Parity On September 20th

Talk of a Greek exit from the EMU may have gone overboard. The new Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos has promised to carry out all of Greece's obligations to receive European bailout funds. This may help to restore fragile investor confidence in the EUR. Economic News EUR - Greek Exit from EMU Not Likely The present coalition in Greece has confirmed its intention to implement the most recent EUR 130 Bn European bailout for the country. This will be done prior to new elections. This is the type of promise investors need to help add stability to the EUR. From all the market events that have occurred over the past week, two important developments have occurred; Greece could default on its bonds and the indebted country could theoretically leave the EMU. However, with the new ...

Commentary of the AUD/USD parity: The pair AUD/USD faked yesterday the breakout of 1.02. The pair is now back on 1.03 as resistance. Indicators stay globaly bearish. We maintain to trade only short positions as far as 1.03 is resistance. The breakout of 1.02 will give a new sell signal and open the way towards 1.01. However, if 1.03 is broken, we will wait the breakout of 1.04 to advise long positions. See the previous analysis of the AUD/USD parity of September 20th, 2011

Commentary of the AUD/USD parity: The pair AUD/USD is currently moving on the support at 1.02. All indicators are bearish. We maintain to trade only short positions as far as 1.03 is resistance. The breakout of 1.02 will give a new sell signal and open the way towards 1.01. However, if 1.03 is broken, we will wait the breakout of 1.04 to advise long positions. See the previous analysis of the AUD/USD parity of September 19th, 2011

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK United States * Tuesday's release of the September 21st FOMC meeting minutes showed broad based support for using quantitative easing to stimulate growth if inflation remains subdued and the unemployment rate fails to decline. It is less clear whether or not a consensus had been established at the September meeting for providing additional stimulus as soon as November * Ongoing softness in the September data, including today's weak CPI report, have increased the chances of action in November * Also, financial market moves have put additional pressure on the Fed to act in November * The most likely outcome will be the announcement of incremental Treasury purchases, starting with an initial move in November between $250 billion and $350 billion ...

Another strangely quiet day in the FX markets so far. With not much to discuss, markets have been actively chattering about the WSJ article which claimed that the Fed will be pulling back on the “shock and awe” asset purchasing and instead will turn toward smaller, more targeted purchases. The overarching effect on the market will be a radical adjustment to quantitative easing (QE2) expectations and should give the USD a temporary boost to the upside. Of course, any movement for the greenback depends heavily on economic data and a further erosion in fundamentals will rapidity have the Fed singing a much different tune. USD bulls were able to halt selling during the Asian session and USD-selling in European session is tentative at best. The other central bank under the QE microscope due ...

Commentary of the XAU/USD parity: The parity is currently testing a pullback on 1275. Indicators stay globaly bullish. We maintain to trade only long positions as far as 1275 is support. The next resistance should be towards 1300. However, if 1275 is broken, we will stay neutral and we will wait a return above this level to trade again long positions. See the previous analysis of the XAU/USD parity of September 20th, 2010

Commentary of the AUD/USD parity: The parity continues its bullish movement above its bullish slant starting from August 25th. Last highest are currently tested. Indicators stay globaly bullish. We maintain to trade only long positions as far as 0.94 is support or as long as the slant is giving support. The breakout of 0.95 will give a new buy signal. See the previous analysis of the AUD/USD parity of September 20th, 2010

Commentary of the EUR/CHF parity: The parity is currently testing its former resistance at 1.3150 as support. (highest of August 30th and september 2nd). Inidcators are mixed. We stay neutral on the parity between 1.3150 and 1.3250. We advise to wait an exit of this range to take position: - Long if 1.3250 is broken - Short if 1.3150 is broken See the previous analysis of the EUR/CHF parity of September 20th, 2010

Commentary of the EUR/GBP parity: The parity validate a breakout of the resistance at 0.84, offering a new buy signal. All indicators are bullish. We maintain to trade only long positions as far as 0.84 is support. The breakout of 0.8450 will give a new buy signal. The next resistance is at 0.85. See the previous analysis of the EUR/GBP parity of September 20th, 2010