Markets Are Expecting A Bounce

Fundamental Analysis EUR "The rally is mostly technically driven after we became quite oversold last week." - Raimund Saxinger, a fund manager at Trust Investment GmbH European stocks rose by the most in a month on Tuesday. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index gained 1.91 per cent to 244.76. Germany’s DAX Index edged higher 1.65 per cent and France’s CAC 40 Index added 1.88 per cent. The U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index rose 1.86 per cent to 5,403.28 USD "People are becoming more confident about job prospects and about taking on mortgages." - Millan Mulraine, a senior U.S. strategist at TD Securities Inc. U.S. existing home sales rose in April to an annual rate of 4.62 million from 4.47 million in March, said the National Association of Realtors. GBP "These figures give the Monetary Policy Committee ...

Fundamental Analysis EUR "Inevitably there is going to be an element of bargain hunting as investors look to top up their holdings on the basis of slightly lower prices" - Richard Hunter, head of equities at Hargreaves Lansdown Stockbrokers European stocks edged higher on Monday on China’s pledge to boost growth. USD "Equity prices have gotten oversold" - Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist for Janney Montgomery Scott LLC U.S. equity market edged higher on Monday on China stimulus hopes and after German and French officials said they would cooperate to keep Greece in the monetary union. GBP "Obviously, as the euro depreciates, the U.K. gets slightly more expensive" - Miles Shipside, Rightmove commercial director U.K. national house prices stagnated in March, announced the ...

U.S. Review To QE3 or Not To QE3: That is the Question - Some market participants are beginning to speculate about another round of quantitative easing. Although recent growth indicators have not been particularly stellar, the economy is still growing. Moreover, core CPI inflation in the neighborhood of 2 percent means that the threshold for more QE is relatively high. - Overall, indicators were positive during the week. Housing starts increased by 2.6 percent in April, the Empire Manufacturing index improved to 17.09 in May from a 6.56 print in April and retail sales printed a 0.1 percent increase in April, in line with expectations. To QE3 or Not To QE3: That is the Question QE3 seems to have more lives that a cat; it comes back into the forefront of the U.S. economy discussion ...

The Weekly Bottom Line : 19/05/2012 HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK United States - Global economic concerns ratcheted up this week. Widespread discussion of a Greek exit continued, Spanish banks faced rating downgrades and periphery sovereign debt yields moved higher. - Financial markets have responded to these global worries with increased risk aversion. The S&P is poised to end the week 3% lower, and 10-year treasuries are yielding just 1.7%. - U.S. economic data has proved somewhat more encouraging, but growth is still struggling to breakout beyond a moderate pace. This has kept the possibility of additional monetary stimulus alive even if the threshold remains quite high. Canada - Recent economic indicators are showing a resurgence of strength in the Canadian economy. Strong ...

Forex News and Events: In a race for downgrades, rating agencies took action targeting the two most burdened countries in the EMU. Moody’s confirmed today a rumor about the downgrade of 16 Spanish banks after having downgraded four Spanish regions, which added more pressure to the the Spanish economy. The increase in risk was reflected by 4-year Spanish Bonos yields, higher at 5.106% against a previous 4.319%. Fitch took over the Greek front by downgrading the country to CCC, adding that all EU countries would be on “Rating Watch Negative” if no pro-bailout government were formed following the elections on June 17. What’s more, while Greek banks are struggling for liquidity from EUR 700mn withdrawals since the elections and Greek central bank governor Provopoulos expecting EUR 100mn more, ...

Fundamental Analysis EUR "Spain, once again, is where the confidence game is played" - Sebastian Paris Horvitz, strategist at HSBC Private Bank Suisse Spain sold the maximum targeted amount of debt, 2.5 billion euros, during yesterday’s auction with spiking borrowing costs. The interest rate of three-year bonds rose to 4.373% from April’s figure of 2.89% while interest rate of five-year bonds surged to 5.106% from 3.374 in March. USD "What we’re seeing in foreign-exchange markets is strong demand for the U.S. dollar" - Steven Saywell, head of foreign-exchange strategy for Europe at BNP Paribas SA Latest US initial unemployment claim data was released yesterday – 370 000 Americans demanded their jobless benefits last week versus a 368 000 consensus forecast. The Labor Department revised ...

Fundamental Analysis EUR "We expect euro-region inflation to normalize in 2013" - Michael Schubert, an economist at Commerzbank AG Inflation in the seventeen nation bloc eased to 2.6 per cent in March from 2.7 per cent the previous month, said the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg on Wednesday. USD "Uncertainty about Greece and the effects a potential exit out of the euro would have on Europe, the global economy and the financial system in general is driving investors out of stocks into safe havens" - Markus Huber, head of German sales trading at ETX Capital The Standard & Poor's 500 lost 0.44%, or 5.86 points, to 1,324.80. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by 0.26%, or 33.45 points, to 12,598.55. GBP Unemployment figures are a "welcome step in the right ...

Forex News and Events: The S&P GSCI Index reversed its 2011 gains in the last six consecutive trading sessions. As a matter of fact, the index tracking 24 commodities broke down 7.6% from a high of 684.15 on April 30th to a more than four-month low low of 634.25 during yesterday’s trade session. This downturn in commodity prices can be explained on the one hand by headlines from the Euro area, as markets seem to be pricing in a second round of elections in Greece as well as a probable EU exit. On the other hand, the marked slowdown of commodity-intensive economies such as China -see Newsletter May 14- pushed prices lower in light of atrophied demand and lower infrastructure investments. From the foreign exchange perspective, the Australian dollar having experienced a 34% appreciation ...

Fundamental Analysis EUR "The debt crisis is far from over still and I think Spain will be worse before it gets better" - Henrik Drusebjerg, a senior equity strategist at Nordea Bank AB The seasonally adjusted current account of the euro zone swung a deficit of €1.3 billion in February from a surplus of €3.7 billion in January, said the European Central Bank on Wednesday. USD "We got used to companies beating estimates by a pretty good margin" - Burt White, chief investment officer at LPL Financial Corp. U.S. stocks fell after Intel Corp. and International Business Machines Corp. disappointed market participants with their quarterly results. GBP "… the monetary policy committee is likely to remain on hold on the stock of asset purchases at its May meeting" - Mauro Giorgio Marrano, an ...