Markets The Euphoria Of Finally

If you're waiting for the next meltdown in U.S. stocks or in commodities, you may want to get over it. After several false dawns following the global financial crisis, more investors are starting to believe the current rally in stocks, commodities and emerging markets could be a long-lasting one. The S&P 500 closed above 1,400 points last week for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis. Investors piled into U.S. equity funds, with the biggest weekly inflows since mid-September. "Is this risk rally for real? I think the answer to that question is yes, but it's not a straight line up," said Art Steinmetz, chief investment officer at Oppenheimer Funds in New York, managing more than $177 billion in assets. Oppenheimer is currently betting on stocks tied to upswings in the economy, ...

(Reuters) - If you're waiting for the next meltdown in U.S. stocks or in commodities, you may want to get over it. After several false dawns following the global financial crisis, more investors are starting to believe the current rally in stocks, commodities and emerging markets could be a long-lasting one. The S&P 500 .SPX closed above 1,400 points last week for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis. Investors piled into U.S. equity funds, with the biggest weekly inflows since mid-September. "Is this risk rally for real? I think the answer to that question is yes, but it's not a straight line up," said Art Steinmetz, chief investment officer at Oppenheimer Funds in New York, managing more than $177 billion in assets. Oppenheimer is currently betting on stocks tied to ...

Forex News and Events: Asian session was subdued with G10 flows unexceptional. EURUSD bounced around 1.2752 to 1.2807 while AUDUSD made a steady climb to 1.0413 (short of 200d ma) before dropping sharply. Traders will focus on Greek PSI issue as talks are expected to resume today. China headlines once against dominated a quiet session a china official stated support of smaller banks in targeting RRR for Guizhou banks. However, Guizhou is not an industrial center and effect will have limited consequence. Overall, FX market seems to have embraced the feel good story of the week, rewarding it with a strong risk rally. Chinese growth, which came in better than expected, but still at a low, combined with German data sent stocks and correlated risky assets soaring. But in our mind this is ...

The Week Ahead Highlights Never-ending Greek drama What the central banks didn't do Charts suggesting risk assets may take a dive soon Never-ending Greek drama The week draws to a close with a vote of confidence pending in the Greek parliament around 6 pm EDT/midnight Athens time. In the worst case scenario, if the vote fails, the ruling PASOK party would be forced to engage the opposition New Democrat Party in negotiations to form a coalition government. If the parties are unable to reach agreement, which is not at all certain, snap elections would ensue in three weeks' time under Greek law, leaving the country without a government to formally accept the terms of the EU/IMF bailout package agreed to on Oct. 26. (Possibly a caretaker/national unity government could be ...

The sentiment continues to be revolved around the debt crisis and the pledges to contain the crisis, especially after EC President presented a roadmap to contain the crisis including helping Greece and supporting banks recapitalize. Investors started to react beyond the echoed promises and returned to focus on the fundamentals in hand awaiting a final and detailed plan to emerge from Europe. For this week, leaders assured their commitment to solve the crisis, the EFSF new powers were completely ratified after the second vote from Slovakia and now the global finance chiefs of the G20 are likely to shed more focus on the measures Europe plans to take to ensure the stability of the global financial system. We gradually see rationality returns to markets as investors exit the state of ...

(Reuters) - Stocks will take their cues from the oil market this week as unrest rumbles through the Middle East. But so far equity investors are sanguine, believing the economic recovery wins the day. Sentiment is driving large daily swings as traders vacillate between the fear that oil prices will hit consumers and derail the recovery, and the euphoria that the U.S. labor market is turning a corner. Reports of escalated fighting in Libya and protests in Bahrain, Yemen and top oil-exporter Saudi Arabia rattled investors on Friday -- oil rose, equities fell. "We are in such a sentiment-driven market right now and everyone is watching the equity market with one eye and oil and commodity markets with the other," said Michael James, a senior trader at Wedbush Morgan in Los Angeles. SHIFT ...

Yesterday’s EU/IMF $1 trillion reaction sent risky assets into orbit. Spain’s stock exchange rose 14.4%, Greece’s 2 yr debt dropped below 5% and the EURUSD briefly traded up to 1.3089. But like the morning after a long night of partying, investors seem to be regretting yesterday’s buying frenzy. The bailout package is being viewed today by the numbers and not emotions. As we suspected, investors are realizing the bailout is adequate to address the short-term problems of Greece & Co., but the long term implications remain unclear. Economists are highlighting the fact that the cost of the bailout is not only financial – the austerity measures must hinder EU growth in the future and in essence will further saddle debt-burdened nations with you guessed it, even more debt. In addition, the ...

In the last 24 hours, it feels like worries over Greece have faded into the background. Dovish testimony by Bernanke, debate over CNY revaluation, strong commodity prices, corporate earnings and news that conservatives have a clear lead over Labour in the UK election have provided pundits with plenty of fodder. With participants looking in other directions, the EURUSD has able to find some temporary breathing room. For us now, is exactly the time to look back towards Greece. While out base scenario is that the EU / IMF rescue package will be enough, in the midterm, (combined with extreme short Euro positioning) to appease the market and halt the EUR selling, there are still considerable questions/concerns which could spoil the party. As always with Greek focused rescue package the most ...