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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 09/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The debt crisis damps demand for German products in Europe but Russia, China, India, Brazil and South Africa should generally be able to compensate declining sales."
- Gerd Hassel, an economist at BHF Bank AG
German industrial production unexpectedly soared in March, adding to signs the euro zone’s largest economy is weathering debt crisis. Production jumped 2.8 per cent from February, when it declined 0.2 per cent, said the Economy Ministry on Tuesday.
USD
"People are preparing for a shock that may or may not occur."
- Michael Holland, chairman and founder of New York-based Holland & Co.
U.S. stocks fell on Tuesday as Greece’s bailout pledge came into question.
GBP
"The health of the housing market is a reverberation of consumer confidence and credit ...
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Technical analysis of the XAU/USD (Gold) pair on May 9th, 2012
Commentary of the XAU/USD (Gold) pair:
The pair XAU/USD has suddenly validated the breakout of 1630 and 1620 points, offering new sell signals.
The pair is currently testing the support at 1600 points and also the lower band of its medium term bearish channel (purple lines).
All indicators are bearish.
We maintain to trade only short positions as far as 1630 points is resistance.
The breakout of 1600 and 1580 will both give a new sell signal and open the way towards 1550 points.
In case of return above 1630 points, we will wait the breakout of 1650 to advise long positions.
See the previous analysis of the XAU/USD pair of May 8th, 2012
XAU/USD Analysis
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Political Instability drops major currencies
Announcements of central banks’ Governors and instability in political side in Greece participated on today’s drop for major currencies, leaving the power to American dollar from the beginning of today’s session, where Greek politicians failed to maintain a government which made the Euro hits the lowest in more than three months against dollar.
From another side, Julia Gillard, Australia’s prime minister said that current budget surplus gives the chance to central bank to move on interest rate in order to ease the strong Australian dollar, where stronger Australian dollar may hinder manufacturing and tourism revenues.
Furthermore, Australian dollar fell to four months low against dollar, to reach 1.0058 from 1.0098 with high of 1.0115 and now at 1.0059.
NZD/USD pair fell for the second ...
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Gold falls as euro feels pinch of election results
(Reuters) - Gold fell for a second day on Tuesday, under pressure from the slide in the euro on the back of political uncertainty in Greece and a change of president in France, while Chinese import figures did little to offset the impact of the weaker currency.
Data showing a sharp jump in exports of gold in March from Hong Kong to mainland China, soon to be the world's top bullion consumer, did little to support the price, but reinforced analyst expectations for gold to benefit in the longer term from Chinese demand.
In the shorter term, however, gold was more affected by the decline in the euro.
The correlation between the single European currency and the gold price hit its highest in four months in late April, meaning the two are more likely to move in lockstep than inversely to each ...
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Technical analysis of the XAU/USD (Gold) pair on May 8th, 2012
Commentary of the XAU/USD (Gold) pair:
The pair continues to move on the upper band of its medium term bearish channel (purple lines).
The pair is still moving below the lower band of its long term bullish channel.
Indicators are globaly bearish.
The pair is currently testing the support at 1630 points.
We maintain to trade only short positions as far as 1640 points is resistance.
The breakout of 1630 and 1620 will both give a new sell signal and open the way towards 1600 points.
In case of return above 1640 points, we will wait the breakout of 1650 to advise long positions.
See the previous analysis of the XAU/USD pair of May 7th, 2012
XAU/USD Analysis
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Old feud appears to sink Obama's Fed nominees
(Reuters) - President Barack Obama's two nominees to the Federal Reserve appear likely to fall victim to a long-running political feud, which would leave the central bank short-handed as it struggles with tough regulatory and monetary policy questions.
Republican Senator David Vitter has demanded that the Senate hold a debate before any vote on the nominees, which would require Democratic leaders to muster a super majority to move forward - a hurdle that may be too high to clear.
As a result, the Senate may end up abandoning the nominees, Harvard economist Jeremy Stein and investment banker Jerome Powell, and leave a decision on filling out the normally seven-member Fed board until after this year's presidential election.
"I refuse to provide Chairman Bernanke with two more rubber ...
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Anti-austerity ballot backlash rattles euro zone
(Reuters) - An anti-austerity backlash by voters in Greece and France shook the euro zone on Monday, causing jitters for the euro currency and stock markets amid deepening doubts about whether Greece has a future in the single currency.
Greece, where Europe's sovereign debt crisis began in 2009, slid into turmoil after an election on Sunday boosted left and right-wing fringe parties, stripping the two mainstream parties that backed a painful EU/IMF bailout of their parliamentary majority.
Uncertainty over whether the country could avert bankruptcy and stay in the euro deepened on Monday when Antonis Samaras, leader of the conservative New Democracy party which won the biggest share of the vote, failed within hours to cobble together a government.
Samaras had had three days to form a ...
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USD Mixed amid EU Political Uncertainty
USD is trading mixed against the majors - weaker against the commodity currencies (CAD, AUD, NOK, NZD) and stronger against most European FX. Uncertainty arising from elections in Europe saw an increase in risk aversion which is seeing UST yields lower. The decline in Treasury yields is also a result of Fed policy expectations as hopes for QE3 are supported following Friday's weak employment report. Despite the option of QE3 being on the table, we maintain the view that it will take a significant deterioration for the Fed to provide more stimulus. While both risk aversion and QE3 hopes depress Treasury yields, they have adverse effects on the USD. Risk aversion is supportive of the buck as investors seek safety in Treasuries and QE3 speculation weakens the dollar as it suggests the Fed ...
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Politics Rule
Markets woke up on a strong bearish tone as political jitters from France and Greece dominate the scenes, sparking a flight to safety across the global markets.
The anti-austerity French presidential candid Mr. Hollande was officially elected the new president, which is considered another political issue that may add further complications to the already uncertain outlook of the euro area. The new president has clearly disclosed his tendency towards less austerity and further growth, which may be a setback to the current fiscal pact and reforms that Sarkozy and Merkel pledged to tackle the debt crisis.
On the other hand, the two main pro-bailout political parties in Greece fell short in the parliamentary elections, as Greeks gave their votes to parties that have always stood against the ...
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