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Weekly Focus: Weak Data Expected to Trigger Policy Response
Weekly Focus: Weak Data Expected to Trigger Policy Response
Market Movers ahead
- US non-farm payrolls are expected to rebound to 170K.
- We expect the manufacturing ISM index for May to weaken somewhat.
- The result of the Irish referendum on fiscal compact will most likely be a 'Yes'.
- In China focus will be on the release of the NBS manufacturing PMI.
Global Update
- Deteriorating PMIs and IFO signal that core Europe is in recession as well.
- EU summit produced few new details. Growth compact set to be endorsed in June.
- Greek polls suggest close run between Syriza and New Democracy.
- First release of US flash PMI showed a deterioration of economic conditions.
- The US housing market is a source of good news.
- Weak Chinese data are expected to ...
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U.S. again shies from calling China FX manipulator
(Reuters) - The United States on Friday declined to name China a currency manipulator but vowed to press the Asian economic power to allow its yuan currency to appreciate more against the dollar.
Some U.S. politicians have argued China has gained an unfair competitive edge in global markets by keeping the yuan artificially low to boost exports. American manufacturers say imports from China cost the United States jobs.
"Available evidence suggests the RMB (yuan) remains significantly undervalued," the U.S. Treasury said in a statement, saying it would "press for policy changes that yield greater exchange rate flexibility."
However, the Treasury again shied away from taking the more serious step of labeling China a currency manipulator, saying the statutes covering such a designation " ...
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Euro falls to near two-year low as Greece, Spain weigh
(Reuters) - The euro tumbled to nearly two-year lows against the dollar on Friday, and remained on track for its worst weekly showing in five months, rattled by fears of a possible Greek exit from the euro zone and the risk other debt-plagued countries could also leave the regional bloc.
A plea from Spain's wealthiest autonomous region, Catalonia, for help from the central government to refinance its debt this year became the latest headline to hit the euro.
Catalonia's appeal affected almost all asset classes as Spanish and Italian bonds sold off, equities fell, and U.S. crude futures turned negative.
"The Catalonia news was a big deal because it implies that the Spanish government may have to take on more debt and it cannot afford to do so," said Richard Franulovich, senior currency ...
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Gold is volatile, yet positively biased after CME announcement
Gold advanced today, recovering some of the losses incurred during the week, where the metal benefited from the announcement of the CME Group of raising margins, the thing that made the metal more attractive for investors as they have to put less to hold the safe haven gold.
Commodity Trade Exchange Group (CME) announced yesterday after the regular session closing that it has slashed the margin requirements for gold contracts by 10%, where the initial margin for the 100-ounce of gold contracts from one to four months will slump to $9,113 from $10,125.
The second reduction this year comes as a part of the normal view of the Group which takes into consideration the latest trading conditions, following the several increases when the metal reached the peak above the $1900.00 levels.
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Majors back-off as the day progresses
With the lack of economic releases; markets held pretty well near major intraday resistance levels befo re losing the strength as the day progressed.
The EUR/USD was trading near 1.2600 this morning, before getting sold off sharply to resume the expected downside direction and printed new low at 1.2495. Stochastic is providing strong exhaustion signs, thus as we approach the weekend it’s preferred to be neutral on the pair for the rest of the day. The main expected next support level at 1.2475, while to the upside 1.2600-1.2640 is the key area to watch.
The GBP/USD tested 1.5630 support, after breaking the latest low at 1.5730 to continue the bearish trend. A strong support is expected among 1.5630-1.5600 area, as further downside below shall extend the bearish trend dramatically. ...
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Crude steady around $90.50 as uncertainties persist
Crude oil is seen steady around the $90.50 with some downside momentum, as global uncertainties persist. On one hand the global economic growth is seen slowing, while on the other hand talks with Iran reached an impasse.
One day after China reported lackluster data from the manufacturing sector, China’s largest banks may miss their lending targets for the first time in seven years, adding to signs that China, the world’s second oil consumer, is slowing.
Demand on oil is also seen dropping as Europe’s debt crisis persists. Investors fear from the impact of Greece`s possible exit from the euro zone threatening growth, and darkening the outlook for demand on commodities.
The grim global economic outlook, Europe’s crisis and the light trading ahead of a long weekend, as US markets will be ...
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USD Softer ahead of Holiday Weekend
The dollar is giving back some of its recent gains as traders cover positions ahead of the holiday weekend and after the market failed to break the 1.25 downside barrier in EUR/USD. Sentiment is relatively stable with global equities trading flat to slightly softer, EU sovereign yield spreads have eased somewhat, and the dollar index is lower and testing the 82.00 figure after making new highs for the current rally. Uncertainty remains high as markets lack clarity on key European issues and barring any new headlines, today's price action may be driven by position squaring ahead of the long weekend.
The Swiss franc was on the move earlier with EUR/CHF rising sharply on speculation of possible fees on SNB deposits. Swiss officials declined to comment and the franc regained ground after the ...
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An unchanged confidence is projected for the U.S
The present recovery of the superpower remains moderate and on track with mixed sentiments so far spread this week on a local and global scale regarding the companies` orders, housing activities and Greece, yet no true change has been witnessed and therefore most probably later on the day we will watch an unchanged confidence for this month.
In fact later on the day we will watch the University of Michigan Confidence final reading of this month released and highly projected by the market to come in unchanged at 77.8, indicating clearly that consumer confidence regarding personal finances, business conditions and purchasing power.
No wonder that yesterday we had the Commerce Department showing us that the demand for business equipment in the U.S plunged in April as companies across the U. ...
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Euro off near two-year lows, outlook still bleak
(Reuters) - The euro inched up from two-year lows against the dollar on Friday as bearish investors took a breather from a sharp sell-off this week, but worries about a possible Greek exit from the euro zone and the risk of contagion could make gains fleeting.
The euro traded 0.4 percent higher on the day at $1.2581, pulling away from $1.25155, the lowest level since July 2010 that was hit the day before. Traders cited a reported option barrier at $1.2500 that could check losses with offers around $1.2600 and stop-loss orders above $1.2620.
Despite the bounce, the common currency has lost more than 5 percent against the dollar so far this month and is on track for its fourth straight week of losses, raising the possibility of a test of the 2010 low of $1.1875.
Macro funds and ...
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