Markets Consolidate Before The End

MORNING BRIEFING: Negative outlook in EU sends EUR/USD to new 2012 lows What’s new: Asia: Japanese CPI in line with expectations. Risk mixed overnight. EUR/JPY consolidates below 100. United States: Soft core durables send GDP forecasts down. USD gaining against most peers Europe: Decent indices, but Euro selling off. Still focus on Greece and the lack of progress. Rates in Asia and Indices: EUR/USD 1.2519 1.2561 0.21 % USD/CHF 0.9567 0.9606 0.16 % GBP/USD 1.5648 1.5676 -0.00 % USD/JPY 79.54 79.82 -0.06 % EUR/CHF 1.2012 1.20375 -0.03 % EUR/JPY 99.73 100.06 -0.25 % Dow Jones 12419.63 12539.59 0.26 % Nasdaq 2512.35 2554.2 ...

(Reuters) - The euro wallowed at two-year lows against the dollar on Friday and was poised to end the week two percent weaker, weighed down by weak German manufacturing data and worries about a messy Greek exit from the euro zone. The risk-sensitive Australian dollar dipped 0.2 percent to $0.9741, coming close to the six-month low of $0.9690 hit on Wednesday as a sell-off in emerging market currencies picked up steam. Rattled by worries over lack of growth in the euro area, the fragile situation of the region's banking system and a potential messy Greek exit from the single currency bloc, the euro is poised to chalk up its biggest weekly loss since the first week of April. Macro funds and real money investors have ramped up selling of the currency, which is now down more than 5 percent ...

The Week Ahead Highlights Europe steps closer to the cliff edge Can the USD extend its rally? Bank of Japan may extend maturity of its bond buys Pricing in more QE from the Bank of England Europe steps closer to the cliff edge It was a pivotal week for the Eurozone after Greece announced that it was heading back to the polls after the top three parities failed to form a coalition government. So now Greece is leaderless, there is a caretaker government in place but it won't be able to enforce the austerity required to get the next tranche of bailout funds necessary for Greece to avoid running out of money in July. So as time runs out for Greece the European authorities have been clear: the upcoming election is a referendum on euro-membership. Either vote for pro bailout ...

The euro rose from a four-month low against the dollar on Friday as investors pared bets against the single currency after a 4 percent drop this month, but concerns about Greece and Spain were likely to keep it under pressure. Despite Friday's gains, investors preferred the relative safety of the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen. They were reluctant to increase risk exposure after Moody's cut the credit ratings of 16 Spanish banks on Thursday. With no U.S. data to drive foreign exchange markets, investors are most likely to consolidate positions ahead of the weekend following days of euro losses. "The biggest risk today is position squaring into the weekend; however there appears to be increasing evidence that the euro is likely to move lower in the days ahead," said Camilla Sutton, ...

Fundamental Analysis EUR "We expect euro-region inflation to normalize in 2013" - Michael Schubert, an economist at Commerzbank AG Inflation in the seventeen nation bloc eased to 2.6 per cent in March from 2.7 per cent the previous month, said the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg on Wednesday. USD "Uncertainty about Greece and the effects a potential exit out of the euro would have on Europe, the global economy and the financial system in general is driving investors out of stocks into safe havens" - Markus Huber, head of German sales trading at ETX Capital The Standard & Poor's 500 lost 0.44%, or 5.86 points, to 1,324.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by 0.26%, or 33.45 points, to 12,598.55. GBP Unemployment figures are a "welcome step in the right ...

Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis EUR Stoxx Europe 600 index have dropped for third consecutive day and reached the lowest level since the start of this year as specialists speculate that elections in Greece could take place as early as 10 of June. The index lost 0.5% of its value by noon in London and around 10% from its peak this year in mid-March. USD Facebook increases the share offering by 25% to 421.2M shares to collect near $16B. At the offering's price of $34-$38 per share Facebook is rushing towards the largest technology IPO in the history. Production of utilities, mines and factory's in the U.S. surpassed expected 0.6% level and increased by 1.1% in April. GBP The number of unemployed people for January-March decreased to 2.63 million, 45,000 down on the quarter, the Office for ...

Fundamental Analysis EUR "Germany is holding up the rest of the euro zone”" - Nick Kounis, head of macroeconomic research at ABN Amro Germany helped the Eurozone avoid its second recession in three years. Overall gross domestic product stagnated in the first three months of 2012, compared to the previous quarter, Eurostat data showed on Tuesday. USD "There’s a lot of slack in the economy" - Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James & Associates Inc. Inflation in the U.S. stagnated in April, restrained by a decline in energy costs. The core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy costs, rose 0.2 per cent, showed Bureau of Labor Statistics data on Tuesday. GBP "March's UK trade figures showed a bit of an improvement, although the external sector still looks likely to ...

Fundamental Analysis EUR "Industrial producion is a imely reminder that firstquarter GDP will likely show a contracion." - Marin van Vliet, an economist at ING Industrial producion in the Eurozone contracted unexpectedly in March, Eurostat data showed on Monday. Producion fell 0.3 per cent from February, when it rose 0.8 per cent. USD "The fear factor is definitely higher." - Madelynn Matlock, a fund manager at Hunington Asset Advisor U.S. stocks retreated on Monday on a poliical impasse in Greece. GBP "I can’t see even after the next Greek election a government appearing that will be able to do anything else than perhaps manage the Greek exit." - Simon Sole, chief execuive officer of Exclusive Analysis Ltd. U.K. stocks tumbled on Monday. The benchmark FTSE 100 Index fell 1.97%, or ...

The Week Ahead ■The Bank of England's next move ■Is this the beginning of the end for the Eurozone? ■Fed officials reluctant to signal more easing ■Broader risk environment outweighs Japanese rhetoric The Bank of England's next move The BOE kept rates on hold when it concluded its May meeting last week; it also allowed the asset purchase program to come to an end. Since the UK slipped back into recession in Q1 2012 and the growth figures at the start of the second quarter have continued to look weak, the decision to hold interest rates was mostly down to the sticky outlook for inflation. The attention now turns to Wednesday's Inflation Report. The focus will be on the Bank's growth and inflation forecasts. The growth forecasts are likely to be revised lower. Even ...