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The Weekly Bottom Line : 27/02/2012
The Weekly Bottom Line : 27/02/2012
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK
United States
U.S. stock markets have been on a tear over the past several weeks reflecting newfound optimism in the economic outlook.
The housing market is leading the improvement in economic indicators and showed continued momentum this week. Existing home sales rose to levels last seen during the homebuyer tax credit of early 2010. Supported by continued job gains, the housing market looks to be turning a corner.
The one caveat to rising optimism is rising gas prices. As tensions with Iran push up crude oil prices, consumers are feeling it at the pumps. A sustained gain in oil prices presents a key downside risk to recent economic momentum.
Canada
Canada's S&P TSX, which is up a solid 3% over the past two ...
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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 24/02/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"Ifo index provides further evidence that the economic contraction at the end of last year was only a brief stopover"
- Carsten Brzeski, senior economist at ING Group
German business confidence improved more than expected in February, defying fears that the euro zone’s largest economy has slipped into recession.
USD
" are in line with recent U.S. data showing a gradually improving economic backdrop"
- Omer Esiner, a market analyst at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange
The number of Americans claiming for unemployment benefits remained unchanged at 351,000 thousand in the week ended February 18 from the week before, said the Department of Labor on Thursday.
GBP
"Beyond March, the mortgage market is likely to click back into its default mode of flat"
- William ...
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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 23/02/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The euro zone is far from out of the economic woods and faces a hard slog to get back to sustained growth"
- Howard Archer, economist at IHS Global Insight
European services and manufacturing output unexpectedly shrank in February, reviving fears the 17-nation currency bloc is heading towards a recession.
USD
"I don’t think we’re seeing a full-fledged recovery in housing"
- Michelle Meyer, a senior economist at Bank of America Corp.
U.S. home sales rose in January to the highest level since May 2010, a sign the housing market is regaining its footing.
GBP
"Recent data on the domestic and international economies had on balance been more positive than might have been anticipated towards the end of 2011"
- Monetary Policy Committee members
Monetary Policy ...
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Are commodity merchants "swap dealers" by any other name?
(Reuters) - Big energy companies like Royal Dutch Shell and commodity merchants like Cargill have a simple argument in pushing back against looming new swap market rules: We're not a bank, so don't regulate us like one.
But their efforts to avoid being branded a "swap dealer," a designation that brings with it greater scrutiny and onerous new rules, tend to sidestep the fact that, in one small but important way, most of them trade exactly like a bank.
For much of the past decade, companies including BP Plc, U.S. conglomerate Koch and Swiss-based trader Vitol have quietly offered their hedging strategies and risk management savvy to other firms, often going head to head with banks like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to pitch airlines, utilities or producers on ways to hedge prices.
Now, ...
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Risky Assets Gain Ahead of Finance Ministers Meeting, Oil Jumps
Eyeing today’s euro finance ministers meeting with optimism, risky assets maintained the rebound we have seen by the end of the past week. Markets were backed by an implicit agreement among traders that the bailout could pass today.
Comments from the German finance minister spokeswoman also favored the bullish outlook; she expressed her optimism regarding a final agreement mentioning that the euro-area officials made progress in negotiations and the ministry is optimistic that they will reach a deal today. Meanwhile, the Bundesbank mentioned in its regular monthly report that the german and global growth outlook has brightened noticeably.
China’s central bank cut its reserve requirements ratio last night, trying to boost the lending capacity by an estimated 350-400 billion Yuan, the ...
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Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (08:00 GMT)
EUR/USD
Continues to channel lower as fears of Greece’s bailout failure and recent downgrade of European countries credit rate, put additional pressure on the pair. Break below key near-term support at 1.3025 and figure support at 1.3000, sets scope for fresh leg lower, with immediate target at 1.2970, Fib 50% of 1.2622/1.3320 and 1.2930, 25 Jan low. Negative near-term studies keep the focus at the downside, immediate resistance at 1.3025, previous support, ahead of 20 day SMA at 1.3050 and previous low at 1.3078, expected to limit corrective rallies.
Res: 1.3030, 1.3050, 1.3078, 1.3100
Sup: 1.2970, 1.2930, 1.2900, 1.2875
GBP/USD
Near-term price action shows the pair remains under pressure, as recovery attempt from fresh low at 1.5643 was limited by 20 day SMA that maintains short- ...
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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 13/02/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The Greek offer is not sufficient and they have to go away to come up with a revised plan"
- Bertrand Benoit, a spokesman for the German Finance Ministry
Leaders of Greece’s governing coalition rejected German demands for additional austerity measures hours after German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told legislators in Berlin that the nation was missing deficit targets.
USD
"We will see a widening trade deficit this year as imports grow faster than exports"
- Jay Bryson, a senior global economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC
U.S. trade deficit widened to a six-month high of $48.8 billion in December, up by $1.7 billion compared to November, the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced on Friday.
GBP
" is going to continue to head downwards at a rapid ...
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Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 11/02/2012
Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 11/02/2012
U.S. Review
The Moderate Economic Recovery is Still Underway
Consumer credit surged by $19.3 billion in December, the second consecutive solid monthly increase reflecting growth in credit cards, student loans and car loans.
Weekly first-time jobless claims fell by 15k to 358k and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey showed the number of job openings in December rose 2.5 percent.
Data on international trade show the nominal U.S. trade deficit widened 3.7 percent to $48.8 billion in December from $47.1 billion in November.
Light Week for Data, but the Economy is Still Improving
Despite headlines dominated by the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis, the flow of economic releases in the U.S. this week was fairly light and ...
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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 10/02/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"Europe may soon have defused the Greek issue for a while"
- Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank
Greece leaders Thursday agreed a deal on reforms and austerity measures in return for a 130 billion euro bailout from international lenders which will help the country to avoid a messy default.
USD
"Initial claims have been consistently falling since September and have reached levels that should be consistent with solid payroll gains"
- Stephen Stanley, chief economist of Pierpont Securities
The number of Americans claiming for unemployment insurance payments fell to 358 thousand last week from 373 thousand in the week ended January 31, said the Department of Labor on Thursday.
GBP
" give hope that the first-quarter outturn will be better than ...
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