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Manufacturing Confidence In The EurozoneTitle:
Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 02/12/2011
Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 02/12/2011
U.S. Review
Moderate Improvement in Economic Data
The November employment report showed a big drop in the unemployment rate. However, the overall pace of job growth remains constrained.
Housing market data this week indicated that new home sales rose modestly in October, while home prices continued their downward trajectory.
The latest read on manufacturing sentiment from the ISM-manufacturing survey indicated that output continued to expand at a moderate pace despite the ongoing European debt crisis.
Data Supports Stronger Growth in Q4
This week's data continued to reinforce our view for stronger fourth-quarter economic growth. The housing market data showed sales and new home construction have bottomed, while the ISM- ...
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More aggressive action from the ECB not to be excluded
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK at 0800 GMT (EDT +0400)
USD
In Asian hours risk sentiment has been stable in the absence of any major news. Most Asian stock market indices are trading broadly flat with the Hang Seng down by 0.2%. EURUSD traded 1.3448-1.3489 and USDJPY traded 77.73-77-78. Yesterday, the ECB has hinted that its armory has not been fully deployed yet, and that more aggressive action may be on the cards should politicians deliver on more fiscal integration. German Finance Minister Schaeuble hinted towards concrete plans for fiscal integration. He also said proposals for special funds for sovereign debts of over 60% of GDP would be made at the Dec 9 summit. From that angle policymakers are indeed making more progress. Hence more aggressive action from the ECB cannot be excluded. This in ...
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YouTradeFX Daily Market Analysis : 01/12/2011
Fundamental News:
Today’s highlights
• ECB President Draghi Speaks (EUR, 08:00 GMT)
• ECB President Draghi Speaks (U.S, 15:00 GMT)
• Initial Jobless Claims (U.S, 13:30 GMT)
Six of the world's largest central banks - Fed, ECB, SNB, BoE, BoC, and BoJ, agreed to lower USD swap rates by 50bps and extended the swap lines until Feb. 2013.This action was aimed at boosting Dollar liquidity and is regarded as a backup plan in the event of a worsening in global financial conditions, according to Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co.
The National Association of Realtors released a report on Wednesday showing a much bigger than expected increase in pending home sales in October. U.S Pending home sales index jumped 10.4 percent to 93.3 in October after falling 4.6 percent to 84. ...
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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 30/11/2011
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"Everyone is concerned , not just France. It's all the euro zone countries"
- Francois Baroin, French Finance Minister
Standards & Poor’s credit rating agency may downgrade France’s top notch triple A rating within next ten days, a French newspaper La Tribune reported on Monday. “It could happen within a week, perhaps 10 days.” S&P officials in Europe rejected to comment on rumors.
USD
"Consumers appear to be entering the holiday season in better spirits, though overall readings remain historically weak"
- Lynn Franco, director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center
U.S. consumer confidence rose the most in more than 8 years in November as consumers became more optimistic on the outlook of the country’s economy, the Conference Board Inc. said on ...
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5 Themes for This Week - US NFP, Manufacturing, and QE3; UK Autumn Report; European Banks
1. Non-Farm Payroll Report for November to Provide Some Positive Sentiment?
Global equities are coming off two weeks of consistent losses. This week's key fundamental report - the November non-farm payroll report for the US - could help lift markets out of their malaise as the US is expected to show an increase of between 100,000 and 125,000 jobs for the month.
While that may not be enough new jobs to significantly dent the unemployment rate, it is still a positive sign that the US economy maintains some momentum in the fourth quarter and is able to add jobs.
In fact economic situation the US has been better of late though with the euro zone sovereign debt crisis deteriorating and the possibility of that spilling over into weaker global trade and growth, there is concern that the ...
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Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 28/11/2011
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
On Monday trade German DAX 30 index advanced rapidly on growing investors' confidence that German and French politicians have agreed on a new stability treaty to restrain crisis. DAX index surged 3.6% reaching 5,690.93. Major winners in the index were Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank AG, each added about 7%. Auto producers Daimler AG and BMW gained 7.5% and 4.92% respectively.
USD
Crude oil futures hit the six-week high being traded over USD 99 a barrel. Analysts claim that the increase in oil demand was caused by more positive outlook on the Eurozone economy. On the New York Mercantile Exchange crude oil futures for January delivery were traded at USD 99.72 at early European trade, surging by 3.05%.
GBP
UK has developed a multi-billion Pound programme in order ...
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EU Contagion Spreading to Germany; French and Italian Debt Auctions Next Week
The Week Ahead
Highlights
EU contagion spreading to Germany; French and Italian debt auctions next week
Global growth outlook deteriorates
Risk assets in full retreat
EU contagion spreading to Germany; French and Italian debt auctions next week
On Wednesday, Germany was only able to sell about 2/3 of the EUR 6 bio in 10-year government bonds on offer, making it the sixth of the last eight bund auctions that went undersubscribed. But the amount left on hold was the highest proportion of unsold 10-year debt since 1995. While the German finance ministry downplayed the shortfall as ‘technical' in nature, it strongly suggests that investor fears are now engulfing the bulwark of the Eurozone. The failed auction comes on the back of continued insistence by the German government ...
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Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 24/11/2011
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
On Thursday German DAX 30 index managed to interrupt 8-day losses and edged up 1.5% to 5,543.91 as Ifo reported higher-than-expected business confidence index. German financial institutions recovered immediately: stocks of Commerzbank AG added 7.6%, Allianz SE gained 2.5% while Deutsche Bank AG advanced 2.9%. Downgrade of Portugal offset part of gains but did not break upward trend.
USD
Credit Suisse Group announced it plans to close its US unit, Credit Suisse Private Advisors, as part of strategy aimed at increasing profitability of private banking sector. The US unit will be merged with Credit Suisse's private banking unit in US. The shift will allow the company to streamline its operations and increase efficiency, said Alex Biscaro, Credit Suisse spokesman.
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Forex - FX Risk Consolidates In Thin Holiday Market
Forex News and Events:
The Euro took a massive hit in confidence yesterdays as news that Germany's bund auction technically was a failure. If anyone needed further evidence that the crisis in European peripherals was spreading into the core, well this was clearly it. European yield spreads actually contracted, however for the wrong reasons, as Germany yields climbed well above the US bonds (following a trend of weakness in AAA rated European sovereigns). In fact, the spread between the US and German 10yr yields has not been this wide since 2009. The selling was not just isolated to bonds as equities were also under pressure illustrating a broad liquidation of all assets Eurozone related. Reaction to the failed auction hit the wires attempting some level of damage control. The German ...
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