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Only Long PositionsTitle:
USD/JPY Hits 3-Month Low amid Poor US News
The USD/JPY hit a fresh 3-month low today, as worse than expected news out of the US continued to weigh down on the pair. Rumors have begun circulating that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) may soon intervene in the currency market to limit yen growth. Today, traders will want to once again monitor US economic indicators. Specifically, the weekly US Unemployment Claims figure and a testimony from the Fed Chairman are likely to create market volatility.
Economic News
USD - Dollar Continues to Tumble against Main Currency Rivals
The combination of better than expected euro-zone news and a poor US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change figure caused the USD to extend its bearish trend throughout the day yesterday. The EUR/USD shot up well over 100 pips during the European trading session, and once again ...
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Top Japan bank plans for JGB sell-off, no near-term shift seen
(Reuters) - Japan's top banking group, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (8306.T), has drawn up a contingency plan that flags 2016 as the time when the nation's current account may slide into deficit and trigger a government bond sell-off, a newspaper reported on Thursday.
Asahi newspaper said a plan prepared by a unit of the group -- Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ -- late last year estimated that 10-year bond yields could rise to around 3.5 percent in about four years' time from about 1 percent today.
It said that in such case the bank, which held about 3 trillion yen ($39.41 billion) of bonds with more than 10 years to maturity, would sell as much as possible of those bonds and shift to short-term bills.
For more than a decade, Japan's government has been able to fund its snowballing debt at ...
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Manufacturing Growth Continues
I have to tell you what’s on my mind this morning after watching the price action again yesterday… I know, it’s just me, and no one else in the writing/analyst world will tell you this, because they have no proof… I don’t either, but that never stops me from saying what’s on my mind regarding these markets now, does it?
After watching time and time again, the overseas markets take the dollar to the woodshed, and then when the New York traders come in, the price action all gets reversed. I thought to myself, “Self, doesn’t it look like New York traders have orders from the top of the house to make sure the dollar doesn’t fall off a cliff? Why, yes, self, it does look like that!” Now let’s get back to reality…
Here’s an illustration that shows us just how dumb the markets are these days… ...
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European shares rise on Greece optimism
(Reuters) - European shares rose on Wednesday, helped by a boost to bank stocks from hopes of an agreement in Greek debt swap talks and better-than-expected Chinese manufacturing data.
Earnings, which have so far only given mixed results, were another focus, with Infineon (IFXGn.DE) rising 5.5 percent, near the top of the leaderboard after the German chipmaker reported forecast-beating results.
Banks, many of which have exposure to euro zone sovereign debt, featured among the best performers, with the STOXX Europe 600 Banks index .SX7P up 2.4 percent.
Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said talks between Greece and its private creditors were "one formal step away," with a deal needed to avoid a messy default which could have serious consequences for financial markets.
"It is ...
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Forex - Greece Rejects Greater EU Oversight
Forex News and Events:
With Greek negotiations ongoing but yet to reach a conclusion, media chatter over the weekend was dominated by reports that Germany wishes to have greater oversight of Greece’s budget – a proposal that Greece has readily dismissed. The suggestion was endorsed by German cabinet minister Philipp Roesler, and reflects the widespread scepticism both across the market and amongst policy makers that Greece could struggle to bring its debt down to sustainable levels. Even if the bond swap discussions between Greece and its private investors manages to come to a positive (albeit later than expected) conclusion, it is clear that plenty of hurdles still remain for Greece’s credibility as a viable contributor to the Eurozone. As we approach Greece’s next major bond ...
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USD Bearish Ahead of Heavy Trading Week
The US dollar closed last week on a bearish note, as it took significant losses against most of its main currency rivals, including the euro and Japanese yen. The dollar began to decline during the middle of the week, following an announcement from the Fed saying that record low US interest rates would likely remain for the next several years. A softer than expected US Advanced GDP figure on Friday only caused the currency to drop further. This week, all eyes will be on the US Non-Farm Payrolls figure. Should the figure come in below expectations, the dollar will likely extend its bearish trend.
Economic News
USD - USD Looks to Reverse Last Week's Losses
Last week's announcement by the Fed that US interest rates would likely remain at their current, near-zero levels until 2014 sent the ...
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Asian shares, euro slip as markets eye Greek debt deal
(Reuters) - Asian stocks and the euro slipped on Monday as investors took profits from a recent share rally and adopted a cautious stance to await the outcome of talks on a Greek debt swap deal that is key to avoiding a messy default and yet another European summit.
Commodities from copper to oil also lost steam from last week, when the Federal Reserve's pledge to keep interest rates low boosted riskier assets, while the dollar index .DXY, regained ground from Friday's fall to a seven-week low.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS dropped 0.6 percent from its highest since October 31 hit earlier, after rising 2 percent last week for its fourth consecutive weekly gain. The Nikkei average .N225 dipped 0.6 percent. .T
Shanghai shares reopened with a loss, ...
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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 27/01/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The cost of postponing a solution is extremely high for Europe, but especially for the future of the euro"
- Giovanni Bossi, chief executive officer of Banca Ifis SpA
Talks on Greek debt swap resumed on Thursday as European finance ministers pressure private bondholders to take bigger losses on their Greek holdings.
USD
"Improving economic momentum and diminished angst surrounding the financial crisis has encouraged businesses to take on more risk"
- Richard DeKaser, deputy chief economist at Parthenon Group Inc.
The number of Americans claiming for unemployment benefits rose to 377 thousand in the week ended January 21 from 356 thousand the week before, said the Department of Labor on Thursday.
GBP
"Given the key role of consumer spending, the CBI survey ...
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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 26/01/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The widely-spread fear that the euro zone's biggest economy could now also be caught by the crisis virus has been soothed"
- Carsten Brzeski, an economist at ING in Brussels
German business confidence improved for a third consecutive month in January, a sign Europe’s largest economy may avoid a recession. The Ifo institute’s business climate index, based on a survey of 7,000 businesses, rose to 108.3 from 107.3 in December.
USD
"We’ve had a clear turn toward positive momentum in the housing market at the end of 2011"
- Aaron Smith, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics Inc.
U.S. month on month pending home sales decreased 3.5% in December, following a 7.3% increase in November, said the National Association of Realtors on Wednesday.
GBP
"There are growing ...
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