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Outlook For The Global RecoveryTitle:
What would Greek exit mean for the U.S. economy?
(Reuters) - Uncertainty over the fate of the euro currency is already dampening U.S. economic growth and any significant worsening of the crisis would deal a blow to a recovery that is gradually gathering steam.
Economists estimate that volatile markets and business uncertainty over the fate of Greece and the policy course in Europe is already shaving anywhere from one tenth to one half a percentage point from U.S. 2012 gross domestic product growth.
In a Reuters poll last week, U.S. GDP was forecast on average at 2.3 percent for 2012 and 2.4 percent for 2013.
The direct hit to growth comes through trade. U.S. exports to the European Union account for 19 percent of total exports, and those to the euro zone represent 13 percent of the total. But when calculated in terms of GDP, the share ...
Title:
Oil climbs above $106 as Iran talks stall
(Reuters) - Brent crude oil rose above $106 a barrel on Thursday as reports of a hiccup in talks with Iran over its nuclear program balanced weak economic data from China and Europe.
Iran accused world powers on Thursday of creating "a difficult atmosphere" that hindered negotiations on its atomic energy program, signaling a snag in diplomacy to defuse fears of an Iranian attempt to develop nuclear bombs.
Brent futures rose 90 cents to trade at $106.46 by 1336 GMT after earlier touching a high of $106.90 before weak Chinese and European economic data sparked a bout of selling.
U.S. crude for July rose $1.44 to a high of $91.34 after settling at $89.90 a barrel on Wednesday, its lowest close for front-month U.S. crude since October 21.
Investors are worried that failure to agree a deal ...
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Copper up from 4-1/2 month low, EU data weighs
(Reuters) - Copper firmed a little on Thursday after sinking to a 4-1/2 month low in the previous session but remained under pressure as downbeat data from the European Union raised worries that global economic weakness will hit demand for industrial metals.
Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange was trading at $7,589.50 a tonne by 0939 GMT, 0.8 percent up from a close at $7,531 on Wednesday.
The metal, used in power and construction, has dropped on risk aversion triggered by worries about Greece's possible exit from the euro zone.
Business surveys showed Germany's manufacturing sector has been shrinking at the fastest rate in three years in May and the euro zone's private sector has sunk further into the doldrums this month as new orders shrivel, forcing firms to run down ...
Title:
European Market Update : 24/05/2012
Major European PMI Manufacturing data misses expectations; German IFO Business Confidence falls for the first time in 7 months
Economic Data
(RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e May 18th: $514.3B v $518.8B prior
(DE) Germany Q1 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.5% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.7%e; GDP WDA Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.2%e
(DE) Germany Q1 Private Consumption: 0.4% v 0.2%e; Government Spending: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Domestic Demand: -0.3% v 0.0%e; Capital Investment: -1.1% v -0.3%e; Construction Investment: -1.3% v -0.4%e; Exports: 1.7% v 0.9%e; Imports: 0.0% v 0.3%e
(CH) Swiss Apr Trade Balance (CHG): 1.3B v 1.9Be; Real Exports M/M: -0.9% v +0.2%e; Real Imports M/M: 2.6% v 5.9% prior
(FI) Finland Apr PPI M/M: -0.1% v +0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.4% prior
(FI) Finland Apr Preliminary Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -2.0% v ...
Title:
Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 24/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
Concern about Greece "is a big weight on the market and makes things uncertain"
- Emmanuel Soupre, a fund manager at Neuflize Private Assets
European stocks tumbled on Wednesday, after rising by the most in a month on Tuesday, on speculation Greece may exit the euro zone.
USD
"It’s very clear now that the housing market has turned a corner"
- Richard DeKaser, deputy chief economist at Parthenon Group LLC
Sales of new U.S. homes rose by more than expected in April, Commerce Department data showed on Wednesday. Purchases increased to an annual rate of 343,000, up by 3.3 per cent from a revised 332,000 in March.
GBP
" employment remains fragile and wage growth weak"
- Ross Walker, chief U.K. economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group
U.K. retails sales declined by ...
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OECD: Australia to grow at the fastest pace
The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) released a report for the outlook of Australia’s economy, saying that Australia is going to grow at a faster pace compared with most other advanced economies in 2012 and 2013.
The economy is projected to record a growth of 3.1% in 2012 and 3.7% in 2013, where the organization noted that the global economy is gradually gaining momentum although recovery could by hindered by the crisis in the euro area.
The organization also noted that Australia is expected to keep benefiting from the mining boom which may continue during the upcoming years, however some other sectors have to adjust to the stringer local currency and raise their productivity accordingly.
Title:
Asia shares ease as weak China PMI, Greece risks weigh
(Reuters) - Asian shares eased on Thursday as markets were vulnerable to faltering factory orders in China and lack of concrete measures shown by European leaders to tackle the risk of Greece leaving the currency bloc.
European Union leaders, at an informal meeting on Wednesday, said they wanted Greece to stay in the euro zone while respecting commitments it had made in return for its bailout, but have been advised by senior officials to prepare contingency plans in case Greece exits.
The murky outlook for the euro zone and fears that the crisis could derail the global economy have prompted investors to park money in safe-haven assets such as U.S. and German government bonds, the U.S. dollar or cash.
Implications of a retreat in China's HSBC Flash Purchasing Managers Index, the earliest ...
Title:
Greek Debt Crisis: Answers to Frequently Asked Questions
Highlights
- An acceleration in deposit withdrawals, combined with the prospect of an anti-austerity party winning the next election, has brought to the fore concerns about a potential Greek exit from the euro zone.
- Our base case assumption is that under the most likely scenario, the Greek election will lead to a government that sticks to an EU/IMF program, even if the terms are renegotiated.
- However, we do believe that Greece needs a further restructuring of its debt and we do think the country will ultimately exit the euro - we're just not convinced that Europe is ready for this to happen at the moment.
- If an accident does occur and Greece does leave the euro in the near term, it would have global financial ramifications that could range from severe to catastrophic. ...
Title:
Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 23/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
German bunds rose on worries that European leaders will struggle to resolve the euro zone debt crisis during tonight's European summit. David Schnautz of Commerzbank AG in London thinks that Europe is unlikely to solve key topics and will probably disappoint the market. The 5-year bund lost 5 bp to 0.47 percent at 10:49 GMT after tumbling to 0.461 percent, the lowest since 1990, when Bloomberg began gathering data.
USD
Crude oil futures declined in Asian session on Wednesday as Iran is ready to invite nuclear inspectors, the move that may ease oil import sanctions. Light, sweet crude oil futures for July delivery traded at 91.27 US Dollars per barrel, retreating by 0.63% from the last session's high of 91.72 US Dollars per barrel.
GBP
Today the minutes of the ...
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