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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 28/03/2012
Dukascopy Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
"The euro area’s debt crisis is “almost over"
- Italian Prime Minister Mario Moni (based on Bloomberg)
The pair is attempting to advance further and it is likely to test the 7-month high at 1.3457.
EUR/JPY
"The yen move is driven by supply and demand before the final exchange-rate fixing of the fiscal year. I think we’ll start to see some rise in demand to buy JPY"
- Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. (based on Bloomberg)
EUR/JPY is holding bullish impetus while recovering from the 20-day average at 108.97.
GBP/USD
"Tesing that level is very much on the cards, but having said that, front-end sterling rates are pushing lower this morning and this could be having a bearing on the currency"
- Lloyds TSB (based on Reuters)
GBP/USD has successfully tested the ...
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Stocks slip from 2012 high, Italy auction weighs
World stocks slipped from a 2012 high hit earlier in the session while the dollar fell to a four-week low on Tuesday after the Federal Reserve signaled it would keep monetary policy ultra-loose to support growth in the world's biggest economy.
Trading in government debt was mixed, with expectations that euro zone finance ministers will agree a bigger crisis firewall this week boosting the bloc's periphery, but signs of weakness in an Italian auction put its bonds under pressure.
MSCI's main global stock index was up 0.36 percent at 337.15, having earlier hit 338.28, its highest since August last year. .MIWD00000PUS.
"There is the perception that monetary policy staying lower for longer will provide liquidity to the markets," Ian King, head of international equities at Legal & General, ...
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Bernanke’s commentaries weaken USD
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK at 0800 GMT (EDT +0400)
WORLD
Those hoping for less dovish commentary from Fed Chair Bernanke were mostly disappointed. Although he acknowledged the recent “genuine improvement” in the labour market, he again emphasised that the situation is still “far from normal”. What hurt the dollar most was Bernanke’s view that “continued accommodative policies” could help boost employment. This is a marvelously vague remark and open to interpretation. While it does not endorse the market’s recent decision to price in a rate hike as soon as in late 2013, it does not rule it out either. Furthermore, as our US economists point out, “continued” accommodation does not mean additional accommodation. As such, Bernanke was non-committal about the possible need for further asset ...
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Analysis: Yen could drop further as carry trade picks up steam
Spiking U.S. bond yields and super-loose Japanese monetary policy are reviving the yen carry trade, which could spell more weakness in the currency after its biggest two-month drop in three years.
The yen was last in vogue as a cheap global funding vehicle for buying higher-yielding assets in 2005-2008, before the global financial crisis sent investors fleeing to the exits.
Now with a global economic recovery slowly picking up steam and Europe's debt crisis seemingly off the boil, traders are again looking to sell the low-interest rate yen to raise cash for forays into riskier and more rewarding assets.
With U.S.-Japan interest rate differentials narrow until mid-March and geopolitical risks troubling investors, many investors were skeptical the yen carry trade would make a comeback for ...
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Gloomy housing week for the superpower…
This week had its eyes chiefly on the world's leading economy housing sector as data released was for the most part regarding this market current performance and revealed accordingly to us to which extent the housing sector remains far from a full recovery as its activities remain week regardless of previous signs of improvement witnessed throughout the sector having overall data released coming in gloomy and worse than forecasted.
In fact we watched on one hand the country's housing starts; beginning of the foundation of homes, plummeting in February from a three-year high to 698 thousand or by 1.1 percent from a prior revised reading of 706 thousand or a prior incline of 3.7 percent, which is also much below the market projections of 700 thousand or - 1.1 percent.
And even as we zoom ...
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Euro rises to 3-week high, may pull back next week
(Reuters) - The euro climbed to a three-week peak against the dollar on Friday as concerns about a slowdown in the euro zone ebbed, but the euro could reverse gains next week as bond auctions in Spain and Italy draw scrutiny.
Any sign of eroding confidence in the bonds of these peripheral countries could undermine the euro. Economic data from Germany and a meeting of European finance ministers will also be key events for the week.
"We think euro/dollar is headed lower," said Aroop Chatterjee, currency strategist at Barclays Capital in New York. "European economic data continues to be lackluster. We saw a snapback in data earlier this year, but it's been primarily sentiment-driven.
"The euro appears to be stuck in a trading range and our house view is that it would go gradually lower to $ ...
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Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 23/03/2012
Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary
U.S. Review
Housing Indicators Pulled Back, but Don't Be Alarmed
This week, the economic calendar was chock-full of housing market data. While housing indicators painted somewhat of a mixed picture, with nearly all housing market indicators unexpectedly declining on the month, we continue to see real improvement. That said, much of the pullback was due to the mild winter, which likely exacerbated the seasonal adjustment process.
Housing starts unexpectedly fell 1.1 percent to a 698,000-unit pace in February. January starts, however, were upwardly revised to a 706,000-unit pace, the highest level since October 2008.
Housing Indicators Pulled back, but Don't Be Alarmed
This week the economic calendar was chock-full of housing market data. ...
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Euro hits 3-week high vs dollar; Aussie steadies
(Reuters) - The euro rose to a three-week high against the dollar on Friday after three straight days of losses while the Australian dollar stabilized from its recent plunge as concerns over a slowdown in China and the euro zone eased slightly.
Despite the dollar's weakness it remains supported by an improving economic landscape in the United States that contrasts starkly with other countries across the Atlantic that are teetering on the brink of recession or actually in one.
New U.S. home sales data on Friday backed the view the housing sector is on a stable path to recovery.
"This could probably be position-squaring in euro/dollar after the selling we had seen the last few days," said Brian Kim, currency strategist, at Royal Bank of Scotland in Stamford, Connecticut.
"There has ...
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Euro gains but obstacles abound; Aussie steadies
(Reuters) - The euro rose to a three-week high against the dollar on Friday after three straight days of losses while the Australian dollar stabilized from its recent plunge as concerns over a slowdown in China and the euro zone eased slightly.
The dollar slipped to a three-week low versus the euro in the overnight session and plumbed a two-week trough against a basket of currencies .DXY.
The dollar remains supported by an improving economic landscape in the United States that contrasts starkly with other countries across the Atlantic that are either teetering on the brink of a recession or are actually in one.
U.S. new home sales fell 1.6 percent last months, but a rise in house prices to their highest in eight months backed the view that the sector is on a stable path to recovery.
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