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Parity Continues To MoveTitle:
Technical analysis of the AUD/USD parity on May 22th, 2012
Commentary of the AUD/USD parity:
The pair AUD/USD has validated yesterday a return above 0.99 and is currently moving just above this level.
The pair continues to move on the lower band of its bearish channel (purple lines).
All indicators are still bearish.
We continue to advise short positions as far as 0.9950 is resistance.
A return below 0.99 will comfort our bearish feeling.
The breakout of 0.98 will give a new sell signal and open the way towards 0.97.
In case of return above 0.9950, we will wait the breakout of 1.0 to advise long positons.
See the previous analysis of the AUD/USD parity of May 21th, 2012
AUD/USD Analysis
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Technical analysis of the AUD/USD parity on May 21th, 2012
Commentary of the AUD/USD parity:
The pair AUD/USD found support on 0.98 last friday.
The pair continues to move on the lower band of its bearish channel (purple lines).
All indicators are bearish.
We continue to advise short positions as far as 0.9950 is resistance.
The breakout of 0.98 will give a new sell signal and open the way towards 0.97.
In case of return above 0.9950, we will wait the breakout of 1.0 to advise long positons.
See the previous analysis of the AUD/USD parity of May 18th, 2012
AUD/USD Analysis
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Central Banks' to the Rescue?
Central Banks' to the Rescue?
The Bank of England stole the headlines this morning as it delivered its second Inflation Report of the year. Its message was fairly grim: the UK won't regain its 2007 level of output until 2018. The biggest threat to the UK economy right now according to the bank is the impasse in the Eurozone (something the BOE can't control).
The BOE: "blame the Royal Family and the Eurozone"
However, the one thing it can control is QE and interest rates, and it kept the door to more QE firmly open today. It noted that Q1 GDP figures could be revised higher, however a number of "one off" factors like the Queen's Jubilee bank holiday this year could knock 0.5% from GDP. This "holiday" could have a more damaging economic effect than the Royal Wedding, according to the Bank. ...
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Weak Outlook for Australia
Forex News and Events:
The S&P GSCI Index reversed its 2011 gains in the last six consecutive trading sessions. As a matter of fact, the index tracking 24 commodities broke down 7.6% from a high of 684.15 on April 30th to a more than four-month low low of 634.25 during yesterday’s trade session. This downturn in commodity prices can be explained on the one hand by headlines from the Euro area, as markets seem to be pricing in a second round of elections in Greece as well as a probable EU exit. On the other hand, the marked slowdown of commodity-intensive economies such as China -see Newsletter May 14- pushed prices lower in light of atrophied demand and lower infrastructure investments. From the foreign exchange perspective, the Australian dollar having experienced a 34% appreciation ...
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Technical analysis of the AUD/USD parity on May 15th, 2012
Commentary of the AUD/USD parity:
The pair AUD/USD has continued its bearish movement and the breakout of the support at 1.0 gave us a new sell signal.
Currently, the pair is testing a pullback on this leve.
All indicators are bearish.
The pair continues to move into its bearish channel (purple lines) and seems to move into a falling wedge (reversal pattern).
We continue to advise short positions as far as 1.01 is resistance.
The breakout of 0.99 will give a new sell signal and open the way towards 0.98.
In case of return above 1.01, we will wait the breakout of 1.0150 to advise long positons.
See the previous analysis of the AUD/USD parity of May 14th, 2012
AUD/USD Analysis
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Technical analysis of the AUD/USD parity on May 14th, 2012
Commentary of the AUD/USD parity:
The pair AUD/USD continues its bearish movement and is currently testing the support at 1.0.
The pair is still moving into its bearish channel (purple lines).
All indicators are bearish.
We continue to advise short positions as far as 1.0125 is resistance.
The breakout of 1.00 will give a new sell signal and open the way towards 0.99.
In case of return above 1.0125, we will wait the breakout of 1.0223 to advise long positons.
See the previous analysis of the AUD/USD parity of May 11th, 2012
AUD/USD Analysis
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Contending With Greece And Spain
Risk assets continue to get sold today and the back-drop remains fragile. The leader of the radical left Syrizia party in Greece has two days to try to form a government, thus expect anti-austerity/ anti bailout rhetoric to continue to come out of Athens today. It appears that Tsipars – the head of Syrizia - wants to hold new elections to try and win the premiership. This only extends the uncertainty about Greece remaining in the Eurozone, which spooked risk assets yesterday.
Spanish banks
That isn't the only thing that investors need to contend with. The Spanish bond market is pricing in the risk of the government needing to bail out its banking sector, hence why its bond yields are flying higher this morning. The 10-year yield has risen nearly 25 basis points so far today and is back ...
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Political Disruptions Weigh on Risk Sentiment
USD is trading firmly against the majors (except the JPY) with the Dollar Index advancing to approach the pivotal 80.00 level. With little economic data due out today, the market's focus remains on political developments in Europe and the elevated uncertainty is seeing traders shift away from risky assets and into safe havens. US Treasury yields are lower with the 10-year yield currently around 1.84% and US equities are lower with the DJIA and S&P 500 currently down by -0.60% and -0.68% respectively. The dollar is strongest against the commodity currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD) amid growth concerns and significant technical declines in commodities. Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading below a long term trendline support which began at the lows in Oct. 2008 and crude oil is currently below its 200- ...
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Technical analysis of the AUD/USD parity on May 4th, 2012
Commentary of the AUD/USD parity:
The pair AUD/USD has validated yesterday the breakout of 1.03, offering a new sell signal.
The pair continues to move on a parallel to its bearish channel (purple lines).
All indicators are bearish.
We continue to advise short positions as far as 1.0350 is resistance.
The breakout of 1.0250 will give a new sell signal and open the way towards 1.02.
In case of return above 1.0350, we will wait the breakout of 1.04 to advise long positons.
See the previous analysis of the AUD/USD parity of May 3rd, 2012
AUD/USD Analysis
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