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Price Is Currently TestingTitle:
Dutch Fears Trump French Elections
Dutch Fears Trump French Elections
If you looked at the headlines from the weekend you may have thought that risk was poised to rally today. The first round of the French Presidential election was a tighter race than expected. Socialist Hollande won 27.1% of the vote while Sarkozy was not that far behind with 26.7%. The French left, which has called for ECB rate cuts and a re-negotiation of the EU's Fiscal Pact, did less well than expected, which should have calmed markets this morning. However, weak economic data out of the currency bloc combined with fears about the Dutch triple A credit rating has caused risk aversion to grip the markets at the start of this week.
Dutch budget wrangling hurts risk sentiment
The Netherlands has overtaken France as the largest political risk this week ...
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EUR-USD 23-04-2012
The pair is trading in down channel in the long picture, the price currently testing the upper limit and the long term resistance level 1.3210.
I think it's a good opportunity to sell to a return to 1.3000.
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GBP Continues to Outperform
USD slightly firmer across the board within its recent range with the largest gains currently against the yen. The dollar index continues to trade within its narrowing daily cloud which sees resistance ahead of the 80.00 figure. Weekly jobless claims disappointed with a drop of 2k to 386k (cons. 370k) from an upwardly revised 388k in the prior week. The 4-week moving average in initial claims rose by +5.5k to 374.8k but remains in a downward trend channel. Treasury yields are lower across the curve with the 10-year yields firmly below the 2.00% level after being rejected from the 100-day SMA yesterday and U.S. equity futures are mostly flat. Data due out at 1000ET includes the April Philly Fed index, March existing home sales, and leading indicators.
EUR softer against the majors except ...
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Spanish Debt Auction Only One Of Multiple Eurozone Risks
The European stock markets are in recovery mode today as we wait for the Spanish bond auction at 0930BST to set the tone. This auctions will be closely watched as Madrid tries to sell long-term debt, however its significance should not be overplayed as the size of 2014 and 2022 debt that is scheduled to be auctioned is less than EUR3 billion, which should be easily sucked up by the market.
10-year yields have retreated from their highs of 6.1%, but they remain 80 basis points above their level a month ago. The key things for investors to watch out for are the yield and the bid-to –cover ratio. If Spain has to pay more to sell debt maturing in 2022 than what 10-year yields are currently pricing it could spook the markets causing risky assets to sell off. Likewise, if it can sell debt at ...
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Markets pause for breath
The U.S. dollar continues to trade within a range with a slight downside bias, the index is struggling with the short term support of a possible descending triangle pattern around 79.60. a push lower below could send it towards the 50-days SMA and horizontal support around 79.30. In general, the current sideways movement is expected to continue within the upcoming period.
The EUR/USD pair has been consolidating within a possible bearish flag pattern; capped from the upside by 1.3155-1.3160 resistance, unless we see a breach above this resistance the downside bias remains in favor, for a possible retest of the recent lows around 1.3030. On the other hand steady trading above 1.3160 could clear the way to 1.3250 potential resistance area.
GBP/USD could have formed a short term bottom at ...
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USD-CHF 4H 09-04-2012
The pair is currently preparing to test the very strong down trend in the long term.
In the medium term the price is testing the 0.9219 support level corresponds to the 61.8% fibo.
Sell at this level to target a return to up trend on the 4h chart.
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EUR-AUD 4H 05-04-2012
The pair is trading up channel and is currently testing the sma 100 on the chart of 4H.
The price is very close to medium term support level 1.2613 and 38.2% fibo level at 1.2601.
Buy: 1.2613-1.2625
Target: 1.2870.
Stop-loss: 1.2560
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The Wake-up of Contagion Fears
Huge downside pressure was seen on high yielders through the trading session on renewed fears triggered by abating expectations the FED will inject more cheap money into the system. Pressure was intensified by the downbeat auctions seen from Spain and France Wednesday and Thursday, where we have seen yields rise threatining the recent tentative stabilization in money markets.
The dollar index soared extending yesterday’s gains. The index breached 79.95 resistance level to currently trade around 80.05 on the way towards the major and recent high at 80.72. Stability above 79.95 now shall confirm further upside potential towards the aforementioned swing high.
The Euro looks forceless; dropping more than 300 pips in two days against the greenback. The pair has breached the horizontal ...
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