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Move Between The SupportTitle:
Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 05/16/2012
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
Stoxx Europe 600 index have dropped for third consecutive day and reached the lowest level since the start of this year as specialists speculate that elections in Greece could take place as early as 10 of June. The index lost 0.5% of its value by noon in London and around 10% from its peak this year in mid-March.
USD
Facebook increases the share offering by 25% to 421.2M shares to collect near $16B. At the offering's price of $34-$38 per share Facebook is rushing towards the largest technology IPO in the history. Production of utilities, mines and factory's in the U.S. surpassed expected 0.6% level and increased by 1.1% in April.
GBP
The number of unemployed people for January-March decreased to 2.63 million, 45,000 down on the quarter, the Office for ...
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Central Banks' to the Rescue?
Central Banks' to the Rescue?
The Bank of England stole the headlines this morning as it delivered its second Inflation Report of the year. Its message was fairly grim: the UK won't regain its 2007 level of output until 2018. The biggest threat to the UK economy right now according to the bank is the impasse in the Eurozone (something the BOE can't control).
The BOE: "blame the Royal Family and the Eurozone"
However, the one thing it can control is QE and interest rates, and it kept the door to more QE firmly open today. It noted that Q1 GDP figures could be revised higher, however a number of "one off" factors like the Queen's Jubilee bank holiday this year could knock 0.5% from GDP. This "holiday" could have a more damaging economic effect than the Royal Wedding, according to the Bank. ...
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Technical analysis of the EUR/GBP pair on May 16th, 2012
Commentary of the EUR/GBP pair:
The pair EUR/GBP has continued its bearish movement and is currently testing the support at 0.7950.
The bearish gap which ocurred at the opening is still not filled in.
All indicators are bearish.
The pair is still moving into a bearish channel (purple lines).
We continue to advise short positions as far as 0.8050 is resistance.
The breakout of 0.7950 will give a new sell signal and open the way towards 0.79.
In case of return above 0.8050, we will be neutral between this level and 0.81.
The breakout of 0.81 will give a buy signal.
See the previous analysis of the EUR/GBP pair of May 15th, 2012
EUR/GBP Analysis
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Technical analysis of the GBP/JPY pair on May 16th, 2012
Commentary of the GBP/JPY pair :
The pair GBP/JPY continues to move below the resistance at 128.86 and is using the upper band of its former falling wedge as support.
Indicators are mitigated.
We continue to advise short positions as far as 128.86 is resistance.
The breakout of 127.70 will give a new sell signal and open the way towards 126.70.
In case of return above 128.86, we will be neutral between this level and 129.50.
The breakout of 129.50 will give a new buy signal.
See the previous analysis of the GBP/JPY pair of May 15th, 2012
GBP/JPY Analysis
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Technical analysis of the NZD/USD pair on May 16th, 2012
Commentary of the NZD/USD pair :
The pair NZD/USD has continued its bearish movement and the breakout of 0.7750 and 0.77 both gave us a new sell signal.
Currently, 0.7668 seems to act as support.
This level match with the lower band of its bearish channel (purple lines).
The gap is still not filled in.
All indiactors are bullish.
We continue to advise short positions as far as 0.78 is resistance.
The breakout of 0.7668 will give a new sell signal and open the way towards 0.76.
In case of return above 0.78, we will be neutral between this level and 0.79.
See the previous analysis of the NZD/USD pair of May 15th, 2012
NZD/USD Analysis
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Technical analysis of the USD/CAD pair on May 16th, 2012
Commentary of the USD/CAD pair :
The pair took support again on 0.9887 yesterday and then the pair USD/CAD finaly broke the resistance at 1.0050, giving us a new buy signal.
The pair is currently testing the next resistance at 1.01.
All indicators are bullish.
The pair seems to move into a bullish channel (black lines).
We continue to advise long positions as far as 1.0 is support.
The breakout of 1.01 will give a new buy signal and will open the way towards 1.0150.
In case of return below 1.0, we will be neutral between this level and 0.9950.
The breakout of 0.9950 will give a sell signal.
See the previous analysis of the USD/CAD pair of May 15th, 2012
USD/CAD Analysis
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Technical analysis of the USD/CHF pair on May 16th, 2012
Commentary of the USD/CHF pair :
The pair USD/CHF has continued its bullish movement and the breakout of 0.94 gave us a new buy signal.
The opening gap is still not filled in.
All indicators are bullish.
We continue to advise long positons as far as 0.9350 is support.
The breakout of 0.9450 will give a new buy signal and open the way towards 0.95.
In case of return below 0.9350, we will be neutral between this level and 0.93.
See the previous analysis of the USD/CHF pair of May 15th, 2012
USD/CHF Analysis
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Germany: The Savior Of Europe?
Germany: The Savior Of Europe?
Germany: The Savior Of Europe?
It's official, the German economy is single handed propping up the Eurozone after its economy grew five times more than forecast in the first quarter. Growth expanded by 0.5% on the quarter, pushing the annual growth rate to 1.2%, which is fairly healthy considering how dire the growth outlook is elsewhere in the currency bloc. We know that some large German companies like BMW had their best ever quarter in the first three months of the year, thus there were signs that Germany could do better than expected. But what is surprising is that even though Italy contracted more than expected at 0.8% in the first quarter, the Eurozone managed to avoid a recession and registered flat growth overall between January and March.
Germany ...
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Weak Outlook for Australia
Forex News and Events:
The S&P GSCI Index reversed its 2011 gains in the last six consecutive trading sessions. As a matter of fact, the index tracking 24 commodities broke down 7.6% from a high of 684.15 on April 30th to a more than four-month low low of 634.25 during yesterday’s trade session. This downturn in commodity prices can be explained on the one hand by headlines from the Euro area, as markets seem to be pricing in a second round of elections in Greece as well as a probable EU exit. On the other hand, the marked slowdown of commodity-intensive economies such as China -see Newsletter May 14- pushed prices lower in light of atrophied demand and lower infrastructure investments. From the foreign exchange perspective, the Australian dollar having experienced a 34% appreciation ...
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