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Forex Market Ends Friday with Heavy News Day
With a moderately heavy US news day expected Friday, dollar traders should be anticipating some exciting currency movements brought about by heightened liquidity. Beginning at 13:30 GMT, the US will be releasing its nominal and core CPI figures to fill in the consumer side of its inflationary reports this week. Shortly thereafter it will publish its Empire State Manufacturing Index, its Capacity Utilization Rate, Industrial Production, and Preliminary University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations reports.
Economic News
USD - US Dollar Gains as Bernanke Notes Delay in Potential Easing
The US dollar was seen trading higher yesterday as traders began to reevaluate the recent dip in USD values from statements the Fed may institute another round of quantitative ...
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Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (13:30 GMT)
EUR/USD
Maintains near-term positive tone off 1.3836, after gains peaked at 1.4281 and subsequent pullback found support at 1.4156, just above initial support at 1.4130. Regain of 1.4281 is sought for resumption of current uptrend towards key near-term barrier at 1.4373, 07 July high. Failure to clear 1.4281 would risk further easing, as hourly momentum is waning. Loss of 1.4100 support, however, to weaken the structure.
Res: 1.4257, 1.4281, 1.4300, 1.4351
Sup: 1.4156, 1.4130, 1.4109, 1.4098
GBP/USD
Strong rally that emerged after yesterday’s consolidation at 1.5960/00 zone, breached key near-term resistances at 1.6045/77, 200 day MA, 08 July high and 1.6139, 04 July correction top, to extend recovery from fresh 7-month low at 1.5779, posted on 12 July. New high was reached at 1.6192, ...
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Analysis:Shift in petrodollar to unnerve Western markets
The long-standing support from petrodollars for Western financial markets is gradually waning as oil-rich countries favor recycling their windfall revenues closer to home and away from low-yielding developed economies mired in the debt crisis.
Big oil producing countries provided a key source of stability and liquidity for developed markets in the past, and their purchases of Western assets also helped mitigate the impact of higher energy costs on economic growth.
Petrodollar savings flows over the coming year are expected to hit $70 billion a month, surpassing the level reached during the boom of 2005-2007, as the global economy resumes a recovery after the current soft patch.
But low real and expected rates of return in developed markets and debt crises in the euro zone and the United ...
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Dollar sold off
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK at 0800 GMT (EDT +0400)
USD
The dollar was dealt a double blow over the past 12 hours. Moody’s put the US sovereign rating on review for a possible downgrade, citing a lack of progress in negotiations on raising the debt ceiling. The dollar sold off in response, and losses were especially pronounced against the JPY and CHF. Earlier, Fed Chairman Bernanke’s testimony to Congress set a relatively dovish tone and comments suggesting that the option for further stimulus remains open stoked fears of another round of QE. Bernanke’s speech largely repeated themes from his June 22 comments but the Fed is clearly keeping an open stance on policy until a significant trend in data emerges. The euro shook off uncertainty over the timing of a potential emergency meeting in the ...
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Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:00 GMT)
EUR/USD
Strong rebound from 1.3836, 12 July low, exceeded our barrier at 1.4200, to extend gain to 1.4281 so far, just under Fib 61.8% retracement of 1.4576/1.3836 downleg. This confirms temporary bottom at 1.3836 and turns near-term focus higher. Corrective pullback from 1.4281, on overbought hourly conditions, has so far been contained by 20 day MA at 1.4165, with further reversal to be contained at 1.4130/00 zone, to keep immediate bulls in play. Above 1.4281 open way for test of key near-term resistance at 1.4373.
Res: 1.4250, 1.4281, 1.4300, 1.4351
Sup: 1.4165, 1.4130, 1.4109, 1.4098
http://mediaserver.fxstreet.com/Reports/325f5b3f-7a7d-4768-8193-afec3573778f/eurusd_20110714072015.gif
GBP/USD
Strong rally that emerged after yesterday’s consolidation at 1.5960/00 zone, breached ...
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Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 13/07/2011
Previous session overview
The dollar added to its losses Tuesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's prepared testimony in front of Congress was released.
Bernanke's statement reiterated recent comments that U.S. growth remains modest so far in 2011. He said the central bank expects the economy to improve during the second half of the year, but it remains at the ready to ease monetary policy if growth remains slow.
The euro rose to USD1.4074 from about USD1.4047 just before the testimony was released. The dollar was at JPY79.17 from about JPY79.26.
Stronger demand for riskier assets undermined the dollar's safe-haven appeal Wednesday, which fell to a new record low against the Swiss franc.
The dollar fell as low as CHF0.8265. The euro continued its recovery from Tuesday's ...
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Forex - Chinese Data Gives Market Hope
Forex News and Events:
Cowboys and bargain hunters stepped in the market to give risk appetite a boost. Asian regional indices were higher across the board, with Shanghai leading the way up 1.46%. The correction in risk was good buffer, allowing everyone a moment to take a deep breath in a market that was becoming very negative. USD came under selling pressure, with the EURUSD able to climb back above the 1.4000 handle and USDJPY hitting stops at 79.00, and briefly running to 78.49. The thin summer liquidity caused choppy patterns and exacerbated trader’s apprehension. On the bright side strong China data across the board GDP 9.5% vs. 9.4% exp, Retail sales 17.7% vs. 17% exp, while Industrial Production hit 15.1% vs. 13.1% exp, supported risk accumulation. However, the more entrenched ...
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Chinese economic data stronger than expected
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK at 0800 GMT (EDT +0400)
USD
Risk appetite held steady during the Asia session, helped in part by stronger than expected Chinese economic data. EURUSD traded 1.3951-1.4054 and USDJPY traded 78.50-79.58. However, in another sign that the currency union’s woes are only beginning, Moody’s has downgraded Ireland to Ba1, or junk status, citing concerns that there could be further pressure on the sovereign from a disorderly default, or if the Irish government were unable to meet its targeted fiscal consolidation goals. Given that the ECB had waived collateral rules for Irish debt in Q1, the impact was not as significant as that on Portugal, but we expect headlines to remain negative for the euro in general. There is particular concern over whether the European Union is in ...
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Euro Sell-Off continues
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK at 0800 GMT (EDT +0400)
USD
The euro continued to sell off during the Asia session as Monday’s meeting of Eurozone finance ministers failed to produce any concrete proposals to address the latest bout of market nervousness. EURUSD traded 1.3932-1.4062 and USDJPY 80.06-80.38. Italy’s debt auctions on Thursday are likely to be the next major risk event for the euro, and are already fast becoming the focus of market attention. Yesterday, Spanish 10y yields climbed above 6% for the first time since the launch of the euro. Italian 10y yields pushed 42 bp higher on the day, while German bunds saw safe haven demand. EURCHF made new record lows overnight, dipping below 1.1700 again. European stocks fell sharply, and the S&P 500 followed closing -1.81% lower. FOMC minutes are ...
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