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Parity The Parity ContinuesTitle:
Greece retains focus; Aussie continues to weaken
Forex Morning Briefing : Greece retains focus; Aussie continues to weaken
What’s new:
Asia: Asian and US equities remain in negative territory
Greece: Still unable to form a coalition government
Spain: Government expected to unveil banks’ plans on Friday
Forex: AUD/USD approaching parity, fresh 2012 lows
Forex: JPY still attracting support as carry trades unwind
Rates in Asia and Indices:
EUR/USD 1.2965 1.3008 -0.15 %
USD/CHF 0.9234 0.9263 -0.15 %
GBP/USD 1.6129 1.6163 -0.13 %
USD/JPY 79.72 79.94 0.10 %
EUR/CHF 1.2010 1.2013 0.00 %
EUR/JPY 103.4 103.94 0.27 %
Dow Jones 12810.39 13000.73 -0.58 %
Nasdaq 2587.53 ...
Title:
Political Disruptions Weigh on Risk Sentiment
USD is trading firmly against the majors (except the JPY) with the Dollar Index advancing to approach the pivotal 80.00 level. With little economic data due out today, the market's focus remains on political developments in Europe and the elevated uncertainty is seeing traders shift away from risky assets and into safe havens. US Treasury yields are lower with the 10-year yield currently around 1.84% and US equities are lower with the DJIA and S&P 500 currently down by -0.60% and -0.68% respectively. The dollar is strongest against the commodity currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD) amid growth concerns and significant technical declines in commodities. Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading below a long term trendline support which began at the lows in Oct. 2008 and crude oil is currently below its 200- ...
Title:
Employment: Cyclical Gain, Structural Problems Persist
April employment rose 115,000, with the unemployment rate down to 8.1 percent, driven by a drop in the labor force participation rate. With subpar job gains, structural issues further complicate the outlook.
Employment Growth: Subpar Consistent with Moderate Growth
Employment was up 115,000 in April, with gains in many sectors, e.g., manufacturing, education and health and business services, as illustrated in the top graph. Weakness in construction and government did contribute to the smaller-than-expected gain, but the payback for favorable seasonal adjustment factors earlier this year appears to have affected the data. Over the past three months, the average gain in jobs has been 176,000, with private sector jobs averaging 183,000. Manufacturing gains over the past three months have ...
Title:
Technical analysis of the AUD/USD parity on May 4th, 2012
Commentary of the AUD/USD parity:
The pair AUD/USD has validated yesterday the breakout of 1.03, offering a new sell signal.
The pair continues to move on a parallel to its bearish channel (purple lines).
All indicators are bearish.
We continue to advise short positions as far as 1.0350 is resistance.
The breakout of 1.0250 will give a new sell signal and open the way towards 1.02.
In case of return above 1.0350, we will wait the breakout of 1.04 to advise long positons.
See the previous analysis of the AUD/USD parity of May 3rd, 2012
AUD/USD Analysis
Title:
Euro Loses Ground on Recession Fears
Euro is losing ground today as recession fears once again come into focus. Disappointing economic data in the eurozone, as well as a growing gap between Germany and the peripherals, are weighing on the euro. Additionally, it’s not helping risk appetite that the data coming out of the United States has turned out to be disappointing as well.
In the eurozone, the news continues to worsen. The unemployment rate in the 17-nation currency region is up to 10.9%. However, it is a matter of concern to many that there is a growing gap between the employment rate in Germany (6.8%), and the unemployment rate in eurozone peripheral countries, like Spain, Portugal, and Italy. Indeed, in Spain, the unemployment rate is at 24.1%. This huge disparity only highlights the imbalances, and underscores ...
Title:
Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 30/04/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"Once we hit the 6.5 per cent mark , the alarm bells will go off loudly in Brussels and more rhetoric will be coming from the European Central Bank"
- Adrian Miller, a global markets strategist at GMP
The rating agency Standard & Poor’s has downgraded Spain’s credit rating by two notches to BBB-plus with a negative outlook from A, citing expectations the government finances will deteriorate.
USD
"While the economy continued to grow in the first quarter, the expansion remains modest in pace and subpar from a historical perspective"
- Jim Baird, chief investment strategist at Plante Moran Financial Advisors
The U.S. economy grew at a slower pace than forecast in the first quarter as businesses cut on investment. Gross domestic product increased at a 2.2 per cent ...
Title:
Technical analysis of the AUD/USD parity on April 30th, 2012
Commentary of the AUD/USD parity:
The pair AUD/USD has validated last friday the breakout of 1.04, offering a buy signal.
The pair just faked the breakout of 1.0450.
All indicators are now bullish.
We continues to advise long positions as far as 1.04 is support.
The breakout of 1.0450 will give a new buy signal and open the way towards 1.05.
In case of return below 1.04, we will wait the breakout of 1.0350 to advise short positions.
See the previous analysis of the AUD/USD parity of April 26th, 2012
AUD/USD Analysis
Title:
Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 27/04/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
Spain's credit rating was lowered by Standard & Poor's for a second time in 2012 on enduring worries the nation will have to apply additional fiscal backing to lenders as the economy shrinks. S&P cut its long term grade for Spain from A to BBB+ adding a negative outlook. Country's short term rating was lowered from A-1 to A-2, S&P agency reported on Thursday.
USD
Crude oil price declined from almost 4-week high in New York trade after S&P ratings agency cut Spain's sovereign credit rating, boosting concerns that further recession in Europe may halt demand for crude. Oil to be delivered in June lost USD 0.61, reaching USD 103.94 a barrel. June Brent oil gave up USD 0.49 and traded at USD 119.43 a barrel.
GBP
Today the Great Britain Pound extended its gains ...
Title:
Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 26/04/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
Deutsche Bank, the German biggest lender posted a 33% drop in its first quarter profit, citing debt crisis as a negative force that curbed trading. Net income declined to EUR 1.38 billion (USD 1.82 billion) compared to EUR 2.06 billion in the same period last year. Economists questioned by Bloomberg expected the profit to decrease less to EUR 1.56 billion. Deutsche Bank shares have added 16% this year.
USD
Crude oil fluctuated close to a one-week record high as Fed claimed they expect the economic growth to advance, encouraging the speculation that fuel demand will increase. Moreover Iran announced it may stop its nuclear expansion. June crude traded at USD 104.07 a barrel after climbing USD 0.57 yesterday. Brent oil to be delivered in June traded at USD 119 a ...
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