Previous Analysis Of The Usd/jpy
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Rates: Key support levels broken; new contract highs reached
- A weak US payrolls report pushed global core bonds to new contract highs. The very long end outperformed, as well as the EMU soft core, on the back of Japanese reallocation trades following last week's aggressive BOJ action.
- Currencies: Yen losses remain the eye-catcher; Cable regains major resistance
- Weak US payrolls had only modest impact on EUR/USD, but it was enough to push cable above key 1.5269 resistance (previous support). However, yen weakness remains the eye-catcher with USD/JPY 100 coming ever closer
The Sunrise Headlines
- US Equities started 1% lower on Friday after a disappointing payrolls report, but part of the losses were reversed during the session. The S& ...
Sunrise Market Commentary
Rates: Eyes on central bankers
Core bonds eked out some gains during the US session on the back of weaker US eco data. Today, all eyes will be on central banks. The BoJ already eased policy this morning, but BoE and ECB meetings are still in front of us. No policy changes are expected.
Currencies: BOJ policy change pushes USD/JPY above 95.00 mark.
Poor US data (ADP, services PMI) caused some profit taking on the recent dollar gains. However, the rebound of EUR/USD was far from impressive. This morning, the yen nosedived as the BOJ changed its policy framework. Later today, the currency markets will look out for the ECB press conference
The Sunrise Headlines
US equities dropped on signs that the US economy is weakening. The S&P failed to go for a test of the all ...
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"After rising in the opening two months of the year, the headline PMI dipped in March, largely reflecting faster declines in both output and new orders."
- Markit senior economist Phil Smith
Manufacturing output in Greece tumbled once again in March as new orders shrank, with the impact of the crisis in neighbouring Cyprus yet to take its toll on the local economy, a survey by Markit Economics showed on Monday.
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Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
"European events favor the euro a bit after quite a bit of selloff last week."
- Barclays (based on MarketWatch)
After bouncing off the 200-day SMA and falling as low as 1.2750, the currency pair has returned back to the declining resistance line that has been safeguarding the ...
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The data indicate that the Eurozone economy has remained stuck in recession in the first quarter."
- Martin Van Vliet, senior euro-area economist at ING Groep NV
French consumers spending dropped again in February, however, at a slower pace than in the previous month, mainly due to a fall in textile-leather purchases, the INSEE official statistics office said Friday. Households' expenditure on goods, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity, dropped by 0.2% on a monthly basis in February, after a revised 0.8% drop a month earlier.
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Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
"Investors will see some risk and there are also some issues with Italy, so the euro is likely to head toward $1.25."
- a trader at a ...
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The harsh and long winter hurt Germany’s labour market, but the increase in unemployment by 13,000 in March will probably remain a temporary blip."
- Christian Schulz, senior economist at Berenberg Bank
Retail sales in the Europe’s largest economy unexpectedly rose for a second month in February, adding to signs the domestic economy is returning to growth. A report by the Federal Statistics Office showed that German retail sales gained 0.4% from January, when they surged a revised 3.0%.
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Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
"The euro appears to be stabilising just for now, but European bond markets are clearly showing a rather different picture."
- Sumitomo Mitsui Bank (based on CNBC)
Support at 1.2765/60 holds for now, ...
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"But that is not having a lasting effect on consumer sentiment in Germany."
- Market research group GfK
Consumer morale in Europe’s largest economy stalled in April, amid fears of a possible resurgence of the Eurozone crisis, market research group GfK said Wednesday. A gauge of consumer confidence held steady at 5.9 going into April, meeting analysts’ expectations.
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Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
"Our technical analyst highlights that a break of the $1.2806 technical support level opens the way for a decline to $1.2737."
- BNP Paribas (based on CNBC)
After overcoming a short period of hesitation near 1.2815 the pair continued the decline and encountered 1.2774/65, which appears to be a stronger support line than the ...
SNB maintains policy stance; Norway Central Bank cuts Rate Path Outlook; Spain special bond sale come in below analysts' target range
Notes/Observations
New Zealand central bank leaves Cash Rate unchanged (as expected) but cuts GDP outlook; says strong Kiwi currency is a significant concern
South Korea Central Bank (BOK) leaves 7-Day Repo Rate unchanged at 2.75% (as expected but was not unanimous); Analysts see rate cut ahead as economy stagnates
Australia Feb Employment data registers highest monthly increase in a decade; CPI hits 5-month high; Markets respond by re-pricing expectations of another RBA easing, sending Australian equities down by 1%.
Japan lower house lawmakers endorse Kuroda as next BoJ Gov; Also approve Nakaso and Iwata as BoJ Dep Govs, as expected; Upper House vote ...
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"Business surveys suggest a contraction in January."
- Pierre-Olivier Beffy, chief economist at Exane BNP Paribas
The industrial output in Europe’s second largest economy fell significantly in the beginning of 2013, adding to fears that French economy teetered on the brink of its third recession in four years. Output from factories, mines, utilities and the construction industry tumbled 1.2% from December, when it expanded by 0.9%, posting the sharpest decline since September.
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Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
"The market has run a long way in terms of dollar strength. We’re probably mostly in a phase of consolidations, with one exception in short sterling, which still attracts as a bearish trade on Europe."
- Societe ...
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The deteriorating picture in the periphery is also a concern."
- Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit
Activity of the service sector in the 17-nation currency bloc contracted further in February, however, at a slower pace than previously, according to the Markit Economics. The Purchasing Managers' Composite Index stood at a revised 47.9 last month, up from the initial reading of 47.3, but still well below compared to 48.6 in January and further away from the break-even mark of 50.
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Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
"The rally in Spanish bond yields showed the market is feeling a little bit more confident with the situation in Europe."
- Citigroup (based on Bloomberg)
EUR/USD noticeably appreciated in the last ...