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Parity Is Currently TestingTitle:
Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 21/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"Fears of a Greek exit from the euro zone and the negative consequences from that are prevailing"
- Ben Kwong, KGI Asia
European stocks edged lower after Fitch downgraded Greece’s credit rating to ‘CCC’, implying that the country is vulnerable and highly dependent on favourable economic conditions to fulfill its financial obligations.
USD
"If there were scope to do another twist of some type it would be prudent to consider it, especially in the scenario where things are worse and the Fed feels like it needs to move"
- Nathan Sheets, Citigroup Inc.
Fed policymakers might potentially launch another round of Operation Twist rather than a direct asset purchases in case of increased risks or further weakening of the US economy.
GBP
"We must work together to give ...
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Central Banks' to the Rescue?
Central Banks' to the Rescue?
The Bank of England stole the headlines this morning as it delivered its second Inflation Report of the year. Its message was fairly grim: the UK won't regain its 2007 level of output until 2018. The biggest threat to the UK economy right now according to the bank is the impasse in the Eurozone (something the BOE can't control).
The BOE: "blame the Royal Family and the Eurozone"
However, the one thing it can control is QE and interest rates, and it kept the door to more QE firmly open today. It noted that Q1 GDP figures could be revised higher, however a number of "one off" factors like the Queen's Jubilee bank holiday this year could knock 0.5% from GDP. This "holiday" could have a more damaging economic effect than the Royal Wedding, according to the Bank. ...
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Technical analysis of the AUD/USD parity on May 15th, 2012
Commentary of the AUD/USD parity:
The pair AUD/USD has continued its bearish movement and the breakout of the support at 1.0 gave us a new sell signal.
Currently, the pair is testing a pullback on this leve.
All indicators are bearish.
The pair continues to move into its bearish channel (purple lines) and seems to move into a falling wedge (reversal pattern).
We continue to advise short positions as far as 1.01 is resistance.
The breakout of 0.99 will give a new sell signal and open the way towards 0.98.
In case of return above 1.01, we will wait the breakout of 1.0150 to advise long positons.
See the previous analysis of the AUD/USD parity of May 14th, 2012
AUD/USD Analysis
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Technical analysis of the AUD/USD parity on May 14th, 2012
Commentary of the AUD/USD parity:
The pair AUD/USD continues its bearish movement and is currently testing the support at 1.0.
The pair is still moving into its bearish channel (purple lines).
All indicators are bearish.
We continue to advise short positions as far as 1.0125 is resistance.
The breakout of 1.00 will give a new sell signal and open the way towards 0.99.
In case of return above 1.0125, we will wait the breakout of 1.0223 to advise long positons.
See the previous analysis of the AUD/USD parity of May 11th, 2012
AUD/USD Analysis
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USD Softer as Sentiment Stabilizes
USD Softer as Sentiment Stabilizes
USD is mostly softer as sentiment stabilizes and amid slightly weaker US economic data. Weekly initial jobless claims dropped by 1k to 367k (cons. 368k) from an upwardly revised 368k (prior 365k). The 4-week moving average in initial claims fell for the first time in 5 weeks with a drop of -5.3k indicating marginal improvement in labor. The March trade balance showed a wider than expected deficit of -$51.8B (cons. -50.0B, prior -45.4B) as imports jumped 5.2% – the largest increase in over a year. European bourses are currently trading in positive territory, US stock futures are suggesting upside at the open, and UST yields are higher across the curve indicating a better risk environment today. The dollar index is lower and testing the 80.00 figure as ...
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Political Disruptions Weigh on Risk Sentiment
USD is trading firmly against the majors (except the JPY) with the Dollar Index advancing to approach the pivotal 80.00 level. With little economic data due out today, the market's focus remains on political developments in Europe and the elevated uncertainty is seeing traders shift away from risky assets and into safe havens. US Treasury yields are lower with the 10-year yield currently around 1.84% and US equities are lower with the DJIA and S&P 500 currently down by -0.60% and -0.68% respectively. The dollar is strongest against the commodity currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD) amid growth concerns and significant technical declines in commodities. Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading below a long term trendline support which began at the lows in Oct. 2008 and crude oil is currently below its 200- ...
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Technical analysis of the AUD/USD parity on May 7th, 2012
Commentary of the AUD/USD parity:
The pair AUD/USD has validated on friday the breakout of 1.0250 and 1.02, offering both a new sell signal.
The pair is currently testing the next support at 1.0150 and seems to make a false breakout of this level.
All indicators are bearish.
The pair is also testing the upper band of its bearish channel (purple lines).
We continue to advise short positions as far as 1.0250 is resistance.
The breakout of 1.0150 will give a new sell signal and open the way towards 1.01.
In case of return above 1.0250, we will wait the breakout of 1.03 to advise long positons.
See the previous analysis of the AUD/USD parity of May 4th, 2012
AUD/USD Analysis
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Technical analysis of the AUD/USD parity on May 3rd, 2012
Commentary of the AUD/USD parity:
The pair AUD/USD is moving above a parallel to its bearish channel (purple lines) and is currently testing the support at 1.03.
Indicators are globaly bearish.
We continue to advise short positions as far as 1.0350 is resistance.
The breakout of 1.03 will give a new sell signal and open the way towards 1.0250.
In case of return above 1.0350, we will wait the breakout of 1.04 to advise long positons.
See the previous analysis of the AUD/USD parity of May 2nd, 2012
AUD/USD Analysis
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USD, JPY Gain Amid Political Uncertainty, Soft PMI's
USD is higher after rising political uncertainty in Europe and disappointing PMI's sent risk sharply lower. European equities are broadly and significantly lower with most of the major indices down well over -2%, Asian markets finished in the red, and U.S. stock futures are currently down about -1%. The dollar index is rebounding after last week's decline and is approaching the base of the daily cloud and Tenkan line which converge around the 79.65 level. The buck is stronger against all of the G10 currencies with the expection of the yen which is also being support on risk aversion flows. There are no economic data releases of note out of the US today.
EUR weaker amid increasing political uncertainty, specifically in Netherlands and France. The failure of Dutch austerity talks suggest ...
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