ForexTribe is a french website mainly created to share graphic analysis and trade ideas on the Forex Forum.
Pattern On The Hourly ChartTitle:
Another Day, Another New Correction Low For EUR/USD
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Fixed Income: Hunt for yield
- Following horrible French and German PMI readings, core bonds set new highs. The German 10-yr yield set an all time low at 1.35% and this initiated for the first time a “hunt for yield” trade into Belgian, Austrian and French bonds. The trade was most visible at the longer end of the curve, resulting in a bull flattening.
- Currencies: Another day, another new correction low for EUR/USD
- On Thursday, the decline of EUR/USD was extended. However, given the flood of negative news, the damage could have been worse. EUR/GBP struggles to hold above the 0.8000 barrier. Today, the calendar is thin. However, one can expect investors to stay cautious going into a long weekend. This is no help for the euro
The Sunrise ...
Title:
Major Currency Cross Rates Little Changed Ahead Of The Payrolls
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Fixed Income ECB can't move global bonds
- Global core bonds ended the session unchanged, as initial disappointment that the ECB wasn't more dovish dissipated fast. Today's payrolls are key and might decide whether the 6-week rally is over or has one more leg.
Currencies: Major currency cross rates little changed ahead of the payrolls
- EUR/USD gained temporarily during the ECB press conference as Draghi was less dovish than some in the market had expected. However, the move was technically insignificant as sentiment on risk remained fragile. Today, the payrolls are the key factor for (currency) trading. Investors might stay cautions on the euro to avoid this weekend's political event risk.
The Sunrise Headlines
- US Equities dropped for a ...
Title:
Awful EMU PMI Data Hit The Euro
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Fixed Income: German yields set record lows
- Depressing April PMI's and unemployment data in the EMU set the tone for a risk off session. Core bonds surged higher and the German Bund future reached a new record high. In the US session, US equities rebounded and triggered profit taking in US treasuries. German bonds stayed near the highs however.
- Currencies: Awful EMU PMI data hit the euro
- The focus in currency trading shifted from the US to Europe. On Tuesday, EUR/USD declined due to dollar strength in the wake of the ISM release. On Wednesday, an awful set of EMU data triggered a next selling wave. EUR/GBP continues to set new lows, too. We doubt that the Draghi press conference will be able to change the course of events
The Sunrise ...
Title:
EUR/USD Ignored The S&P Downgrade Of Spain
Sunrise Market Commentary : 30/04/2012
- Fixed Income: new highs for Bund Future (141.38) and US Note Future (132-17)
- Core bonds set new contract highs on Friday after the Spanish rating downgrade. However, sentiment changed in the European session and led to return action. Today, trading will be thin ahead of tomorrow's Labour Day Holiday in most of Europe. Main items this week will be the ECB meeting (Thursday) and the US payrolls (Friday).
- Currencies: EUR/USD ignored the S&P downgrade of Spain.
- On Friday morning, the focus on the European markets was on the S&P downgrade of Spain. However, the reaction developed in a very orderly way. EUR/USD reversed the early losses and the dollar lost further ground after the weaker than expected US GDP. USD/JPY is testing the key ...
Title:
Euro Slightly Higher As Tensions Ease
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Fixed Income: Core bonds hit by profit taking, non-core bonds gain
- Risk aversion ebbed away following Monday's rout, leading to some modest profit taking in core bonds. Non-core bonds did well and yield spreads versus Germany narrowed. Spain and the Netherlands outperformed yesterday. Investors will stay largely sideways today, ahead of this evening's FOMC statement and press conference of Mr. Bernanke.
- Currencies: Euro slightly higher as tensions ease
- On Tuesday, most markets saw a setback on Monday's sharp sell-off in risky assets. In this move, EUR/USD returned to the 1.32 area, but a technically significant break didn't occur. EUR/GBP came near the 0.8143 August 2010 low. Today, the focus of currency trading will be on the Fed.
The ...
Title:
EUR/USD Showed Only Limited Losses Even As Risky Assets Were Sold
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Fixed Income: the only way was up
- Political tensions in the Netherlands and France in combination with weak PMI data set the tone for a risk off environment in which especially German bonds profited. The Bund set a new contract high and the German 10-yr yield set a minor record low (1.63%). The Dutch spread added 18 bps (78 bps) and is well underway to a the all time high (86 bps).
- Currencies: EUR/USD showed only limited losses even as risky assets were sold
- On Monday, EUR/USD ceded ground as negative political and economic headlines from Europe weighed on global market sentiment. However, investors were also cautious on the dollar ahead of tomorrow's Fed decision. Sterling was again an outperformer as EUR/GBP reached a new correction low.
...
Title:
EUR/USD Fails To Take Out First Resistance At 1.3213
Sunrise Market Commentary
Fixed Income: Political developments supportive for core EMU bonds
Political developments over the weekend are supportive for global core bonds, but strong technical resistance (contract high; inverted channel) come into play. In France, presidential candidate Hollande beat current president Sarkozy in the 1st round of the French election and in the Netherlands, the government fell as Dutch budget talks collapsed.
Currencies: EUR/USD fails to take out first resistance at 1.3213
On Friday, the euro was rather well bid. EUR/USD tested the 1.3213 resistance but failed to sustain above this level. EUR/GBP stayed below the 0.8222 previous range bottom, confirming the break of earlier last week. Cautious sentiment on risk will probably cap the topside ...
Title:
Speculation on EURCHF Jump
Forex News and Events:
There is plenty of speculation about the EURCHF spike around 20.00est yesterday. The sudden move to 1.2035 from 1.2015 has fueled speculation that the SNB was active once again in the FX markets. At this point there is little supporting evidence that what we saw was an official intervention rather than panicky traders hearing footsteps. The SNB, so far, has been very transparent regarding their FX policy. Last Thursday’s trading action had the SNB wholly entering the market on EBS in their own name. In addition, SNBs Jordon quickly issued a discussion memo (see below) outlining in very lucid details the events of the day. The SNB saw no advantage of hiding being classics convoluted Central bank language. There are some significant credibility issues and policy ...
Title:
Traders Watching Spanish Yields Nervously
Forex News and Events:
Today traders will be watching development in Europe as Spanish yields continue to rise and investors remain skeptical that Prime Minister Rajoy can bring the nations deficit under control. Rajoy was quoted as saying “Spain is in an emergency situation.” Yields on Spanish 10 year sovereign debt rose to 5.79%. In addition, there is regional contagion worries as concerns are also spilling over into Italian debt (5yr +17bps today). And despite strong rhetoric, investors have not ruled out Spain joining Greece, Portugal and Ireland in seeking an international bailout. No helping to ease concern, Spanish economic minister Guindo declined to rule out a possible need for a rescue. Although he did go on to mention that Spain had covered almost 50% of 2012 financing needs. ...
|