ForexTribe is a french website mainly created to share graphic analysis and trade ideas on the Forex Forum.
Parity The Parity JustTitle:
Asia Cannot Escape Europe And The Aussie Cannot Escape Swan's Budget
Growth fears stemming from Europe are once again weighing on investor sentiment, with the dollar the biggest loser in the FX market and equity markets falling throughout the session. This time it was comments from the radical leader of the Greek leftwing party that stirred the market.
The leader of the Syriza party, which came second in the weekend's election, Alexis Tsipras demanded an end to the austerity program and thereby the reversal of the fiscal and structure reforms that have allowed Greece to cut its budget deficit. This is fuelling speculation of a Greek exit from the euro, whilst this may not be a bad thing in the long-term it would likely result in a lot of market volatility and panic as it would be unprecedented territory, and thus no one is sure how it would play out.
...
Title:
U.S. Stocks Fall As Greek Political Tension Mount
U.S. Stocks slipped at the open on Tuesday, driving the Standard & Poor`s 500 Index to its lowest level in almost a month, as Greece Battles to put up a government amid increasing odds the nation could face default on its debt next month.
Greece`s pro-bailout conservative party headed by Antonis Samaras late Monday failed to forge a coalition government following weekend election, giving the opportunity to the anti-austerity parity headed by Alexis Tsipras to step up with a new government.
The hard-Left Syriza party now has the chance to take the wheel, which could be opposed by the International Monetary Fund and European Union. The coalition government has only 30 days to save the situation, as Greece faces the odds of defaulting on its debt.
If truth be told, Greek default risk in on ...
Title:
Political Disruptions Weigh on Risk Sentiment
USD is trading firmly against the majors (except the JPY) with the Dollar Index advancing to approach the pivotal 80.00 level. With little economic data due out today, the market's focus remains on political developments in Europe and the elevated uncertainty is seeing traders shift away from risky assets and into safe havens. US Treasury yields are lower with the 10-year yield currently around 1.84% and US equities are lower with the DJIA and S&P 500 currently down by -0.60% and -0.68% respectively. The dollar is strongest against the commodity currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD) amid growth concerns and significant technical declines in commodities. Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading below a long term trendline support which began at the lows in Oct. 2008 and crude oil is currently below its 200- ...
Title:
Anti-Austerity Sentiment Sends Risk Assets Tumbling
Risk is collapsing as anti-austerity political parties take hold in Europe. Former French PM Sarkozy and mainstream pro-European parties in Greece have felt the force of the anti-austerity backlash that is seeping through Europe.
Fancois Hollande is the leader of the French Solcialist party and the new French Prime Minister after the final round of French elections over the weekend put the socialist party into the top job for the first time since 1988. Investors acutely aware of the new leader's distain for austerity measures and some elements of the EU's new fiscal treaty. Mr Hollande has vowed not to ratify the new EU treaty unless new growth promoting measures are added, which is going to significantly draw-out the process of fiscal integration, if not stop it altogether.
In Athens, ...
Title:
New European Politics, New Euro Low
The new Euro-zone politics will dominate the first part of the week and, in all probability, the week as a whole. The Euro-zone is heading for catastrophe if policies are unchanged and electorates are relentless in demanding change as governments are ousted across Europe. Increased political risk will result in a weaker Euro. Any shift in strategy will, initially at least, mean a weaker Euro. The critical EUR/USD 1.30 support zone could provide a stern test for bears, but the Euro is likely to break lower and threaten 2012 lows.
Confirmation of Hollande’s victory in France marks the end of the Merkel-Sarkozy dominance at the political heart of Europe. In reality, Germany was dominating the agenda, certainly in the key crisis period at the end of 2011, but the illusion of a key alliance ...
Title:
US Non-Farm Payroll Disappoints; USD Directionless, AUD Slides and JPY Gains
April's unemployment rate eased to 8.1%, but it was a mainly because of people leaving the workforce.
The Non-Farm Payroll data came out 115K, disappointing a 173K forecast which the market has been scaling back throughout the week. March data was revised from 120K to 154K. Although the data came out very weak, the market seems to have been prepared for this disappointment, and the reaction in the currency market was not clear at first.
Source for the charts from the Bureau of Labor Statistics: http://www.bls.gov/home.htm
2 straight months of weak employment data adds to probability of QE. This could be a reason the USD is being pressured, although risk aversion should boost the USD.So USD direction is not clear.
The clearer reaction is coming from the commodity currencies like the AUD ...
Title:
Employment: Cyclical Gain, Structural Problems Persist
April employment rose 115,000, with the unemployment rate down to 8.1 percent, driven by a drop in the labor force participation rate. With subpar job gains, structural issues further complicate the outlook.
Employment Growth: Subpar Consistent with Moderate Growth
Employment was up 115,000 in April, with gains in many sectors, e.g., manufacturing, education and health and business services, as illustrated in the top graph. Weakness in construction and government did contribute to the smaller-than-expected gain, but the payback for favorable seasonal adjustment factors earlier this year appears to have affected the data. Over the past three months, the average gain in jobs has been 176,000, with private sector jobs averaging 183,000. Manufacturing gains over the past three months have ...
Title:
NFP Fever Heats Up
The markets have managed to shrug off some fairly dismal services sector PMI data from the Eurozone, as the US non-farm payrolls data comes into focus. Arguably the most important economic data release of the month, the markets expect 160k but our prop model suggests a slightly weaker reading of 136k. Labour market data in April was fairly mixed but the overall bias was to the downside with the 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims rising more than20k over the month.
Payrolls reports have the power to set the tone for how markets, and the dollar in particular, trade for the rest of the month. The weaker March NFP report stopped the rally in USDJPY in its tracks, for example. So what can we expect from today's report? Essentially the magic number is 200k – this is the amount of ...
Title:
Euro Loses Ground on Recession Fears
Euro is losing ground today as recession fears once again come into focus. Disappointing economic data in the eurozone, as well as a growing gap between Germany and the peripherals, are weighing on the euro. Additionally, it’s not helping risk appetite that the data coming out of the United States has turned out to be disappointing as well.
In the eurozone, the news continues to worsen. The unemployment rate in the 17-nation currency region is up to 10.9%. However, it is a matter of concern to many that there is a growing gap between the employment rate in Germany (6.8%), and the unemployment rate in eurozone peripheral countries, like Spain, Portugal, and Italy. Indeed, in Spain, the unemployment rate is at 24.1%. This huge disparity only highlights the imbalances, and underscores ...
|