical analyst for equities at Helaba Landesbank
JPY
"The market is still very unsure"
- Stephen Halmarick, head of investment markets research at Colonial First State Global Asset Management
Read more: FULL REPORT - Market ...
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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 17/10/2011
Fundamental market overview
EUR
"There's no credible alternaive to this government"
- Silvio Berlusconi, Italian Prime Minister
USD
"The data "reflects an economy that is sill struggling but won't fall back into recession"
- Omer Esiner, an analyst at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange
GBP
"The most recent economic news is far from posiive and we are seeing a rapid ightening in the supply of credit"
- Peter Williams, chairman at Acadametrics Ltd.
CHF
"Macro data are recovering globally"
- Urs Beck, equity porfolio manager at Zuercher Kantonalbank
JPY
"The market has taken posiively the idea of recapitalizing Europe's banks and stocks have rebounded for the past week"
- Kazuyuki Terao, chief investment officer at RCM Japan Co.
Read more: FULL REPORT - Market expectations
Market ...
Title:
What's Next for the Risk Appetite Rally? Key Factors to Consider from Europe and US
What's Next for the Risk Appetite Rally? Key Factors to Consider from Europe and US
Yesterday, one of the big questions was if the now 7-session risk-on rally would continue to have momentum or could it show some signs of topping off?
S&P500 - Hourly Chart - Week Ends on Strong Action as Trend Holds, To Top or Not to Top…
When looking at the S&P the big question is whether this upward trend -that has shown itself so clearly over the last nine trading sessions - can extend higher, or will it see some type topping off and a move to correction. We saw signs of that on Thursday as we retreated from the 1213 area, and here on my chart we fell below our shorter-term moving averages and found support at the 100-period ema. The bounce off that 100 moving average was a positive sign heading into ...
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