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Parity A CorrectionTitle:
FOMC Minutes and US Labour Market in Focus
The Week Ahead
Highlights
FOMC minutes and US labour market in focus
More QE for the UK
Spain and other sovereign concerns
RBA to hold for now
Market Moves
FOMC minutes and US labour market in focus
The past week has seen a multitude of Fed speakers express their views on the economic outlook and monetary policy. Voting members Bernanke, Lacker, Lockhart, Duke, and Dudley all delivered speeches as well as non-voters Plosser, Fisher, and Rosengren. The main focus was on Chairman Bernanke who reiterated his concern that the economic recovery is "slower than we would have hoped" and that "the job market remains far from normal". The Fed Chairman noted the benefits of continued accommodation and kept open the option for further easing. Markets will look to the release ...
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Technical analysis of the AUD/USD parity on March 27th, 2012
Commentary of the AUD/USD parity:
The pair AUD/USD made a correction yesterday and got back above the resistance at 1.05.
The pair got out of its bearish channel from the top and is currently moving between the upper band of the channel (purple line) and a former bullish slant.
All indicators are bullish.
We are neutral on the pair between 1.05 and 1.0550.
We advise to wait an exit of this range to take position:
- Long above 1.0550. The breakout of 1.06 will give a new buy signal
- Short below 1.05. The breakout of 1.04 will give a new sell signal.
See the previous analysis of the AUD/USD parity of March 26th, 2012
AUD/USD Analysis
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Gold inches up as buyers trickle back after selloff
Gold edged higher on Friday as buyers slowly returned to the market, lured by Wednesday's plunge of 5 percent, although bullion is still looking at its worst week since December.
U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's lack of a reference to further quantitative easing at congressional testimony on Wednesday sparked a heavy sell-off in bullion, sending the metal to a one-month low short of $1,700.
Gold's fall to the lower end of its previous range showed the lack of conviction required to push prices above $1,800 or higher, but analysts and traders saw Wednesday's plunge as a healthy correction rather than the end of the bull run.
"The broader macro backdrop remains gold-favorable, given the negative interest rate environment, longer-term inflationary concerns and lingering ...
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PRECIOUS-Gold inches up as buyers trickle back after selloff
(Reuters) - Gold edged higher on Friday as buyers slowly returned to the market, lured by Wednesday's plunge of 5 percent, although bullion is still looking at its worst week since December.
U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's lack of a reference to further quantitative easing at congressional testimony on Wednesday sparked a heavy sell-off in bullion, sending the metal to a one-month low short of $1,700.
Gold's fall to the lower end of its previous range showed the lack of conviction required to push prices above $1,800 or higher, but analysts and traders saw Wednesday's plunge as a healthy correction rather than the end of the bull run.
"The broader macro backdrop remains gold-favorable, given the negative interest rate environment, longer-term inflationary concerns and ...
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Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 15/02/2012
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
Europe's largest economy contracted less than expected in fourth quarter, signalling Germany may avoid crisis despite declining demand across region. German GDP dropped 0.2% in last quarter of 2011 compared to 0.6% growth in the third quarter. Economists questioned by Bloomberg predicted a drop of 0.3%. Meanwhile France's economy unexpectedly in expanded 0.2% in last three months of 2011.
USD
Demand for automobiles pushed upwards the industrial production level in the US. The total industrial output rose by 0.7% in January; the December figure was revised to +1.5%. Analysts believe that shortages in business inventories and increasing machinery investments will keep industrial output level quite high in near term.
GBP
UK unemployment rose to 2.67, ...
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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 14/02/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
" is a crucial step forward toward the adoption of the second program"
- Olli Rehn, EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner
Germany and the European Commission welcomed Greek approval of additional austerity measures required to secure a 130 billion euro bailout from international lenders.
USD
"It’s a continuation of the bull market and we’re encouraged by what we are seeing in Europe"
- Laszlo Birinyi, president of Birinyi Associates Inc.
U.S. stocks rose on Monday after Greek lawmakers turned austerity plan into law to secure rescue funds from the International Monetary Fund and Europe.
GBP
"Growth is starting again because we’ve got tentative signs of optimism"
- John Cridland, CBI Director-General
The Confederation of British Industry said the nation ...
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Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 13/02/2012
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
Germany and the European Commission welcomed Greek approval of the austerity steps demanded for a financial lifeline, suggesting euro finance chiefs will pull Greece back from the brink when they meet in two days.
USD
US customer confidence fell more than predicted in early February as improving employment data did not manage to offset worries about steady wages.
GBP
After a sharp decline on Friday, British FTSE 100 index rebounded on Monday, climbing 1%, helped by financial and resource shares as investors digested news about parliamentary approval of Greece austerity plan.
CHF
Swiss producer and import prices fell in January as appreciating Switzerland's currency and weaker demand from Euro Zone drove costs down, said Swiss Federal Statistics ...
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The Weekly Bottom Line : 28/01/2012
The Weekly Bottom Line : 28/01/2012
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK
United States
The Federal Reserve committed to keep rates on hold through the end of 2014 this week, while today's Q4 GDP released underscored the fragility of the economic recovery. Unfortunately, further monetary easing isn't what is going to provide the jolt the economy needs.
What's holding the economy back right now isn't the price of credit; it's the lack of quality borrowers. The pool of potential borrowers willing and able to take advantage of lower interest rates is limited. And as long as aggregate demand remains depressed, businesses will continue to put off investing until the economic outlook improves.
What the economy needs right now is more effective fiscal policy solutions. However, fiscal policy so ...
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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 24/01/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The world needs a strong leadership role from Germany today, and it is Germany’s core interest to provide such a role"
- Christine Lagarde, IMF managing director
International Monetary Fund managing director Christine Lagarde warned on Monday that the global economy could slide into a “1930s moment” if Europe does not solve its fiscal problems, and said Europe’s largest economy must contribute more money to avert financial collapse.
USD
"It’s been a brisk run in risk assets this year"
- Stephen Wood, chief market strategist at Russell Investments
U.S. stocks closed mixed on Monday as investors debated whether a three-week rally in equities was warranted.
GBP
"We believe the risks to current 2012 profit forecasts are more evenly balanced than implied by ...
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