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Market Drivers - Currencies : 25/05/2012
Market Drivers - Currencies
Today's Comment
As there are no major items on today's agenda, the markedly weaker-than-expected PMI data from Europe and China (as well as lower-than-expected IFO figures from Germany) published yesterday will undoubtedly show repercussions in Friday's market. Ironically, the equity market and commodity market did not show any considerable negative reactions to the news yesterday. The reason for this is most likely a fairly simple one – the weak economic indicators will increase the likelihood of a central bank intervention – lower interest rates – more QE, fiscal stimuli from China, etc. – and that will be to the liking of risky assets as they have become almost dependent on such measures to maintain the current levels. The poor PMI data signal that the ...
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Euro hits 21-month low versus dollar before EU summit
(Reuters) - The euro hit a 21-month low against the dollar on Wednesday ahead of an EU meeting later, with investors doubtful that leaders would come up with measures to stem the euro zone debt crisis.
An informal EU summit is expected to discuss growth-boosting measures but was not expected to produce any plan that would restore optimism among investors, especially given Germany remains strongly opposed to joint euro bonds.
The euro fell to $1.2615, dropping below the 2012 low of $1.2624 set in January to mark its lowest since August 2010.
Fears that Greece may have to leave the euro grew after Dow Jones earlier quoted former prime minister Lucas Papademos as saying Greece had no choice but to stick with a painful austerity program or face a damaging exit from the euro zone.
However, ...
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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 21/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"Fears of a Greek exit from the euro zone and the negative consequences from that are prevailing"
- Ben Kwong, KGI Asia
European stocks edged lower after Fitch downgraded Greece’s credit rating to ‘CCC’, implying that the country is vulnerable and highly dependent on favourable economic conditions to fulfill its financial obligations.
USD
"If there were scope to do another twist of some type it would be prudent to consider it, especially in the scenario where things are worse and the Fed feels like it needs to move"
- Nathan Sheets, Citigroup Inc.
Fed policymakers might potentially launch another round of Operation Twist rather than a direct asset purchases in case of increased risks or further weakening of the US economy.
GBP
"We must work together to give ...
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Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 05/18/2012
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
Moody's reduced credit rating of 16 Span's banks, citing a rise in bad debts in the country's financial sector and overall deterioration of the economic environment. The decision came after shares of Bankia lost another 14%. The largest banks such as Banco Santander and BBVA were downgraded while ten out of 17 banks were put on negative watch, implying that further credit rating cuts are possible.
USD
As the U.S. dollar gets stronger, investors are concerned that aggravating debt crisis in Europe will reduce demand for oil. Therefore, oil shows decline for a third week. Crude oil lost 25 cents yesterday and reached the 6-month low of $92.56. Brent oil for July delivery slid 0.5 percent to finish at $106.99.
GBP
Following a downgrade of 16 Spanish banks, ...
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Speculation On Grexit Continues To Hammer The Euro
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Fixed Income: Global core bonds profit from euro debt crisis
- Concerns about Greece and Spain underpinned the ongoing rally of global core bonds. The German 10-year yield fell below 1.50%. Intra-EMU yield spreads versus Germany widened substantially. Today, the eco calendar is enticing. If no euro debt crisis news acts as a circuit breaker, the eco data may for once drive the price action.
- Currencies: Speculation on Grexit continues to hammer the euro.
- At the start of the new trading week, the Greek crisis remained the key factor for currency trading. With no visibility on the outcome of the EMU crisis, the easiest way for the euro is south. EUR/USD set a new correction low. EUR/GBP dropped below the 0.8000. This morning, strong German ...
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Another bloody day for Crude
Crude oil has started the week with negativity to proceed with the sharp downside wave amid intensifying fears in Europe with increasing anticipations that Greece would exit the Euro bloc. The euro outlook is under scrutiny and eyes are on what the finance ministers will discuss today. More downside pressure stemmed from the Saudi Arabia oil minister as he reiterated that supply is still high, keeping the bearish bias intact.
Oil dropped from the opening at $
The two main factors behind this strong downside pressure on crude remain evident, as the political situation in Europe continued to deteriorate after the political parties in Greece failed to form a coalition government for the third time and the anti-austerity parties found more support in the parliament.
The biggest anti- ...
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Bernanke: Even worthy borrowers can't get mortgages
Banks have become so restrictive in making mortgages that many worthy homebuyers are being frozen out of the U.S. housing market, and lending practices are not likely to loosen any time soon, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Thursday.
Speaking via satellite to a banking conference in Chicago, Bernanke highlighted ongoing problems in mortgage finance availability, even though banks are much healthier now as the 2007-2009 financial crisis has receded.
"To be sure, a return to pre-crisis lending standards wouldn't be appropriate," Bernanke said. "However, current standards may be limiting or preventing lending to many creditworthy borrowers."
Lax lending practices, including "liars' loans" handed out to borrowers who provided little or no documentation for jobs and incomes, ...
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Market Drivers - Currencies : 09/05/2012
Today's Comment
Yesterday the gold price was 'tested' and breached initially an important long-term trend level at 1620. Today's chart shows that gold and EURUSD have shown a high degree of positive correlation for a long period of time. What fuels what in the long term (causality) is debatable, but we have checked the past six significant tops/bottoms (over the past year we see the same trend). In five out of six instances (one observation is debatable), gold topped/bottomed 1 – 14 days before EURUSD (average 7 days). Without offering a view on the underlying cause, this means that if gold continues to fall from here, EURUSD will continue to fall. If we see that gold forms a bottom, investors should (if the 'theory' holds true) close their EURUSD positions. Incidentally, the broad ...
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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 09/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The debt crisis damps demand for German products in Europe but Russia, China, India, Brazil and South Africa should generally be able to compensate declining sales."
- Gerd Hassel, an economist at BHF Bank AG
German industrial production unexpectedly soared in March, adding to signs the euro zone’s largest economy is weathering debt crisis. Production jumped 2.8 per cent from February, when it declined 0.2 per cent, said the Economy Ministry on Tuesday.
USD
"People are preparing for a shock that may or may not occur."
- Michael Holland, chairman and founder of New York-based Holland & Co.
U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday as Greece’s bailout pledge came into question.
GBP
"The health of the housing market is a reverberation of consumer confidence and credit ...
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