Parity On October 5th

Forex News and Events: The S&P GSCI Index reversed its 2011 gains in the last six consecutive trading sessions. As a matter of fact, the index tracking 24 commodities broke down 7.6% from a high of 684.15 on April 30th to a more than four-month low low of 634.25 during yesterday’s trade session. This downturn in commodity prices can be explained on the one hand by headlines from the Euro area, as markets seem to be pricing in a second round of elections in Greece as well as a probable EU exit. On the other hand, the marked slowdown of commodity-intensive economies such as China -see Newsletter May 14- pushed prices lower in light of atrophied demand and lower infrastructure investments. From the foreign exchange perspective, the Australian dollar having experienced a 34% appreciation ...

Commentary of the AUD/USD parity: The pair AUD/USD found resistance yesterday on 1.35. The pair just validated a return below 1.04. Indicators stay globaly bullish. We maintain to trade only long positions as far as 1.0350 is support. A return above 1.04 will comfort our bullish feeling. The breakout of 1.05 and 1.06 will both give a new buy signal. In case of return below 1.0350, we will wait the breakout of 1.02 to advise short positions. See the previous analysis of the AUD/USD parity of October 25th, 2011 AUD/USD Analysis

Commentary of the AUD/USD parity: The pair AUD/USD just validated the breakout of 1.04, offering a new buy signal. The pair is currently testing the next resistance at 1.05. All indicators are bullish. We maintain to trade only long positions as far as 1.0350 is support. The breakout of 1.05 and 1.06 will both give a new buy signal. In case of return below 1.0350, we will wait the breakout of 1.02 to advise short positions. See the previous analysis of the AUD/USD parity of October 24th, 2011 AUD/USD Analysis

Commentary of the AUD/USD parity: The pair AUD/USD just validated a return above 0.96 after have found support on 0.94 at its lowest. The pair is back into its long term bearish channel (purple lines). All indicators are now bullish. We stay neutral on the pair between 0.96 and 0.98. We advise to wait an exit of this range to take position: - Long if 0.98 is broken. The breakout of 0.99 will give a new buy signal - Short if 0.96 is broken. The breakout of 0.95 will give a new sell signal. See the previous analysis of the AUD/USD parity of October 5th, 2011 AUD/USD Analysis

Commentary of the AUD/USD parity: The pair AUD/USD made a lows yesterday on the support at 0.94. Then, the pair rebounded on 0.96 to make a pullback on 0.95 as support. The pair continues to move below the lower band of its long term bullish channel (purple line). All indicators are bearish. We maintain to trade only short positions as far as 0.96 is resistance. A return below 0.95 will comfort our bearish feeling. The breakout of 0.94 will give a new sell signal and open the way towards 0.93. In case of return above 0.96, we will wait the breakout of 0.98 to advise long positions. See the previous analysis of the AUD/USD parity of October 4th, 2011 AUD/USD Analysis

The Canadian dollar slumped today, extending its decline from the highest level in this month, as crude oil, the main nation’s export, declined and the wholesale sales declined, reducing the appeal of the Canadian currency. January delivery for crude oil gained 0.8 percent to $88.75 per barrel and then dropped 0.9 percent to $87.26. Oil declined on the concerns that the financial crisis in Europe would spread. The wholesale sales in Canada remained unchanged at $44.9 billion in October, while they were expected to rise by 0.8 percent after advancing 0.7 percent in September. On December 15th the Canadian currency reached parity with the US dollar, touching the highest level this month. Unfortunately for the loonie, as the Canadian currency is often called, it tends to drop after reaching ...

Weekly Market Commentary Overview A quieter week in thin (and cold) conditions even though Treasury yields spiralled higher. While the Swiss National Bank kept rates on hold at 0.25% at their quarterly meeting because the Swiss franc hit new records against the Euro at CHF 1.2720 and Sterling 1.4900, ten-year Conf touched 1.984%, its highest since April. Likewise ten-year JGB's at 1.300% (from a low at 0.827% in October), highest since June. Keeping pace US ten-year reached 3.567% and Brazil 2018 2.911% from a record low at 1.878% early November. Peripheral Eurozone spreads over Germany unchanged from last week, under mid-November's records, but still very much under pressure and absolute interest rate levels at some of their highest ever because benchmark ten-year Bund yields backed up ...

The Week in Review Highlights * Is it time to panic yet? * Eurozone crisis is only just beginning * Fears of China tightening have become a reality * Post QE2 - Has the Fed got it all wrong? * Key data and events to watch next week Is it time to panic yet? North Korea is firing artillery shells at South Korea, the Irish banking system is on the verge of collapse, with fears of broader contagion steadily increasing, China is pursuing additional credit restraint, and the Fed is undertaking QE2 in last ditch effort to salvage the US recovery. If ever there were a time to hit the panic button, now would seem to be it. While we certainly think the environment is ripe for a major risk sell-off (USD, CHF, JPY, gold higher/EUR, GBP, AUD, stocks, commodities lower), we think ...

Commentary of the AUD/USD parity: The pair is currently testing a pullback on 0.99 as support. Indicators are globaly bullish. We maintain to trade only long positions as far as 0.9875 is support. The breakout of 1.0 will give a new buy signal. See the previous analysis of the AUD/USD parity of October 25th, 2010