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Opened On A BearishTitle:
SunBirdFX Daily Market Analysis : 11/08/2011
www.sunbirdfx.com
The US stock market opened the week on the green territory in spite the un-clarity regarding the Greek government and the European debt problem. All of the three major indices made classic reversal patterns on their daily chart and if the S&P 500 breaks through the resistance of the last 3-trading days, it might jump to 1300 points.
Important news for today: BOE Inflation Letter & CPI (GBP), German ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR), PPI & Retail Sales (USD),
AUD/USD
The Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes were published earlier this morning and will probably affect the Aussie on the beginning of the day. The momentum of the USD against the major currencies, which is determined by Wall Street and Europe, influences the pair. Therefore, the pattern of the recent candlesticks is ...
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The Euro drops sharply with the start of a new week
As a new week begins, the euro declined sharply against the U.S. dollar, due to rising concerns and dominant jitters in Europe, where the pair is biased to the downside, especially after the Greek Prime Minister announced that he will step down and hand his powers to the coalition government, while France is to apply further austerity measures to save the nation from the debt crisis, in the time lights are focused on Italy with a vote from the Parliament on the budget expected tomorrow.
Europe remains the main focus in the market, where we can see world leaders and after the two-day meeting on November 3 and 4 were unable to quell jitters and rising fears in Europe, where all eyes were concentrated on them to solve the debt crisis and force European governments to move and tackle the debt ...
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Asia shares fall after Greece coalition deal, Italy eyed
(Reuters) - Asian shares struggled and credit markets weakened on Monday, with investors still nervous despite the agreement on formation of a new Greek unity government intent on avoiding imminent debt default.
Investors were also shifting their attention to another debt-burdened country, Italy, which faces political instability as well, putting it under pressure to swiftly restore its credibility on financial markets.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan, which traded between plus 0.2 percent and minus 0.6 percent, was down 0.2 percent while Japan's Nikkei stock average .N225 ended down 0.39 percent.
U.S. stock index futures reversed course and fell into negative territory after opening higher, as market players refocused on a lack of commitment to details that ...
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The U.S. dollar retreats further after the ADP employment change
Despite the jitters and rising fears in the market, the U.S. private sector was able to ease the sharpness of pessimism seen in the market after it added more than expected jobs to the economy, indicating the U.S. economy return on the right track to overcome the sluggish growth.
The U.S. dollar slipped further after the upbeat employment report from the private sector, where demand for the low yielding currency sagged as jitters eased in the market, awaiting the critical FOMC rate decision later on the day.
The U.S. dollar index (USDIX) opened the session in Asia today at 77.31, and recorded the highest at 77.58 and the lowest at 76.82, and is currently hovering around 76.91.
Moreover, the euro continues to trade positively despite jitters and rising debt woes amid the complex ...
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SunBirdFX Daily Market Analysis : 11/01/2011
www.sunbirdfx.com
Wall Street opened the first day of the trading week on the red zone. Indices shed 2%, but the low volumes indicated that it was just a natural correction of the recent rally. The S&P might continue down to the level of 1230 points and retest that level, which is a former resisting area.
USD/JPY
The USD jumped against the Yen yesterday after an intervention of the Bank of Japan. This was the third intervention by the BOJ this year, and it came after the Yen set a record of 75.56 against the USD. Interventions tend to be extremely volatile and therefore any trading during this phenomenon is dangerous. Likewise, traders who try to predict when the impact of the intervention will end and open a position on the opposite direction are simply gamblers. The best thing to do ...
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Sentiment is still largely euro-negative
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK at 0800 GMT (EDT +0400)
USD
The past few trading sessions have provided investors enough headlines to anticipate the broad outcomes of this week’s Eurozone summit. There are plans on the table, which are not mutually exclusive, and the debate has shifted back to private sector participation in reducing Greece‘s liabilities. It is somewhat reassuring that no official calls for coercive restructuring have yet been made. Nevertheless, indications are that a 60% NPV reduction may now be on the cards, and achieving sufficient participation for such a plan on a voluntary basis could be a challenge.
Sentiment is still largely euro-negative, although there is little appetite to add to euro shorts here given the risk that a batch of euro-positive headlines could materialize ...
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Forex - Waiting on European Policy Makers
Forex News and Events:
Massive uncertainty around this weekend's summit will dominate fx price action today. We suspect further reduction of risk going into this weekend, given the chaotic and often times confusing comments, reports and politicized nature of this crisis, as it is really anyones guess on what will happen sunday night (or now potentially wednesday). Given European policy makers renewed efforts to hammer out a deal, we suspect that a solid solution will be forth coming. That said, this deal never fully addresses the structural root of the problem. Greece and other peripheral and core nations (western and eastern) needs growth to help manage deficits. And on this topic, the sell off we are witnessing in China's stocks and commodities are worrying. Even if the USA manages to ...
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Forex - Doubtful of a Higher EURCHF “Floor”
Forex News and Events:
Trading remains dominated by random headline reports making FX trading volatile and prone to sudden reversals. The selloff in risk correlated trades has been driven primarily by heavy barrage of warnings that expectations for a grand solution at this weekend summit were overdone. In addition there is mounting reports that even if policy makers wanted to make a deal they lack the integration to execute a grand solution. Media outlets are reporting that the fund being made available to recapitalize banks could end up being less the €100bn and legal issues might stop having the EFSF directly guarantee sovereign debt. In addition, as rumor that emergence talks between French President Sarkozy, German Chancellor Merkel and the heads of the IMF and ECB have stalled. ...
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Forex - Moody’s Downgrades Spain
Forex News and Events:
FX markets remain volatile and directed by random headlines. Yesterday’s reversal trigger was said to be the Guardian newspaper which suggested that France and Germany have agreed to form a leveraged EFSF worth €2trn. Although the story was promptly denied by an unnamed official, the positive comments were enough to offset the more negative comments and events. The first event was defined as the continued efforts for German policymakers to downplay expectations for this week’s meeting of Eurozone finance ministers and Sunday's EU summit. The second event was the news that Moody’s had downgraded Spain’s sovereign rating by two notches to A1. Moody’s is now a single notch below S&P and Fitch at AA-. In addition, there are worrying signs that the Eurozone periphery ...
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