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Move Between The SupportTitle:
Technical analysis of the NZD/USD pair on May 7th, 2012
Commentary of the NZD/USD pair :
The pair NZD/USD has continued its bearish movement last friday and the breakout of 0.80 gave us a new sell signal.
The pair has opened the week on a bearish gap, below the support at 0.7950 (new sell signal).
All indicators are bearish.
The pair is moving into its former bearish channel (purple lines).
We continue to advise short positions as far as 0.8050 is resistance.
The breakout of 0.79 will give a new sell signal and open the way towards 0.7850.
In case of return above 0.8050, we will be neutral between this level and 0.81.
See the previous analysis of the NZD/USD pair of May 4th, 2012
NZD/USD Analysis
Title:
When Will Volatility Pick Up
The Week Ahead
Highlights
When will volatility pick up
Digesting payrolls
Will there be more QE for the UK?
Data Watch
When will volatility pick up?
Volatility in US Treasuries is at its lowest level since 2007, so too is volatility in the FX options market for short-term EURUSD products and the Vix has fallen sharply since peaking in autumn 2011. Yet Europe's sovereign stresses remain as strong as ever, Spain and Italy are struggling to sell their sovereign debt to anyone bar their domestic banking sectors and election risks are enormous as Greece and France go to the polls on Sunday.
So why is volatility so low? The answer lies with central banks and fairly tight FX ranges. When central banks come in and pledge that interest rates will remain extremely low until 2014, ...
Title:
Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 04/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"Technically, easier monetary policy conditions should be currency negative."
- Jane Foley, analyst at Rabobank
The European Central Bank held key rate at 1 per cent on Thursday and told it expects a gradual economic recovery this year.
USD
"Labor market conditions have improved in recent months."
- Federal Open Market Committee
The number of Americans claiming for unemployment benefits tumbled to 365,000 in the week ended April 28 from 392,000 the week before, said the Department of Labor on Thursday.
GBP
"The service sector started the second quarter on a weaker note than in the first quarter, but continued to grow at a reasonable pace."
- Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit
U.K. service sector growth slowed in April, Markit Economics data showed on ...
Title:
Technical analysis of the NZD/USD pair on May 4th, 2012
Commentary of the NZD/USD pair :
The pair NZD/USD has continued its bearish movement and the breakout of 0.8050 gave us a new sell signal.
The pair also broke the lower band of its bearish channel (black lines) and is currently testing the support at 0.80.
All indicators are bearish.
We continue to advise short positions as far as 0.81 is resistance.
The breakout of 0.80 will give a new sell signal and open the way towards 0.7950.
In case of return above 0.81, we will be neutral between this level and 0.8134.
See the previous analysis of the NZD/USD pair of May 3rd, 2012
NZD/USD Analysis
Title:
Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 03/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
German DAX index climbed on Thursday lifted as ECB decided to keep its benchmark rate unchanged and Spain successfully auctioned bonds. Index was supported with positive news from US as data showed jobless claims fell more than expected last week. BMW AG rallied 2.72% after German car maker reported its EBIT jumped 19% in 1st quarter.
USD
Timothy Geithner, US Treasury Secretary, said that China has to alter its polices tied to exports and focus on stimulating domestic consumption. Such change is vital for sustaining China's economic expansion. Currently, China is exploring the ways for new economic reforms as the country recognized the risks of overreliance on exports, Timothy Geithner added.
GBP
Average house prices in the UK declined by 0.2% last month, ...
Title:
Dissecting a Less Dovish Draghi
The Draghi press conference didn't provide much in the way of direction for euro-based assets, yet EURUSD had one of its most volatile afternoons in days. The pair was 1.3100 when Draghi first started speaking. By the time he had finished EURUSD was up 70 points. The ECB didn't shift its stance and it didn't sound any more dovish than it did the last time it met so why the big move in the euro? The reason is down to rate differentials. Draghi didn't cause the rate differential between the currency bloc and the US to narrow as some had expected, which is euro positive in the short-term.
In the long-term the ECB's policy stasis is euro negative especially as the sovereign debt crisis continues to rage and growth in Spain may get worse before it gets better. But the market is unlikely to ...
Title:
ECB Meeting: No Cut in June
The ECB kept the leading interest rate unchanged at 1% as widely expected and did not discuss rate changes at today's Governing Council meeting. There was no change in the use of non-standard measures.
Overall, the tone at the press conference was slightly 'hawkish' compared with consensus expectations. The ECB still considers monetary policy to be very accommodative and there were no 'signals' of further stimuli.
The deterioration in PMIs in April has not caused a change in the ECB's growth outlook, which remains a gradual recovery in the second half of the year. The ECB President acknowledged that the downbeat PMIs highlight the prevailing uncertainty.
Mario Draghi underlined that when he recently referred to the need for a 'growth compact' this was not a call for short-term stimuli ...
Title:
European Market Update : 03/05/2012
Markets focus to see whether the ECB paves the way for further easing
Economic Data
(RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e Apr 27th: $523.3B v $519.5B prior
(IN) India Apr Markit Services PMI: 52.8 v 52.3 prior
(UK) Apr Nationwide House Prices M/M: -0.2% v +0.5%e; Y/Y: -0.9% v -0.3%e
(IE) Ireland Apr NCB Services PMI: 52.2 v 52.1 prior
(CH) Swiss Q1 UBS Real Estate Bubble Index: 0.95 v 0.80 prior
(HU) Hungary Feb Final Trade Balance: €691.2M v €690.1M prelim
(TR) Turkey Apr Consumer Prices M/M: 1.5% v 1.4%e; Y/Y: 11.1% v 11.0%e; Core CPI Y/Y: 0.1% v 7.9% prior
(TR) Turkey Apr Producer Prices M/M: 0.1 v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 7.7% v 8.2% prior
(BR) Brazil Apr FIPE CPI: 0.5% v 0.2% prior
(UK) Apr PMI Services: 53.3 v 54.1e
(HK) Hong Kong Mar Retail Sales Value Y/Y: 17.3% v 14.0%e; Retail Sales ...
Title:
Research Note: ECB Preview
On Thursday 3rd May at 1245 BST/ 0745 ET the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce interest rates. It is widely expected to remain on hold at a record low 1%, for the fifth consecutive month. Of more importance to the market will be ECB President Draghi's press conference at 1330 BST/ 0830 ET as we will likely find out the Bank's view on weakening economic growth and sovereign strains in Spain. Draghi may also shed more light on the 'growth compact' that he suggested at a speech to the European Parliament last week.
We don't believe the Bank will announce any new 'special' measures to try and ease the problems in the Eurozone periphery. President Draghi did not hint in his speech last week that the Bank would re-start its Securities Markets Programme (SMP), which purchases domestic ...
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