Market Movers Ahead

Weekly Focus: Weak Data Expected to Trigger Policy Response Market Movers ahead - US non-farm payrolls are expected to rebound to 170K. - We expect the manufacturing ISM index for May to weaken somewhat. - The result of the Irish referendum on fiscal compact will most likely be a 'Yes'. - In China focus will be on the release of the NBS manufacturing PMI. Global Update - Deteriorating PMIs and IFO signal that core Europe is in recession as well. - EU summit produced few new details. Growth compact set to be endorsed in June. - Greek polls suggest close run between Syriza and New Democracy. - First release of US flash PMI showed a deterioration of economic conditions. - The US housing market is a source of good news. - Weak Chinese data are expected to ...

Markets eye whether BOE extends its Asset Purchase Program later today; Greece continues to struggle to form new gov't Economic Data (RU) Russia Central Bank (CBR) left Refinancing Rate unchanged at 8.00%, as expected (ID) Indonesia Central Bank left Reference Rate unchanged at 5.75%, as expected (FI) Finland Mar Industrial Production M/M: -1.5% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: -5.7% v -2.2%e (FR) Bank of France Apr Business Sentiment: 95 v 95e (FR) France Mar Industrial Production M/M: -0.9% v -0.6%e; Y/Y: -0.9% v -1.3%e (FR) France Mar Manufacturing Production M/M:+1.4% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: -0.3% v -2.8%e (FR) France Mar Central Govt. Balance: -€29.4B v -€24.2B prior (ES) Spain Mar House transactions Y/Y: -22.7% v -31.8% prior (CZ) Czech Apr CPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 3.5% v 3.6%e (CZ) Czech Mar ...

Major European Services PMI again disappoints; Focus now on US April Non-Farm Payroll report Economic Data (EU) ECB: €983M borrowed in overnight loan facility v €638M prior; €805.7B parked in deposit facility v €803.1B prior (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply (RUB): 6.90T v 6.91T prior (SE) Sweden Apr Services PMI: 48.6 v 52.6 prior (First contraction since Nov) (ES) Spain Apr Net Unemployment M/M: -6.6K v -15.0Ke (UK) Apr Halifax House Prices M/M: -2.4% v -0.8%e; 3M/Y: -0.5% v +0.4%e (ES) Spain Apr Services PMI: 42.1 v 45.4e (10th straight of contraction) (CH) Swiss Mar Real Retail Sales Y/Y: 4.2% v 1.1%e (SE) Sweden Mar Service Production M/M: 0.9% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 2.8% v 1.5%e (IT) Italy Apr PMI Services: 42.3 v 43.7e (FR) France Apr Final PMI Services: 45.2 v 46.4e (DE) ...

Market Movers ahead - Focus at the beginning of next week is likely to centre on the outcome of this weekend's elections in Greece and France. - We expect growth in Chinese industrial production to have accelerated in March, suggesting economic growth is now close to trend. - Bad weather has kept vegetable prices elevated in China. Thus we only expect a marginal decline in Chinese CPI inflation for April to 3.5% y/y next week. - We expect Norges Bank to keep the policy rate unchanged at 1.50% at its rate setting meeting on Thursday. - Swedish industrial production is expected to have rebounded in March, while inflationary pressure will probably have decreased in April. Global Update - The US ISM manufacturing index surprised on the upside, rising to 54.8 in April from ...

Markets focus to see whether the ECB paves the way for further easing Economic Data (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e Apr 27th: $523.3B v $519.5B prior (IN) India Apr Markit Services PMI: 52.8 v 52.3 prior (UK) Apr Nationwide House Prices M/M: -0.2% v +0.5%e; Y/Y: -0.9% v -0.3%e (IE) Ireland Apr NCB Services PMI: 52.2 v 52.1 prior (CH) Swiss Q1 UBS Real Estate Bubble Index: 0.95 v 0.80 prior (HU) Hungary Feb Final Trade Balance: €691.2M v €690.1M prelim (TR) Turkey Apr Consumer Prices M/M: 1.5% v 1.4%e; Y/Y: 11.1% v 11.0%e; Core CPI Y/Y: 0.1% v 7.9% prior (TR) Turkey Apr Producer Prices M/M: 0.1 v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 7.7% v 8.2% prior (BR) Brazil Apr FIPE CPI: 0.5% v 0.2% prior (UK) Apr PMI Services: 53.3 v 54.1e (HK) Hong Kong Mar Retail Sales Value Y/Y: 17.3% v 14.0%e; Retail Sales ...

Major European PMI Manufacturing data disappoints; Weak German jobs data blamed on Easter holiday Economic Data (EU) ECB: €606M borrowed in overnight loan facility v €619M prior; €789.3B parked in deposit facility v €794.0B prior (Monday) (IN) India Apr Markit Manufacturing PMI: 54.9 v 54.7 prior (DE) Germany Mar ILO Employment (Seasonally Adj): 41.459 v 41.406M prior; Unemployment Rate: 5.6% v 5.6% prior (SE) Sweden Apr Swedbank PMI Survey: 50.2 v 50.5e (PL) Poland Apr Manufacturing PMI: 49.2 v 49.5e (HU) Hungary Mar Producer Prices M/M: +0.2% v -1.3% prior; Y/Y: 6.4% v 6.7%e (NO) Norway Apr PMI: 53.7 v 57.0e (TR) Turkey Apr Manufacturing PMI: 52.3 v 49.6 prior (ES) Spain Apr Manufacturing PMI: 43.5 v 43.6e (three-year low) (TH) Thailand Central Bank leaves Benchmark Interest Rate ...

Weekly Focus: Austerity or Growth? Market movers ahead The two main market movers are the US data releases, ISM manufacturing and non-farm payrolls. We see downside risks attached to both numbers. Seasonal distortions and the payback from mild weather are likely to weigh on the data. In China PMI data from NBS is likely to attract attention. The ECB is likely to stay sidelined at the coming week's meeting and leave the ball with EU leaders to fight the crisis. ata for Spanish GDP and PMI for Spain and Italy are likely to be weak and keep the focus on the harsh effects of austerity. In the UK the PMI is the last key data before the Monetary Policy Committee meeting on 10 May. Global update The Fed meeting sent mixed signals, as members moved forward their rate ...

Market movers ahead US growth was probably a little on the low side in Q1, which we expect to be reflected in the week's press conference with Ben Bernanke, who is likely to continue to downplay the growth outlook but is still some way from announcing further easing.  The Bank of Japan, on the other hand, may do just that. There is a good chance of rising PMIs in the euro area after three months of moving sideways. The first round of the French presidential elections is unlikely to tell us much.  A raft of important data is set to shed light on the Swedish economy's performance this spring and so the outlook for interest rates. Global update Despite some relatively successful debt auctions, there are growing concerns about public finances, especially ...

Spain's bond auction demand was overly sufficient but yields were mixed Economic Data (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e Apr 13th: $518.8B v $516.7B prior (DK) Denmark Apr Consumer Confidence: +0.6 v +1.5e (HU) Hungary Feb Avg Gross Wages Y/Y: 6.9% v 6.0%e (NL) Netherlands Mar Unemployment Rate: 5.9% v 5.9% prior (PH) Philippines Mar Balance of Payments: -$209.0M v +$588M prior (GR) Greece Feb Current Account: -€1.1B v -€1.5B prior (IT) Italy Feb Industrial Orders M/M: -2.5% v -1.1%e; Y/Y: -13.2% v -6.2%e (IT) Italy Feb Industrial Sales M/M: +2.3% v -4.9% prior; Y/Y: -1.5% v -4.4% prior (PH) Philippines Central Bank left its Overnight Borrowing Rate unchanged at 4.00%; as expected (HK) Hong Kong Mar Unemployment Rate: 3.4% v 3.5%e Fixed Income (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold ...