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Price Is Currently TestingTitle:
USD Softer ahead of Holiday Weekend
The dollar is giving back some of its recent gains as traders cover positions ahead of the holiday weekend and after the market failed to break the 1.25 downside barrier in EUR/USD. Sentiment is relatively stable with global equities trading flat to slightly softer, EU sovereign yield spreads have eased somewhat, and the dollar index is lower and testing the 82.00 figure after making new highs for the current rally. Uncertainty remains high as markets lack clarity on key European issues and barring any new headlines, today's price action may be driven by position squaring ahead of the long weekend.
The Swiss franc was on the move earlier with EUR/CHF rising sharply on speculation of possible fees on SNB deposits. Swiss officials declined to comment and the franc regained ground after the ...
Title:
Negative outlook in EU sends EUR/USD to new 2012 lows
MORNING BRIEFING: Negative outlook in EU sends EUR/USD to new 2012 lows
What’s new:
Asia: Japanese CPI in line with expectations. Risk mixed overnight. EUR/JPY consolidates below 100.
United States: Soft core durables send GDP forecasts down. USD gaining against most peers
Europe: Decent indices, but Euro selling off. Still focus on Greece and the lack of progress.
Rates in Asia and Indices:
EUR/USD 1.2519 1.2561 0.21 %
USD/CHF 0.9567 0.9606 0.16 %
GBP/USD 1.5648 1.5676 -0.00 %
USD/JPY 79.54 79.82 -0.06 %
EUR/CHF 1.2012 1.20375 -0.03 %
EUR/JPY 99.73 100.06 -0.25 %
Dow Jones 12419.63 12539.59 0.26 %
Nasdaq 2512.35 2554.2 ...
Title:
A dead cat bounce?
After a bunch of creepy economic figures starting from the euro zone manufacturing and services numbers which showed the sectors extended contraction last month and confidence among business within germany dropped to 106.9 from 109.4, that was followed by the GDP figure from the U.K which confirmed further contraction as the country’s economy contracted more than expected. While from the U.S; core durable goods orders dropped by 0.6% while markets were expecting a 1.1% expansion.
Although the overall picture remains clearly uncertain, however markets were well supported after being extensively oversold today, rebounding slightly this morning, and currently extending the recovery after the Greek central bank chief said that Greece’s four largest banks are to be recapitalized by an 18 ...
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Technical analysis of the EUR/USD pair on May 23th, 2012
Commentary of the EUR/USD pair :
The pair EUR/USD felt yesterday and has validated the breakout of 1.27, offering a new sell signal.
The pair is currently testing the low of May 18th towards 1.2650.
The price is still moving below a paralell of its bearish channel (ows of March 14th).
All indicators are bearish.
We continue to advise short positions as far as 1.2750 is resistance.
The breakout of 1.2650 will give a new sell signal and open the way towards 1.26.
In case of return above 1.2750, we will then wait the breakout of 1.2850 to advise long positions.
See the previous analysis of the EUR/USD pair of May 22th, 2012
EUR/USD Analysis
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JPY Underperforms Amid Downgrade, Ahead of BoJ
USD stronger today against most of the majors amid higher global equities and higher U.S. treasury yields. A ratings downgrade in Japan, dampened EU Summit expectations and low growth projections in Europe, and slowing inflation in the UK are benefitting the USD. The dollar index rebounded from the 81.00 figure but remains below the double top around the 81.75 level and the dollar is currently strongest against the JPY as UST yields advance. On the data front, the May Richmond Fed manufacturing index (expected to soften to 11 from 14) and April existing home sales (forecast to increase 2.9% m/m to 4.61M) are set for release at the top of the hour.
EUR is weaker against most of the G10 currencies amid growth concerns and low expectations of the upcoming EU Summit. The OECD released update ...
Title:
Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 21/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"Fears of a Greek exit from the euro zone and the negative consequences from that are prevailing"
- Ben Kwong, KGI Asia
European stocks edged lower after Fitch downgraded Greece’s credit rating to ‘CCC’, implying that the country is vulnerable and highly dependent on favourable economic conditions to fulfill its financial obligations.
USD
"If there were scope to do another twist of some type it would be prudent to consider it, especially in the scenario where things are worse and the Fed feels like it needs to move"
- Nathan Sheets, Citigroup Inc.
Fed policymakers might potentially launch another round of Operation Twist rather than a direct asset purchases in case of increased risks or further weakening of the US economy.
GBP
"We must work together to give ...
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Central Banks' to the Rescue?
Central Banks' to the Rescue?
The Bank of England stole the headlines this morning as it delivered its second Inflation Report of the year. Its message was fairly grim: the UK won't regain its 2007 level of output until 2018. The biggest threat to the UK economy right now according to the bank is the impasse in the Eurozone (something the BOE can't control).
The BOE: "blame the Royal Family and the Eurozone"
However, the one thing it can control is QE and interest rates, and it kept the door to more QE firmly open today. It noted that Q1 GDP figures could be revised higher, however a number of "one off" factors like the Queen's Jubilee bank holiday this year could knock 0.5% from GDP. This "holiday" could have a more damaging economic effect than the Royal Wedding, according to the Bank. ...
Title:
USD is Preferred Haven
USD is Preferred Haven
USD remains firm ahead of today's FOMC minutes and amid ongoing EU concerns. UK PM Cameron put the situation in the euro area rather succinctly saying that "it either has to make up or face a potential breakup". The dollar index is continuing its ascent towards mid-January highs after breaking a medium term bear channel. Economic data due out shortly incldes April housing starts which are forecast to gain by 4.7% m/m, building permits which are anticipated to fall by -4.5% m/m, and industrial production which is expected to show growth of 0.6%. The minutes from the April 24-25 FOMC meeting will be released at 1400ET and will provide insight into the whether or not the Fed discussed additional measures.
EUR is nearing the 2012 lows against the USD as the euro ...
Title:
Germany: The Savior Of Europe?
Germany: The Savior Of Europe?
Germany: The Savior Of Europe?
It's official, the German economy is single handed propping up the Eurozone after its economy grew five times more than forecast in the first quarter. Growth expanded by 0.5% on the quarter, pushing the annual growth rate to 1.2%, which is fairly healthy considering how dire the growth outlook is elsewhere in the currency bloc. We know that some large German companies like BMW had their best ever quarter in the first three months of the year, thus there were signs that Germany could do better than expected. But what is surprising is that even though Italy contracted more than expected at 0.8% in the first quarter, the Eurozone managed to avoid a recession and registered flat growth overall between January and March.
Germany ...
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